Euro Area Inflation Expectations Fall for 3rd Month

2026-08-21 08:38 By Agna Gabriel 1 min. read

Median expectations for price growth over the next 12 months in the Euro Area eased to 2.9% in July 2026 from 3% in June.

Expectations for inflation three years ahead also declined, to 2.7% from 2.8%, while the five-year outlook remained unchanged at 2.4%.

However, uncertainty surrounding near-term inflation expectations remained elevated compared with levels seen before the Middle East conflict.

Lower-income households continued to perceive and anticipate higher inflation than higher-income groups, while younger consumers maintained more moderate expectations than older respondents.

Expected nominal income growth over the next year edged down to 1%, while spending-growth expectations held steady at 3.6%.

Consumers also became slightly less pessimistic about economic activity, with expected growth improving to -1.2% from -1.4%.

Meanwhile, home-price growth expectations were stronger among lower-income households, averaging 4%, compared with 3.1% among the highest-income group.



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Euro Area Inflation Expectations Fall for 3rd Month
Median expectations for price growth over the next 12 months in the Euro Area eased to 2.9% in July 2026 from 3% in June. Expectations for inflation three years ahead also declined, to 2.7% from 2.8%, while the five-year outlook remained unchanged at 2.4%. However, uncertainty surrounding near-term inflation expectations remained elevated compared with levels seen before the Middle East conflict. Lower-income households continued to perceive and anticipate higher inflation than higher-income groups, while younger consumers maintained more moderate expectations than older respondents. Expected nominal income growth over the next year edged down to 1%, while spending-growth expectations held steady at 3.6%. Consumers also became slightly less pessimistic about economic activity, with expected growth improving to -1.2% from -1.4%. Meanwhile, home-price growth expectations were stronger among lower-income households, averaging 4%, compared with 3.1% among the highest-income group.
2026-08-21
Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations Fall for 2nd Month
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell for a second consecutive month to 3% in June 2026, the lowest since February, from 3.5% in May. Consumers expect the price of their home to increase by 3.4% over the next 12 months, compared with 3.6% in May. Expectations for mortgage interest rates went up to 5% from 4.9%. Meanwhile, expectations for inflation three years ahead also declined to 2.8% from 2.9% while expectations for inflation five years ahead remained unchanged at 2.4%. Uncertainty about inflation over the next 12 months decreased for the second consecutive month, but remained higher than the level prevailing before the start of the war in the Middle East. Elsewhere, expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months decreased to 3.6% from 3.8% in May. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months increased to -1.4% from -1.7% and expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 11.2% from 11.3% in May.
2026-07-24
Euro Area Consumer Inflation Expectations Ease
Eurozone median inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined to 3.5% in May 2026, the lowest level in three months, down from 4.0% in each of the previous two months, which marked the highest reading since 2023. Consumers also expect house prices to rise by 3.6% over the next year, slightly below 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%. Meanwhile, longer-term inflation expectations were steady, at 2.9% for three years ahead and 2.4% for five years ahead. Uncertainty around 12-month inflation expectations eased but remained elevated compared with levels seen before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. Elsewhere, consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months rose to 1.0% from 0.8% in April. Economic growth expectations for the year ahead improved to -1.7% from -2.2% and expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead ticked up slightly to 11.3% from 11.2% in April.
2026-06-26