Hong Kong Business Morale Improves in Q4

Business confidence in Hong Kong slightly worsened to -3 in the first quarter of 2026, from -2 in the previous three-month period. The share of respondents expecting better business conditions declined to 11% from 13% in Q4 2025, while those anticipating worse conditions eased slightly to 14% from 15%. Sentiment continued to deteriorate in import/export trade and wholesale (-12 vs -11 in Q4), transportation, storage and courier services (-13 vs -11), and professional and business services (-12 vs -9). In addition, sentiment turned pessimistic in retail (-1 vs 14), accommodation and food services (-22 vs 10), and real estate (-4 vs 7). On the other hand, sentiment was unchanged in manufacturing (-15), while it improved modestly in construction (-23 vs -24) and information and communication (-8 vs -16).

Business confidence in Hong Kong rose to -2 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from -8 in the previous quarter. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve rose to 13% in Q4 2025 (vs 10% in Q3), while those anticipating worse conditions declined to 15% (vs 18% in Q3). Confidence strengthened in financing and insurance (13 vs 11), real estate (7 vs 3), and turned positive in accommodation and food services (10 vs -16) and retail (14 vs -14). Sentiment also improved though remained negative in import/export trade and wholesale (-11 vs -18), transportation, storage and courier services (-11 vs -31), and professional and business services (-9 vs -14). In contrast, sentiment weakened further in manufacturing (-15 vs -2), information and communications (-16 vs -9), and construction (-24 vs -22), reflecting continued sector-specific challenges.

Business confidence in Hong Kong improved slightly to -8 in the third quarter of 2025 from -9 in the previous quarter. The share of respondents expecting business conditions to improve edged up to 10% (vs 9% in Q2), while those anticipating worse conditions remained unchanged at 18%. Confidence strengthened for financing and insurance (11 vs 8 in Q2) and turned positive for real estate (3 vs -11). Sentiment also improved—though remained negative—for manufacturing (-2 vs -20), import/export trade and wholesale (-18 vs -19), accommodation and food services (-16 vs -37), and information and communications (-9 vs -17). In contrast, sentiment deteriorated further for construction (-22 vs -16), transportation, storage and courier services (-31 vs -25), and professional and business services (-14 vs -6). Meanwhile, confidence in retail slipped into negative territory at -14, down from 4 in the previous quarter.