German Factory Orders Slump on Large-Order Reversal

Germany's factory orders rose 4.4% month-on-month in September 2026, recovering from a downwardly revised 10.1% slump in August but missing market forecasts for a 4.8% gain. It marked the fastest growth since March, driven largely by a 10.5% surge in automotive orders following weakness in the previous two months, partly due to production changeovers and factory shutdowns. Mechanical engineering orders also strengthened by 8.3%. In contrast, orders for aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles fell 10.4% after strong demand earlier this year. By category, orders increased across capital goods (5.3%), intermediate goods (0.5%) and consumer goods (14.4%). Domestic orders surged 6.6%, while foreign demand rose 2.8%, supported by gains in both the euro area (4.5%) and non-euro area markets (1.6%). Excluding large-scale contracts, orders climbed 5.1%. On a less volatile three-month basis, factory orders edged up 0.2% in Q3 from the previous quarter, or 0.1% excluding large orders.

Germany’s factory orders plunged 10.6% month-on-month in August 2026, reversing an upwardly revised 3.2% increase in the prior month and far exceeding market expectations for a 1.0% decline. It was the first monthly drop since April, largely reflecting a 61.5% tumble in orders for aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles after these surged more than twofold in July on an exceptionally high volume of large contracts. Demand weakened across capital goods (-15.3%), intermediate goods (-2.6%) and consumer goods (-7.3%). Domestic orders fell 17.3%, while foreign demand declined 5.4%, with orders from both the euro area (-5.4%) and non-euro area countries (-5.5%) decreasing. Excluding large-scale contracts, orders edged down just 0.1%. On a less volatile three-month basis, factory orders fell 1.3% in June-August from the previous three months, or 2.6% excluding large orders, pointing to continued weakness in underlying industrial demand.

Germany's factory orders rose 2.5% mom in July 2026, easing from an upwardly revised 3.7% gain in the previous month but outperforming market expectations of 0.3%. It was the third straight month of increase, mainly driven by large orders for shipbuilding, rail vehicle construction, and aircraft manufacturing (126.4%). Meanwhile, bookings for the automotive industry declined 12.5%. Capital goods (2.4%) and intermediate goods (4.3%) rose, while consumer goods slipped (-4.8%). Domestic demand surged (9.1%), while foreign orders dropped 2.1%, dragged by a 10.1% fall in orders from non-euro area countries that offset a 12.1% surge from the euro area. Excluding large-scale contracts, orders were 1.4% lower. On a less volatile three-month basis, demand increased 2.9% in May-July from the prior three months, though they dipped 2.2% when large orders were excluded.