German Private Sector Growth Slows in March

Germany’s S&P Global Composite PMI fell to 51.9 in March 2026, down from 53.2 in February, marking the weakest private-sector expansion this year. The ongoing Middle East conflict has dampened growth in the service sector, while manufacturing output surged to a 49-month high, driven by supply chain disruptions that paradoxically boosted factory activity. New business remained largely stable, as declining service demand was offset by a rise in factory orders. However, employment declined across sectors, and business confidence for the year ahead weakened. Cost inflation increased, particularly in manufacturing, though average output prices rose at only a slightly faster rate.

The S&P Global Flash Germany PMI Composite PMI fell to 51.9 in March 2026 from 53.2 in February, compared to forecasts of 52. The reading pointed to a slowdown in growth in Germany’s private sector to its lowest level in three months. The result owed entirely to a loss of momentum in the service sector, where business activity growth slowed (51.2 vs 53.5). By contrast, the rate of expansion in manufacturing production quickened to an over 4-year high (53.7 vs 52.5), buoyed by stronger inflows of new orders. There were reports of the Middle East war leading to increased demand, as some customers looked to avoid supply disruption and build up stocks. At the same time, there was a spike in cost pressures linked to the war, with input price inflation rising to the highest for over three years, mainly due to energy, fuel, transportation, wages and a range of raw materials. Also, there was a further broad-based drop in employment and business expectations fell noticeably.

The HCOB Germany Composite PMI was revised slightly higher to 53.2 in February 2026 from a preliminary of 53.1, and above 52.1 in January. It is the highest reading in four months, amid faster increases in activity in both the manufacturing and service sectors. There was stronger demand for goods and services, including from abroad, as export sales rose simultaneously in both monitored sectors for the first time since February 2022. Conversely, February saw another broad-based decrease in employment, although the overall rate of decline eased due to a slowdown in factory job cuts. Backlogs meanwhile rose, albeit marginally, for the first time in four months. Turning to prices, a faster rate of increase in input costs contrasted with a slowdown in output price inflation, albeit with the latter remaining above its long-run average. Business expectations were little-changed, holding close to January's 20-month high.