Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations at 4-Month High

Median expectations for price growth over the next 12 months in the Euro Area edged up to 3.1% in September 2026, the most in four months, compared to 3% in August. Consumers also expect the price of their home to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, higher than 3.4% in August. Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged at 4.9%. Meanwhile, median expectations for inflation three years ahead and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5% respectively. Elsewhere, expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1% and expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased to -1.5% from -1.2% in August. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11%.

Median expectations for price growth over the next 12 months in the Euro Area increased to 3% in August 2026 from 2.9%. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also increased, to 2.9% from 2.7%, while the five-year outlook went up to 2.5% from 2.4%. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months decreased, but remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Lower-income households continued to perceive and anticipate higher inflation than higher-income groups, while younger consumers maintained more moderate expectations than older respondents. Also, expectations for nominal income growth were unchanged at 1%. Those for economic growth remained at -1.2% while expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 11% from 11.2%. In addition, consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months and mortgage interest rates to increase 4.9%, the same as in July.

Median expectations for price growth over the next 12 months in the Euro Area eased to 2.9% in July 2026 from 3% in June. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also declined, to 2.7% from 2.8%, while the five-year outlook remained unchanged at 2.4%. However, uncertainty surrounding near-term inflation expectations remained elevated compared with levels seen before the Middle East conflict. Lower-income households continued to perceive and anticipate higher inflation than higher-income groups, while younger consumers maintained more moderate expectations than older respondents. Expected nominal income growth over the next year edged down to 1%, while spending-growth expectations held steady at 3.6%. Consumers also became slightly less pessimistic about economic activity, with expected growth improving to -1.2% from -1.4%. Meanwhile, home-price growth expectations were stronger among lower-income households, averaging 4%, compared with 3.1% among the highest-income group.