German Factory Orders Rise Less than Estimated

Germany’s factory orders rose 0.9% mom in February 2026, rebounding from an 11.1% slump in the prior month but missing market expectations of a 2% increase. The recovery was driven mainly by the automotive sector, where orders grew (3.8%). Strong gains were also seen in textiles (45.2%) and metal production and processing (3.7%). In contrast, orders in other vehicle manufacturing, including aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles, plunged 25.9%. By category, demand increased across capital goods (0.2%), intermediate goods (1.4%), and consumer goods (4.5%). Foreign orders rose (4.7%), led by the euro area (6.7%) and non-euro area markets (3.5%). However, domestic orders fell (4.4%). Excluding large-scale contracts, total orders rose (3.5%). On a less volatile basis, new orders from December 2025 to February 2026 were 2.0% higher than in the previous three-month period. However, excluding large orders, they fell 0.8%.

Germany’s factory orders slumped 11.1% mom in January 2026, far worse than market expectations for a 4.3% drop, and after a downwardly revised 6.5% rise in the previous month. It was the first decline since August, largely driven by a 39.4% plunge in fabricated metal products after large orders in the prior month created a high base. Demand also weakened for machinery and equipment (-13.5%) and basic metals (-15.1%). In contrast, orders grew for the automotive industry (10.4%) and aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles (9.2%). By category, capital goods tumbled 14.1% and intermediate goods fell 7.9%, while consumer goods edged up 0.1%. Domestic demand dropped 16.2%, while foreign orders shrank 7.1%, including a 7.3% fall from the euro area and a 7.1% drop from non-euro area markets. Excluding large contracts, orders slipped 0.4%. Still, factory orders between November 2025 and January 2026 grew 7.4% from the prior three months, or 1.5% higher without large orders.

Germany’s factory orders surged 7.8% month-on-month in December 2025, defying market expectations for a 2.2% drop and accelerating from November’s marginally revised 5.7% gain. It marked the fourth straight monthly increase and the strongest since December 2023, boosted by large orders in metal products (30.2%) and mechanical engineering (11.5%). Notable growth was also recorded in electrical equipment orders (9.8%) and electronic products (5.7%). In contrast, demand fell for aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicles (- 18.7%), and the automotive industry (-6.3%). By category, capital goods rose 10.5% and intermediate goods 5.7%, while consumer goods declined 5.3%. Domestic demand climbed 10.7%, and foreign orders advanced 5.6%, led by a 9.7% rise from non-euro area markets, offsetting a 0.6% euro area drop. Excluding large contracts, orders edged up 0.9%. On a quarterly basis, factory orders grew 9.5% in Q4, or 2.5% without large contracts.