German Trade Surplus Exceeds Expectations

2026-03-10 07:26 By Czyrill Jean Coloma 1 min. read

Germany's trade surplus widened to €21.2 billion in January 2026 from €15.9 billion in the same month a year earlier, easily surpassing market expectations of €15.2 billion and marking the largest surplus since August 2024.

Exports fell 2.3% month-on-month to €130.5 billion, mainly due to lower shipments to EU member states (-4.8%), particularly within the Eurozone (-5.7%) and outside the Eurozone (-2.7%).

In contrast, shipments to third countries rose 1%, supported by an 11.7% surge in exports to the United States, Germany’s largest export market.

Meanwhile, imports dropped more sharply, falling 5.9% month-on-month to a seventeen-month low of €109.2 billion.

Arrivals declined from EU member states (-6.5%), including the Eurozone (-5.9%) and non-Eurozone countries (-7.8%).

Arrivals from third countries also dropped 5.3%, with imports from China (-8.3%) and the United States (-8.2%) recording notable declines.



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German Trade Surplus Exceeds Expectations
Germany's trade surplus widened to €21.2 billion in January 2026 from €15.9 billion in the same month a year earlier, easily surpassing market expectations of €15.2 billion and marking the largest surplus since August 2024. Exports fell 2.3% month-on-month to €130.5 billion, mainly due to lower shipments to EU member states (-4.8%), particularly within the Eurozone (-5.7%) and outside the Eurozone (-2.7%). In contrast, shipments to third countries rose 1%, supported by an 11.7% surge in exports to the United States, Germany’s largest export market. Meanwhile, imports dropped more sharply, falling 5.9% month-on-month to a seventeen-month low of €109.2 billion. Arrivals declined from EU member states (-6.5%), including the Eurozone (-5.9%) and non-Eurozone countries (-7.8%). Arrivals from third countries also dropped 5.3%, with imports from China (-8.3%) and the United States (-8.2%) recording notable declines.
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Germany’s trade surplus widened to €17.1 billion in December 2025, up from an upwardly revised €13.6 billion in November and surpassing market expectations of €14.1 billion. Exports rose 4.0% to a 20-month high of €133.3 billion, well above forecasts of a 1.0% increase, rebounding from a 2.5% fall in the previous month. Export growth was supported by stronger shipments to the EU and non-EU countries, with exports to the US, Germany’s largest market, which rose 8.9%. Outbound shipments also increased to China (10.7%), the UK (14.6%), and Russia (1.8%). Imports rose 1.4% to a 29-month high of €116.2 billion, exceeding expectations of a 0.2% increase, supported by higher purchases from both EU and non-EU countries, including the US (3.0%), China (4.1%), and Russia (6%). For the full year of 2025, Germany registered a trade surplus of €202.7 billion, with exports up just 1.0% while imports increased 4.4%.
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German Trade Surplus Smallest in Nearly 3 Years
Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €13.1 billion in November 2025, down from an upwardly revised €17.2 billion in October and below market expectations of €16.5 billion. This was the smallest surplus since December 2022, as exports fell 2.5% to a 13-month low of €128.1 billion, missing forecasts for flat growth. Weak demand from the EU (-4.2%) and other trading partners (-0.2%) weighed on shipments, with exports to the US, Germany’s largest market, declining 4.2% amid the ongoing impact of tariffs. Exports to the UK also fell sharply, down by 8.1%. Imports rose 0.8% to €115.1 billion, above the expected 0.2%, supported by higher purchases from China (8.0%), the US (7.9%), and the UK (10.9%). For the first eleven months of 2025, Germany recorded a trade surplus of €182.3 billion, with exports up just 0.9% while imports rose 4.6%.
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