German Construction Slips Back into Contraction

The HCOB Germany Construction PMI fell to 44.7 in January 2026 from 50.3 in December, signaling a return to contraction after the first expansion in almost four years. The decline was driven by accelerated downturns in housing and commercial construction, while civil engineering activity continued to expand, rising in six of the past eight months, though slightly slower than December’s near 15-year high. New orders fell further, reflecting weak demand from housing, commercial projects, and local government. On a positive note, employment rose for the third consecutive month at the fastest pace since March 2022, and purchasing activity declined at the slowest rate in over three-and-a-half years. Input cost inflation reached a four-month high, alongside higher subcontractor charges. Despite ongoing challenges, business expectations turned positive for the first time since May 2025, marking the highest confidence since February 2020.

The HCOB Germany Construction PMI rose to 50.3 in December 2025 from 45.2 in the previous month, marking the first expansion in the sector since March 2022. The growth was primarily driven by civil engineering activity, which surged at its fastest pace since 2011. The decline in housing activity also eased markedly, with work on residential projects falling at the slowest rate since March 2022. By contrast, commercial construction remained the weakest segment, posting another sharp contraction similar to those recorded over the previous three months. On the price front, input cost inflation accelerated to a three-month high, while output charges increased at the fastest rate in more than two years. Looking ahead, construction companies remained pessimistic about activity over the next twelve months, pointing to concerns over sluggish economic growth and an ongoing shortage of new orders.

The HCOB Germany Construction PMI rose to 45.2 in November 2025, rebounding from seven-month low of 42.8 in October, signaling a modest recovery while overall activity remains in contraction. The rebound was primarily driven by civil engineering, which expanded for the fourth time in six months, offsetting continued weakness in housing and commercial construction, with residential activity particularly soft. New orders fell further, reflecting weak demand, though employment increased for the first time in over three and a half years, ending a prolonged sequence of job cuts since April 2022. Purchasing activity continued to decline, while supplier delivery times lengthened for the second month. Input price inflation eased slightly, and subcontractor charges rose at a slower pace than last month, though still at a two-year high. Despite the partial recovery, German constructors remain cautious about the year ahead amid soft demand, high costs, and elevated long-term interest rates.