This page has economic forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.80 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 percent
Inflation Rate 2.70 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.75 2.75 3 3.25 3.75 percent
Balance of Trade -47715.00 -51946 -53164 -52089 -51916 -52019 HKD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 33 32 32 32 31 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 7.83
7.84 7.84 7.84 7.84 7.84
Stock Market 26183.53
points
27386 26988 26596 26210 24721
Government Bond 10Y 2.33
percent
2.45 2.5 2.55 2.61 2.83
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10
percent
0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.90
percent
3.5 3 2.3 2.5 3.2
GDP 341.45
USD Billion
354 365 365 365 404
GDP Constant Prices 676112.00
HKD Million
716030 670806 649281 693015 760372
Gross National Product 689136.00
HKD Million
733435 692329 704986 706364 778855
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 144597.00
HKD Million
158737 136496 144248 148212 168567
GDP per capita 37927.13
USD
38055 39066 39066 39066 40120
GDP per capita PPP 56054.92
USD
56502 57406 57406 57406 57760
GDP From Agriculture 502.00
HKD Million
469 445 514 515 498
GDP From Construction 30703.00
HKD Million
34420 34379 31409 31471 36552
GDP From Manufacturing 6859.00
HKD Million
7110 6534 7017 7030 7551
GDP From Public Administration 118279.00
HKD Million
117647 113782 120999 121236 124933
GDP From Services 565334.00
HKD Million
646477 592136 578337 579467 686512
GDP From Transport 35756.00
HKD Million
40516 40012 36578 36650 43025
GDP From Utilities 9345.00
HKD Million
7966 8214 9560 9579 8460
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80
percent
2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9
Employed Persons 3872.60
Thousand
3874 3878 3880 3881 3887
Unemployed Persons 116.00
Thousand
114 114 114 114 114
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.10
percent
61.06 61.11 61.1 61.1 61.1
Productivity 166.00
Index Points
170 171 172 173 182
Job Vacancies 79203.00
80506 81064 81428 81616 81774
Wages 16479.00
HKD/Month
16400 16350 16910 17010 17300
Wages in Manufacturing 219.60
Index Points
218 223 225 226 220
Minimum Wages 34.50
HKD/Hour
34.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5
Population 7.41
Million
7.5 7.46 7.47 7.48 7.7
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.90
percent
5.28 5.46 5.49 5.45 5.47
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.70
percent
2.4 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 107.40
Index Points
108 109 110 110 114
GDP Deflator 107.40
Index Points
108 109 110 111 116
Producer Prices 114.80
Index Points
115 117 120 119 123
Export Prices 105.00
Index Points
106 106 106 106 106
Import Prices 105.50
Index Points
106 107 107 108 109
Producer Prices Change 3.80
percent
4 4.2 4.5 4 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.27 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26
Food Inflation 3.60
percent
3.65 3.7 3.73 3.75 3.8
CPI Transportation 105.70
Index Points
107 108 109 108 112
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent
2.75 2.75 3 3.25 3.75
Interbank Rate 1.97
percent
2.33 2.33 2.58 2.83 3.33
Money Supply M0 461720.16
HKD Million
470798 478408 486025 493633 560814
Money Supply M1 2445424.10
HKD Million
2456581 2457516 2457630 2457624 2457611
Money Supply M2 14116664.30
HKD Million
14305953 14499191 14692297 14884762 16582837
Money Supply M3 14175404.60
HKD Million
14365919 14560479 14755005 14948905 16659262
Foreign Exchange Reserves 423100.00
USD Million
441800 440700 447000 450000 470000
Banks Balance Sheet 23634827.91
HKD Million
23565503 23540374 23530278 23526743 23524834
Loans to Private Sector 9697018.95
HKD Million
9703003 9700561 9697102 9693933 9679433
Deposit Interest Rate 0.40
percent
0.65 0.65 0.9 1.15 1.65
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -47715.00
HKD Million
-51946 -53164 -52089 -51916 -52019
Exports 374961.00
HKD Million
353093 349689 351150 351405 351295
Imports 422676.00
HKD Million
404975 402853 403239 403321 403314
Current Account 15660.00
HKD Million
31300 19041 19260 35118 26300
Current Account to GDP 4.20
percent
3.9 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.1
Terms of Trade 99.50
Index Points
98.85 99.19 98.9 98.61 97.13
Capital Flows -45878.00
HKD Million
-43190 -44437 -49548 -51126 -47371
Tourist Arrivals 4718536.00
5222000 5187500 5147800 5153300 5155400
Gold Reserves 2.10
Tonnes
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Foreign Direct Investment 13356.84
HKD Billion
13934 14102 14269 14436 16376
External Debt 13057340.00
HKD Million
13539645 13637263 13711587 13754302 13692311
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.40
percent
33 32 32 32 31
Government Budget 2.20
percent of GDP
2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5
Government Budget Value -53728.00
HKD Million
63582 38404 -35651 -45958 48648
Government Spending 66489.00
HKD Million
66228 71145 65185 68151 70329
Government Revenues 49642.00
HKD Million
172331 142202 69793 57759 153277
Fiscal Expenditure 103370.00
HKD Million
104759 103798 105444 103717 104629
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 2.00
Index Points
5 -3.36 -0.25 -0.84 1.14
Manufacturing PMI 48.60
49.4 50.2 51.4 48.2 51.8
Industrial Production 1.60
percent
2.5 2.7 2.4 2.1 3.4
Changes in Inventories 11918.00
HKD Million
10511 5473 4646 7629 7230
Bankruptcies 14173.00
Companies
13276 13129 13231 13286 13364
Car Registrations 2586.00
2760 2739 2729 2721 2699
Internet Speed 21908.83
KBps
23068 23153 23352 23298 23431
IP Addresses 3132077.00
IP
3435135 3472362 3508706 3544324 3848651
Competitiveness Index 82.25
Points
82.75 82.75 82.75 82.75 85.25
Competitiveness Rank 7.00
7 7 7 7 7
Ease of Doing Business 4.00
4 3 3 2 2
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
77 77 77 77 77
Corruption Rank 13.00
13 13 13 13 13
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 105.00
Index Points
106 105 105 105 105
Retail Sales YoY 1.40
percent
3.9 4.3 6.4 8.6 4.4
Consumer Spending 448217.00
HKD Million
480372 464933 473047 459422 510121
Personal Savings 0.12
percent
0.01 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.01
Bank Lending Rate 5.13
percent
5.26 5.26 5.51 5.76 6.26
Retail Sales Mom -1.40
percent
0.87 1.14 0.65 0.73 0.72
Households Debt To GDP 71.00
percent of GDP
72.35 72.63 72.92 73.11 74.07
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 185.31
Index points
187 188 188 188 188
Home Ownership Rate 49.20
percent
48.6 48.51 48.42 48.34 47.49
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50
percent
16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 28.52
celsius
21.08 16.66 24.32 22.7 23.21



Hong Kong - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook