German Private Sector Activity Returns to Growth

Germany’s flash composite PMI eased to 51 in August 2026 from 51.3 in July, below expectations of 51.3 and marking a two-month low. Growth was driven by a strong recovery in manufacturing, where output expanded at its fastest pace in more than four and a half years, with the index reaching 56.7. New orders and export sales also increased sharply, supported by stockbuilding, higher defence spending and data-centre investment. In contrast, the services sector remained weak, recording its fifth consecutive monthly decline, although the contraction was relatively modest. The labour market showed tentative signs of stabilisation, with employment broadly unchanged after more than two years of declines, as slower factory job losses offset a modest increase in service-sector hiring. Business confidence also strengthened, reaching its highest level since before the Middle East conflict began. Meanwhile, input-cost pressures eased slightly and selling-price inflation slowed to a five-month low.

The S&P Global Germany Composite PMI was revised higher to 51.3 in July 2026 from a preliminary of 51.2, pointing to the first growth in private sector activity in four months. Both manufacturing (52.2 vs 50.3) and services (49.8 vs 48.6) PMI increased. The improvement was mostly due to a marked rise in manufacturing production. New business also showed a renewed expansion, reflecting growth in both services and manufacturing and supported by higher export sales. Employment fell at the slowest rate in 2026 so far, amid a broad-based easing of job losses, whilst confidence improved to a five-month high. Despite an uptick in cost inflation, charges for goods and service rose at a slightly slower rate.

The S&P Global Flash Germany Composite PMI rose to 51.2 in July 2026 from 49.5 in June, beating forecasts of 49.8. It is the highest reading in four months, with the private sector activity moving back to growth after three straight months of contraction, driven by a marked upturn in manufacturing production and a nearly stagnation in services. There was also a renewed increase in new export orders and firms were slightly more optimistic about the year-ahead outlook for activity, which was reflected in a slowdown in the pace of job losses. As for prices, there was a slightly faster rise in input costs, owing to increased pressures facing services firms. Average prices charged for goods and services meanwhile rose at the slowest rate for four months. Despite the July improvement, the path to a sustainable recovery still seems very much uncertain. given the escalating hostilities in the Middle East, which have put renewed upward pressure on global energy prices