Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy.


Overview Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.20 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 2.00 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.75 3.75 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -34131.00 -37553 -37357 -37814 -38086 -38257 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 37 37 37 32.21 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Currency 7.79 7.85 7.93 8.16 8.08 9.32 [+]
Stock Market 25639.27 24000 23800 23000 23300 19400 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.30 1.64 1.65 1.67 1.68 1.94 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.30 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.9 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 309.23 310 310 310 324 363 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 611429.00 593081 597798 596585 596897 596833 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 682811.00 638304 668444 693425 657895 711278 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 126753.00 135128 135111 145396 130820 139888 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36173.30 36100 36100 36100 37055 37120 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 53463.00 53250 53250 53250 54209 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 330.00 366 333 331 300 336 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 28203.00 26334 26503 28278 27562 28976 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6956.00 6807 7130 6920 6347 6872 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 100838.00 104503 103561 102823 100137 107489 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 576119.00 579552 579959 579841 579875 579867 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 36979.00 34084 38889 36693 36435 36332 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 7807.00 9130 9871 7770 7865 7672 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.20 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3816.70 3820 3823 3824 3826 3833 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 127.20 127 128 128 128 128 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.10 61.03 61.08 61.07 61.07 61.07 percent [+]
Labour Costs 141.70 139 139 139 139 139 Index Points [+]
Productivity 155.20 157 157 157 158 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 67141.00 66129 67283 65860 66715 65494 [+]
Wages 15451.00 15595 15685 15741 15798 16160 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 206.80 210 211 212 213 218 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 34.50 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 40 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.37 7.29 7.31 7.33 7.33 7.47 Million [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.40 5.57 5.58 5.56 5.57 5.56 percent [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
PRICES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.5 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.50 105 105 106 106 111 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 102.60 103 104 104 104 107 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 106.50 106 107 107 107 107 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 99.20 99.14 99.08 99.05 99.02 98.84 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 99.60 99.87 100 100 100 101 Index Points [+]
Cpi Transportation 104.20 104 105 105 105 105 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.90 1.35 1.16 1 0.87 0.54 percent [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60 0.11 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 percent [+]
Producer Prices Change 4.00 2.31 0.68 0.45 0.45 1.65 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.5 1.75 3.75 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 0.77 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.85 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 406663.00 415995 423014 430358 437697 516860 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2228810.00 2277284 2321544 2365840 2409952 2884150 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 12928850.00 13150593 13371215 13591221 13810538 16180188 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12977811.00 13201321 13423458 13644979 13865792 16250568 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 395548.00 399141 404505 409902 415221 468542 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 21058870.00 21370479 21667590 21960435 22249724 25188061 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 8395123.00 8613947 8823180 9011324 9179984 10202837 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Balance of Trade -34131.00 -37553 -37357 -37814 -38086 -38257 HKD Million [+]
Exports 305389.00 318376 308535 307076 307822 307889 HKD Million [+]
Imports 339520.00 348832 343527 342773 342759 342758 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 34834.00 29000 39165 30300 26125 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.50 4.19 4.1 4 4.24 4.73 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 99.70 99.96 99.93 99.95 99.95 99.95 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -66102.00 -10764 -55868 -55200 -22598 -40114 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 4586186.00 4769698 4771932 4732819 4745090 4746815 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
External Debt 10313247.00 10430416 10447547 10462238 10469414 10484155 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 12844.17 12544 12843 13141 13283 15549 HKD Billion [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.00 37 37 37 32.21 31 percent [+]
Government Budget 1.30 1.78 1.06 0.33 0.53 0.75 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value 108170.00 -34940 -18274 88780 13846 56947 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 64788.00 59610 61620 61891 66392 67047 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 196647.00 58938 75236 187455 122470 168036 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 88477.00 87703 90196 88570 89925 89132 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Business Confidence 5.00 4 5.07 6.84 3.65 5.83 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.10 49.3 50.2 50.2 50.58 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production -0.80 0.8 0.4 1.1 -1.04 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 5344.00 4359 3186 3700 4344 3993 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 10237.00 9528 9180 9049 8980 8932 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 5804.00 3980 3861 3846 3838 3833 Cars [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.48 5.44 5.44 5.44 5.46 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 9.00 8 8 8 9 9 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 4.00 5 4 4 4 4 [+]
Corruption Index 77.00 76 77 77 77 77 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 15.00 15 15 14 14 13 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 93.00 90.16 91.48 91.13 90.71 90.9 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.70 2.6 3 4.8 -0.76 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 408709.00 427478 408747 427441 408785 427217 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 5 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 66.70 66.88 66.92 66.97 67.01 67.11 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom -19.20 3.13 0.66 0.32 0.78 0.7 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Housing Index 147.24 150 152 153 153 153 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 50.40 50.21 49.93 49.65 49.53 47.89 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 16.57 16.57 16.57 16.59 16.68 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]