Hong Kong - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.80 3 2.7 3.5 2.6 3.9 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.2 3.8 percent
Interest Rate 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.5 2.75 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade -55504.00 -116963 -79943 -97893 -104857 -122075 HKD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 33 33 33 32 31 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 7.85
7.85 7.85 7.85 7.85 7.85
Stock Market 30588.04
points
28429 27382 26369 25398 21852
Government Bond 10Y 2.25
percent
2.13 2.32 2.53 2.75 3.86
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20
percent
0.6 0.8 0.5 0.8 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.70
percent
2.2 2.9 2.6 3 3.2
GDP 320.91
USD Billion
326 328 330 351 354
GDP Constant Prices 652077.00
HKD Million
610057 656388 698319 630504 741565
Gross National Product 708633.00
HKD Million
657173 688208 716071 646236 760416
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 131961.00
HKD Million
142494 136798 159975 131223 169882
GDP per capita 36725.60
USD
38055 38055 38055 39064 40120
GDP per capita PPP 54279.20
USD
54602 54873 54040 54983 55560
GDP From Agriculture 453.00
HKD Million
443 393 392 390 416
GDP From Construction 33256.00
HKD Million
29115 28613 31988 30451 33969
GDP From Manufacturing 6870.00
HKD Million
6762 7097 6975 6408 7407
GDP From Public Administration 113669.00
HKD Million
110663 111750 111807 105322 118731
GDP From Services 624615.00
HKD Million
543567 589448 633318 559483 672538
GDP From Transport 39146.00
HKD Million
35960 39956 41775 39614 44362
GDP From Utilities 7697.00
HKD Million
9134 10614 7836 7894 8321
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80
percent
3 2.7 3.5 2.6 3.9
Employed Persons 3866.60
Thousand
3867 3875 3878 3881 3894
Unemployed Persons 112.90
Thousand
111 112 112 112 112
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.20
percent
61.07 61.17 61.14 61.15 61.15
Productivity 160.10
Index Points
160 162 163 163 167
Job Vacancies 74041.00
71601 71594 71594 71594 71594
Wages 15819.00
HKD/Month
16200 16400 16400 16350 17300
Wages in Manufacturing 214.80
Index Points
217 218 218 221 220
Minimum Wages 34.50
HKD/Hour
34.5 34.5 34.5 36.5 36.5
Population 7.41
Million
7.5 7.43 7.5 7.44 7.7
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.30
percent
5.13 5.09 5.12 5.11 5.11
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.3 2.5 2.5 2.2 3.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.50
Index Points
107 107 108 109 115
GDP Deflator 105.50
Index Points
105 105 105 105 105
Producer Prices 110.30
Index Points
114 115 114 114 122
Export Prices 103.40
Index Points
105 104 102 101 101
Import Prices 103.80
Index Points
102 101 101 101 101
Producer Prices Change 3.50
percent
3.5 3.4 3 3.2 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent
0.38 0.22 0.25 0.25 0.25
Food Inflation 3.50
percent
3.7 3.88 4.03 4.14 4.41
CPI Transportation 104.80
Index Points
106 107 107 107 114
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.00
percent
2.25 2.25 2.5 2.75 3.25
Interbank Rate 1.75
percent
1.81 1.81 2.06 2.31 2.81
Money Supply M0 464125.00
HKD Million
470908 480341 489984 499502 602053
Money Supply M1 2473426.00
HKD Million
2440709 2444973 2446190 2446424 2446489
Money Supply M2 13935534.00
HKD Million
13989334 13838647 13678717 13567770 13583786
Money Supply M3 13987761.00
HKD Million
14376498 14623145 14863587 15102006 17669248
Foreign Exchange Reserves 434400.00
USD Million
439649 427480 416639 411555 419353
Banks Balance Sheet 23561419.93
HKD Million
24217685 24698592 25143478 25573470 29999466
Loans to Private Sector 9652390.00
HKD Million
9815246 9994167 10150216 10287500 11046638
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade -55504.00
HKD Million
-116963 -79943 -97893 -104857 -122075
Exports 347732.00
HKD Million
278442 276160 273508 270945 247033
Imports 403236.00
HKD Million
395405 356103 363755 375801 369109
Current Account 15179.00
HKD Million
15362 60309 31300 60128 26300
Current Account to GDP 4.20
percent
3.9 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.1
Terms of Trade 99.70
Index Points
103 103 101 100 100
Capital Flows -32013.00
HKD Million
-34135 -92783 -36116 -90869 -45524
Tourist Arrivals 4995122.00
4979500 4956200 4961100 4955500 4956300
Gold Reserves 2.10
Tonnes
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Foreign Direct Investment 13356.84
HKD Billion
13761 13848 13934 14102 16376
External Debt 12220499.00
HKD Million
11907431 11902539 11903114 11903046 11903053
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.40
percent
33 33 33 32 31
Government Budget 2.20
percent of GDP
2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.5
Government Budget Value 87006.00
HKD Million
18242 5702 9482 8537 8919
Government Spending 69090.00
HKD Million
59516 63046 63297 66154 67217
Government Revenues 182919.00
HKD Million
110579 97577 102043 100509 100901
Fiscal Expenditure 95913.00
HKD Million
92337 91875 92014 91972 91982
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 8.00
Index Points
4.3 4.45 4.46 4.46 4.46
Manufacturing PMI 49.10
51.4 51.9 49.4 50.2 51.8
Industrial Production 0.60
percent
-0.56 -1.17 2.5 -2.08 3.4
Changes in Inventories 542.00
HKD Million
2781 61.58 1994 621 1205
Bankruptcies 12484.00
Companies
11089 10326 9939 9747 9565
Car Registrations 2554.00
2627 2643 2654 2662 2687
Internet Speed 21908.83
KBps
22924 23243 23068 23153 23431
IP Addresses 3132077.00
IP
3357071 3396752 3435135 3472362 3848651
Competitiveness Index 5.53
Points
5.46 5.46 5.46 5.5 5.45
Competitiveness Rank 6.00
7 7 7 7 7
Ease of Doing Business 5.00
4 3 3 3 2
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
77 77 77 77 77
Corruption Rank 13.00
13 13 12 12 14
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 108.00
Index Points
102 102 102 102 102
Retail Sales YoY 10.00
percent
14.66 15.38 3.9 15.53 4.4
Consumer Spending 450653.00
HKD Million
432264 425450 468197 420751 497191
Personal Savings 0.01
percent
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Bank Lending Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Retail Sales Mom -12.84
percent
21.19 8.42 1.03 2.14 9.13
Households Debt To Gdp 69.30
percent of GDP
68.9 68.9 68.9 68.9 68.9
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 173.01
Index points
180 183 184 185 186
Home Ownership Rate 49.20
percent
50.08 50.24 50.39 50.36 50.14
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50
percent
16.5 16.5 16.5 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Temperature 28.52
celsius
25.1 28.03 21.08 16.66 23.21