Ibovespa Rises Ahead of New Election Poll

The Ibovespa rose more than 1% to trade above 170,000 on Friday ahead of a new election poll. Datafolha is due to release a new survey on the outlook for the presidential election in October. On Monday, a BTG/Nexus poll showed President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, viewed by markets as more fiscally restrictive in a time where elevated domestic yields have dampened business activity, in a technical tie in a potential runof. Financials advanced, with Itaú, Bradesco, Itaúsa, Banco do Brasil and B3 gaining about 1% each. Credit-sensitive stocks also benefited from lower oil prices, which pushed bond yields down. Elsewhere, Vale added nearly 1.5% as iron ore prices firmed. Meanwhile, Petrobras (+0.5%) said it had expressed interest in offshore exploration blocks in Ghana.

The Ibovespa edged 0.1% higher to close at 167,927 on Thursday, supported by gains in commodity-related stocks. Petrobras rose 2.8%, tracking a strong increase in oil futures, which also boosted PRIO, up 0.8%. Oil prices continued to rise as the war with Iran appeared increasingly far from a resolution after US President Donald Trump announced a package of measures aimed at hurting Iran’s economy. Vale jumped 2.6%, despite a decline in Chinese iron ore futures. Steelmakers, however, remained under pressure amid expectations of a possible agreement between Canada and the US that could lead to lower US tariffs on Canadian steel, making Brazilian companies less competitive. Gerdau fell 2.5%. Banks struggled as bond yields moved higher on energy-driven inflation concerns. Banco do Brasil fell 0.2%, Bradesco dropped 1.7% and Itaú lost 2.2%. Elsewhere, Ultrapar gained 1.1% after brokerages raised their price targets. Marcopolo rose 6.5% following a share buyback and dividend announcement.

The Ibovespa edged lower to trade around 167,500 on Thursday as oil prices rose, increasing inflationary pressures. Crude prices jumped after US President Donald Trump announced a package of measures aimed at hurting Iran’s economy. Bond yields moved higher, weighing on financial stocks and the broader market. Itaú and B3 fell 0.5% each, while Itaúsa and Banco do Brasil shed nearly 1%. Meanwhile, iron ore prices in China closed lower amid persistently weak steel demand, dragging Vale and CSN Mineração down 1% each. Steelmakers also posted losses, with Gerdau falling about 5%. Other notable laggards included Axia (-1%), WEG (-1%), and Embraer (-1%). In contrast, Petrobras helped limit the index’s losses, rising 1% on higher oil prices.