Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.6 0.4 0.6 1 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.3 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -35527.00 -35433 -33755 -32582 -31581 -24754 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 37 33 33 37.12 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 7.81 7.73 7.65 7.58 7.5 6.64 [+]
Stock Market 28692.80 28200 27900 27600 27300 24200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.74 1.74 1.75 1.77 1.79 1.98 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.00 0.6 0.4 0.6 1 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.80 2.3 1.9 2.2 5.4 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 320.91 310 333 335 338 354 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 602926.00 645498 617293 610572 632871 630512 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 648773.00 663110 642040 645026 656461 651998 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 142102.00 144296 133485 140365 134058 137610 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36725.60 37100 38055 38055 37228 40120 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 54279.20 53250 54753 54799 54844 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 436.00 359 363 410 388 392 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 28504.00 27774 28383 28038 27566 27359 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6688.00 6943 6436 6626 7057 6957 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 109459.00 102050 102022 107518 103610 103624 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 537653.00 563409 549594 539818 549485 552273 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 35569.00 37061 38050 36400 37443 36960 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 9035.00 7815 7669 9076 9851 7826 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.10 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3841.20 3837 3837 3836 3836 3831 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 130.00 130 130 130 129 128 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40 61.36 61.41 61.43 61.45 61.64 percent [+]
Labour Costs 141.70 141 149 141 137 140 Index Points [+]
Productivity 160.10 163 163 164 164 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 69592.00 68568 68859 67015 67341 62370 [+]
Wages 15702.00 15704 15739 15719 15713 15437 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 211.50 212 213 213 213 211 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 34.50 34.5 34.5 34.5 35.32 40 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.37 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.44 7.7 Million [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.50 6.3 6.05 6.07 5.97 5.58 percent [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 64 64 64 64 63.04 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 64 64 64 64 63.04 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.8 3.3 3.1 2.3 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.80 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 104.00 104 105 105 105 104 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 110.60 112 111 111 111 109 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 99.60 99.82 99.79 99.74 99.69 99.18 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.50 101 102 102 102 101 Index Points [+]
CPI Transportation 103.90 104 104 104 104 105 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.40 2.48 2.53 2.58 2.62 2.84 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.28 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.36 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.70 2.26 1.66 1.25 1 1.01 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.76 0.94 1.17 1.39 1.6 3.01 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 421209.34 420362 420217 420078 419940 418697 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2333407.00 2349754 2348554 2347570 2346618 2338109 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 13436426.40 13524111 13538706 13540361 13537382 13488353 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 13483816.10 13572463 13587296 13588960 13585876 13535148 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 419200.00 423131 424214 424300 424052 420440 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 21935094.05 22153347 22183118 22186512 22178915 22044618 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8951277.64 9093326 9126650 9138156 9139067 9067477 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0.38 0.49 0.61 0.72 1.52 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -35527.00 -35433 -33755 -32582 -31581 -24754 HKD Million [+]
Exports 332663.00 327543 325595 323675 321775 305519 HKD Million [+]
Imports 368190.00 364233 362667 361262 359880 347852 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 16409.00 30300 23482 21126 30395 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.50 4.1 3.9 3.9 5.75 3.1 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 99.10 99.47 99.77 100 100 102 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -45533.00 -36723 -15387 -43051 -52088 -31334 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5023433.00 4839500 4812000 4781400 4762300 4605600 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 11670549.00 12329727 12563305 12721195 12831519 12684866 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 13356.84 13590 13577 13564 13551 12979 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 37 33 33 37.12 31 percent [+]
Government Budget 4.80 3.42 3.13 2.84 2.55 1.43 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -28747.00 85250 18430 -33513 -18308 50697 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 59035.00 59296 63342 60040 60529 59783 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 61241.00 183839 117296 59542 82335 158522 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 89988.00 89860 90744 89990 90289 89311 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 6.00 6.89 8.02 8.64 8.77 8.15 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.20 50.2 50.32 50.14 50.01 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 0.40 1.1 -1.14 -1.66 -2.06 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 235.00 2087 3444 2677 2161 2577 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 8738.00 7255 6791 6383 6035 4573 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2761.00 2723 2678 2641 2608 2463 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.43 5.42 5.41 5.41 5.35 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 8 9 10 11 12 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 4.00 4 3 3 2 2 [+]
Corruption Index 77.00 78 78 78 77 78 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 15.00 14 14 14 14 13 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.00 104 104 103 102 101 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.20 4.8 4.08 4.3 4.48 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 428376.00 423380 407041 423284 408806 418111 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5.18 5.39 5.58 5.76 6.91 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 67.60 67.51 67.41 67.29 67.17 65.93 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom -3.50 1.73 0.85 0.66 0.64 0.66 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 154.31 154 153 152 151 141 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 50.40 50.17 50.09 50 49.92 49.14 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.58 16.59 16.6 16.61 16.68 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15.11 15.14 15.16 15.19 15.37 percent [+]