China NBS General PMI at Over 3-Year Low

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.5 in March 2026 from 49.5 in the previous month, marking the highest reading since December and returning to expansion territory. The improvement was driven by a rebound in manufacturing output, as firms resumed operations after the Spring Festival and supply chains and labor availability gradually normalized. The services sector also recovered after after two months of contraction, supported by policy measures and steady business sentiment. Still, escalating Middle East tensions pose risks: higher energy prices and potential shipping disruptions could lift input costs and weigh on external demand, particularly for exporters. NBS statistician Huo Lihui noted that overall production and operations among Chinese enterprises were improving, signaling a broader recovery across sectors despite lingering external uncertainties.

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index fell to 49.5 in February 2026 from 49.8 in the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down. The latest figure also marked the lowest reading since December 2022, with manufacturing activity slipping to a four-month low as factories paused production and shipments due to the week-long holiday. NBS statistician Huo Lihui blamed the longer-than-usual holiday for the softening manufacturing activity, saying companies’ production and operations were affected to some extent. Meanwhile, the services sector increased slightly as the holiday boosted travel, entertainment activities, and duty-free shopping, marking the longest holiday on record as Chinese authorities sought to stimulate consumer spending.

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index dipped to 49.8 in January 2026 from December's six-month high of 50.7. Services activity contracted after expanding in December, weighed by post-holiday demand normalization and tighter cost conditions, while manufacturing output continued to grow. Huo Lihui, a statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics, said overall economic activity softened at the start of the year, noting that parts of the manufacturing sector entered the traditional off-season. Meanwhile, unusually low temperatures ahead of the Spring festive period also disrupted the services sector.