Hong Kong | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.4 0.6 1 1 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 3.00 3.4 3.4 3.4 3 3.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 2.8 3.3 3.1 1.9 3.8 percent [+]
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 3.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade -43959.00 -41420 -39678 -38426 -37310 -29275 HKD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 37 33 33 37.12 31 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 7.81 7.73 7.65 7.58 7.5 6.64 [+]
Stock Market 28848.11 28200 27900 27600 27300 24200 points [+]
Government Bond 10Y 1.85 1.74 1.75 1.77 1.79 1.98 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.4 0.6 1 1 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.60 2.3 1.9 2.2 5.4 3.2 percent [+]
GDP 320.91 310 333 335 338 354 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 645058.00 645498 617293 610572 632871 630512 HKD Million [+]
Gross National Product 648773.00 663110 642040 645026 656461 651998 HKD Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 134384.00 144296 133485 140365 134058 137610 HKD Million [+]
GDP per capita 36725.60 37100 38055 38055 37228 40120 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 54279.20 53250 54753 54799 54844 55560 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 436.00 359 363 410 388 392 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Construction 28504.00 27774 28383 28038 27566 27359 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 6688.00 6943 6436 6626 7057 6957 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Public Administration 109459.00 102050 102022 107518 103610 103624 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Services 537653.00 563409 549594 539818 549485 552273 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Transport 35569.00 37061 38050 36400 37443 36960 HKD Million [+]
GDP From Utilities 9035.00 7815 7669 9076 9851 7826 HKD Million [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.00 3.4 3.4 3.4 3 3.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 3837.10 3830 3831 3830 3830 3825 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 123.60 128 128 128 128 127 Thousand [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.20 61.19 61.28 61.28 61.31 61.52 percent [+]
Labour Costs 141.70 141 149 141 137 140 Index Points [+]
Productivity 160.10 163 163 164 164 167 Index Points [+]
Job Vacancies 69592.00 68568 68859 67015 67341 62370 [+]
Wages 15702.00 15704 15739 15719 15713 15437 HKD/Month [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 211.50 212 213 213 213 211 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 34.50 34.5 34.5 34.5 35.32 40 HKD/Hour [+]
Population 7.37 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.44 7.7 Million [+]
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.20 6.6 6.22 6.23 6.12 5.63 percent [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 64 64 64 64 63 [+]
Retirement Age Women 65.00 64 64 64 64 63 [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50 2.8 3.3 3.1 1.9 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 104.90 105 105 105 104 104 Index Points [+]
GDP Deflator 105.40 104 105 105 105 104 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices 110.60 112 111 111 111 109 Index Points [+]
Export Prices 100.40 100 100 100 100 99.6 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 100.80 102 102 102 102 101 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30 0.24 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.36 percent [+]
Food Inflation 2.90 2.43 2.49 2.54 2.58 2.82 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 103.30 104 104 104 104 105 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 3.70 2.26 1.66 1.25 1 1.01 percent [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 3.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.27 1.06 1.42 1.62 1.82 3.16 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 427913.20 427783 427594 427454 427314 426061 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M1 2997256.90 2782006 2822602 2825501 2824112 2810199 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 13951534.80 14062018 14264508 14335426 14358449 14322343 HKD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 14003063.50 14116063 14321629 14394084 14417754 14380388 HKD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 422100.00 423485 424893 425116 424918 421376 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 21954479.00 22153347 22183118 22186512 22178915 22044618 HKD Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 9048793.00 9093326 9126650 9138156 9139067 9067477 HKD Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00 0.38 0.49 0.61 0.72 1.52 percent [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade -43959.00 -41420 -39678 -38426 -37310 -29275 HKD Million [+]
Exports 334735.00 339571 337611 335683 333777 317426 HKD Million [+]
Imports 378694.00 383689 380511 378999 377625 365664 HKD Million [+]
Current Account 16409.00 30300 23482 21126 30395 26300 HKD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP 4.50 4.1 3.9 3.9 5.75 3.1 percent [+]
Terms of Trade 99.60 99.37 99.67 99.95 100 102 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows -45533.00 -36723 -15387 -43051 -52088 -31334 HKD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 5278677.00 4961100 5029500 5012000 4987800 4829800 [+]
Gold Reserves 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 2.08 Tonnes [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 13356.84 13590 13577 13564 13551 12979 HKD Billion [+]
External Debt 11670549.00 12329727 12563305 12721195 12831519 12684866 HKD Million [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 37 33 33 37.12 31 percent [+]
Government Budget 4.80 3.42 3.13 2.84 2.55 1.43 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -31953.00 85250 18430 -33513 -18308 50697 HKD Million [+]
Government Spending 61909.00 59739 63710 59966 61926 60380 HKD Million [+]
Government Revenues 58544.00 183839 117296 59542 82335 158522 HKD Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 90497.00 89860 90744 89990 90289 89311 HKD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 5.00 6.83 5.82 7.1 8 8 [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.70 50.2 50.31 50.11 49.98 51.8 [+]
Industrial Production 0.30 1.1 -1.14 -1.66 -2.06 3.4 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -636.00 2087 3444 2677 2161 2577 HKD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 13263.00 8891 8294 7743 7255 4979 Companies [+]
Car Registrations 3833.00 2910 2822 2761 2711 2489 Cars [+]
Internet Speed 21908.83 22166 21668 21879 21659 19394 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 3132077.00 3242519 3269650 3291776 3308008 3283408 IP [+]
Competitiveness Index 5.53 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.46 5.47 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 6.00 9 9 9 9 7 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 5.00 5 4 3 3 2 [+]
Corruption Index 77.00 78 78 78 77 78 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 15.00 14 14 14 14 13 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.00 104 104 103 102 101 [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.60 4.8 4.61 4.73 4.84 4.4 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 419705.00 423380 407041 423284 408806 418111 HKD Million [+]
Personal Savings 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 percent [+]
Bank Lending Rate 5.00 5.18 5.39 5.58 5.76 6.91 percent [+]
Households Debt To Gdp 68.50 67.51 67.41 67.29 67.17 65.93 percent of GDP [+]
Retail Sales Mom 1.70 1.73 0.85 0.66 0.64 0.66 percent [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 157.92 158 158 157 156 146 Index points [+]
Home Ownership Rate 50.40 50.17 50.09 50 49.92 49.14 percent [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50 17 17 17 17 17 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00 15 15 15 15 15 percent [+]