Hong Kong - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 1.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.80 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 2.25 2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade -47109.00 -47758 -49998 -50005 -49751 -49814 HKD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 33 33 32 32 31 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 7.81
7.85 7.85 7.85 7.85 7.85
Stock Market 27953.58
points
28019 27626 27240 26859 25387
Government Bond 10Y 2.46
percent
2.24 2.29 2.35 2.4 2.62
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20
percent
1.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.50
percent
3.1 3.5 3 5.2 3.2
GDP 341.45
USD Billion
354 354 365 365 404
GDP Constant Prices 634683.00
HKD Million
667442 716030 670806 667687 760372
Gross National Product 689136.00
HKD Million
698223 733435 692329 724971 778855
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 141005.00
HKD Million
135703 158737 136496 148337 168567
GDP per capita 37927.13
USD
38055 38055 39066 39066 40120
GDP per capita PPP 56054.92
USD
56502 56502 57406 57406 57760
GDP From Agriculture 502.00
HKD Million
468 469 445 528 498
GDP From Construction 30703.00
HKD Million
30730 34420 34379 32300 36552
GDP From Manufacturing 6859.00
HKD Million
7173 7110 6534 7216 7551
GDP From Public Administration 118279.00
HKD Million
116971 117647 113782 124430 124933
GDP From Services 565334.00
HKD Million
597287 646477 592136 594731 686512
GDP From Transport 35756.00
HKD Million
38454 40516 40012 37615 43025
GDP From Utilities 9345.00
HKD Million
10478 7966 8214 9831 8460
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80
percent
2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
Employed Persons 3882.40
Thousand
3876 3879 3883 3885 3896
Unemployed Persons 117.40
Thousand
117 118 118 118 118
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.40
percent
61.18 61.18 61.18 61.18 61.18
Productivity 166.00
Index Points
163 164 165 166 179
Job Vacancies 79203.00
76437 76509 77579 76601 76916
Wages 15897.00
HKD/Month
16400 16400 16350 16201 17300
Wages in Manufacturing 215.00
Index Points
218 218 219 220 220
Minimum Wages 34.50
HKD/Hour
34.5 34.5 36.5 36.5 36.5
Population 7.41
Million
7.44 7.5 7.46 7.47 7.7
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.20
percent
6.39 6.16 6.15 6.18 6.17
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 107.20
Index Points
107 108 109 110 114
GDP Deflator 106.70
Index Points
107 108 109 110 116
Producer Prices 114.80
Index Points
116 115 117 120 123
Export Prices 103.70
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
Import Prices 104.80
Index Points
104 105 105 105 106
Producer Prices Change 3.80
percent
3.9 4 4.2 4.5 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.23 0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25
Food Inflation 3.50
percent
5.21 5.63 5.9 6.1 6.61
CPI Transportation 105.40
Index Points
107 107 108 109 112
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.25
percent
2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.25
Interbank Rate 2.13
percent
2.38 2.63 2.63 2.88 3.13
Money Supply M0 461286.79
HKD Million
469719 477810 486201 494471 575630
Money Supply M1 2496242.30
HKD Million
2520118 2515381 2514572 2514422 2514393
Money Supply M2 13985838.50
HKD Million
14066552 14247840 14436329 14624680 16465667
Money Supply M3 14037291.30
HKD Million
14117674 14299285 14488430 14677467 16524400
Foreign Exchange Reserves 424900.00
USD Million
436400 441800 440700 447000 470000
Banks Balance Sheet 23632855.48
HKD Million
23613303 23533097 23504525 23492865 23486308
Loans to Private Sector 9773536.81
HKD Million
9851544 9921108 9986449 10044228 10345534
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0.25 0.5 0.5 0.75 1
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -47109.00
HKD Million
-47758 -49998 -50005 -49751 -49814
Exports 359125.00
HKD Million
343784 338009 338422 338813 338743
Imports 406234.00
HKD Million
391541 388185 388427 388563 388557
Current Account 15660.00
HKD Million
45183 31300 19776 23456 26300
Current Account to GDP 4.20
percent
3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.1
Terms of Trade 99.00
Index Points
99.49 98.76 98.93 98.69 97.67
Capital Flows -45878.00
HKD Million
-65192 -44538 -51219 -61679 -53996
Tourist Arrivals 5461222.00
5093200 5197700 5145500 5140400 5146200
Gold Reserves 2.10
Tonnes
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Foreign Direct Investment 13356.84
HKD Billion
13848 13934 14102 14269 16376
External Debt 13057340.00
HKD Million
13162104 13339197 13372280 13415954 13318685
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.40
percent
33 33 32 32 31
Government Budget 2.20
percent of GDP
2.32 2 2.04 2.09 1.5
Government Budget Value -38136.00
HKD Million
-32272 67897 38903 -33278 55134
Government Spending 63719.00
HKD Million
65388 66228 71145 67032 70329
Government Revenues 70376.00
HKD Million
68565 175077 141201 71045 158468
Fiscal Expenditure 108512.00
HKD Million
100837 103855 102298 104324 103333
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 6.00
Index Points
9 6.81 3.86 6.24 6.57
Manufacturing PMI 48.50
48.7 49.4 50.2 51.4 51.8
Industrial Production 1.60
percent
1.8 2.5 2.7 2.4 3.4
Changes in Inventories 2949.00
HKD Million
206 2718 1847 1027 1310
Bankruptcies 12046.00
Companies
11941 11494 11362 11304 11263
Car Registrations 2633.00
2884 2829 2794 2769 2697
Internet Speed 21908.83
KBps
23243 23068 23153 23352 23431
IP Addresses 3132077.00
IP
3396752 3435135 3472362 3508706 3848651
Competitiveness Index 5.53
Points
5.49 5.49 5.52 5.53 5.52
Competitiveness Rank 6.00
9 9 7 6 6
Ease of Doing Business 5.00
5 5 5 5 5
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
76 76 76 76 77
Corruption Rank 13.00
12 12 11 11 14
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 107.00
Index Points
106 106 106 106 106
Retail Sales YoY 5.90
percent
5.4 3.9 4.3 6.4 4.4
Consumer Spending 462412.00
HKD Million
432729 480372 464933 486457 510121
Personal Savings 0.01
percent
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Bank Lending Rate 5.00
percent
5.25 5.5 5.5 5.75 6
Retail Sales Mom 3.90
percent
0.42 0.68 0.92 0.79 0.72
Households Debt To Gdp 70.60
percent of GDP
72.15 72.67 73 73.32 74.64
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 185.25
Index points
189 192 194 195 195
Home Ownership Rate 49.20
percent
49.03 48.6 48.51 48.42 47.49
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50
percent
16.5 16.5 17 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 28.52
celsius
28.03 21.08 16.66 24.32 23.21