Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy.


Overview Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.20 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.00 2 2.8 3.3 3.1 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -35648.00 -36388 -36458 -36470 -36477 -36483 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 37 37 33 33 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Currency 7.81 7.89 7.97 8.04 8.12 8.98 [+]
Stock Market 26389.46 25100 24900 24600 24400 21600 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.60 1.61 1.62 1.64 1.65 1.83 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.30 2.5 2.3 1.9 2.2 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 320.91 310 310 336 339 364 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 611429.00 597798 596585 596897 596817 596833 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 626565.00 666049 690171 649098 649595 702519 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 126753.00 135111 145396 130820 136751 139888 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36725.60 37100 37100 38055 38055 40120 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 54279.20 53250 53250 55252 55359 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 376.00 367 359 390 409 384 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 29358.00 27248 29513 30293 29123 32250 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6221.00 7022 6828 6142 6597 6704 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 102254.00 101294 101229 101244 101241 101242 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 543187.00 536855 536010 536268 536189 536208 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 38460.00 37727 37727 37727 37727 37727 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 7664.00 9852 7743 7616 9090 7577 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.20 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3817.90 3824 3824 3826 3827 3834 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 126.30 124 123 124 123 123 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.10 61.13 61.12 61.13 61.12 61.12 percent [+]
Labour Costs 141.70 139 139 139 139 139 Index Points [+]
Productivity 155.20 157 157 158 159 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 70463.00 70590 68673 70901 69291 69533 [+]
Wages 15451.00 15685 15741 15798 15847 16160 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 207.20 210 210 211 212 215 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 34.50 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 40 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.37 7.4 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.7 Million [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38 5.38 percent [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
PRICES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00 2 2.8 3.3 3.1 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.30 105 105 106 106 109 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 102.60 104 104 104 105 107 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 108.20 110 110 110 111 111 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 99.30 99.16 99.14 99.12 99.11 99.02 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.10 99.19 99.19 99.19 99.18 99.18 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 103.90 105 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 2.40 1.98 1.91 1.91 1.89 1.86 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.14 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.00 0.68 0.45 0.37 1.11 1.65 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.5 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.77 0.79 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 410229.00 420297 427412 434480 441534 510907 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2299680.00 2341989 2386653 2432297 2477802 2923713 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 13187015.00 13493244 13724417 13954985 14184924 16448652 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 13232947.00 13541553 13773952 14005717 14236831 16511173 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 408000.00 415316 422035 428597 435044 493749 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 21459515.00 21935617 22263560 22581942 22895410 25827389 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8677867.00 9040510 9291189 9516158 9717545 10866749 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Balance of Trade -35648.00 -36388 -36458 -36470 -36477 -36483 HKD Million [+]
Exports 303105.00 305997 304874 305213 305298 305270 HKD Million [+]
Imports 338753.00 342620 341920 341869 341864 341861 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 16669.00 38455 30300 21049 22462 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.50 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.1 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 100.20 100 100 100 100 100 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 12087.00 -59800 -49313 -5675 -12831 -33514 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4587014.00 4635225 4607880 4614327 4618833 4617229 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 10988936.00 11407339 11636881 11669447 11711421 11635375 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 13356.84 13848 13934 14102 14269 15782 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 37 37 33 33 31 percent [+]
Government Budget 4.80 2.76 3.42 3.13 2.84 1.43 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 23542.00 -19758 88716 20453 -37222 57607 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 64788.00 61620 61891 66392 61797 67047 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 116549.00 75455 186846 116557 57422 166299 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 93007.00 91227 89311 91096 89314 90004 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Business Confidence 5.00 5.07 6.84 3.65 5.42 5.83 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.10 50.2 50.2 50.95 50.95 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 0.20 0.4 1.1 0.33 0.26 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 5344.00 3186 3700 4344 4321 3993 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 8222.00 8932 8781 8696 8660 8652 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 2391.00 3303 3299 3302 3302 3302 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.44 5.44 5.46 5.46 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 8 8 9 9 9 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 4.00 4 4 4 4 4 [+]
Corruption Index 77.00 77 77 77 77 77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 15.00 15 14 14 13 13 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 93.00 91.48 91.13 90.71 90.8 90.9 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 0.70 3 4.8 1.05 1.05 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 408709.00 408747 427441 408785 427403 427217 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 67.70 68.49 68.77 68.98 69.15 69.78 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom 2.60 -0.14 0.69 0.54 0.68 0.69 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Housing Index 151.25 158 159 160 160 160 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 50.40 49.93 49.65 49.53 49.42 47.89 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.57 16.57 16.59 16.6 16.68 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]