China NBS General PMI at Over 3-Year Low

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index increased to 50.5 in May 2026 from 50.1 in April, marking a third straight month of growth in overall business activity. The uptick reflected a modest rebound in services after April’s contraction, while manufacturing stayed largely flat. Still, the outlook was clouded by external headwinds. The Middle East conflict, which shut the Strait of Hormuz in late February, has driven energy prices sharply higher, lifting production and transport costs and squeezing margins. Trade uncertainty also lingered after a mid-May summit in Beijing between Chinese and U.S. leaders failed to extend last year’s truce. While both sides agreed to explore tariff cuts on about USD 30 billion of goods each, the absence of a broader deal weighed on confidence and export prospects. Huo Lihui of the National Bureau of Statistics said China's overall economic activity continued to expand in May despite rising costs and challenging global conditions.

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index slipped to 50.1 in April 2026 from March’s three-month high of 50.5, signaling near-stagnation in overall business activity. A contraction in the services sector outweighed continued resilience in manufacturing output, while escalating Middle East tensions added uncertainty by stoking concerns over higher oil prices, supply-chain disruptions, and weaker global demand. The latest result came as China prepares for a May summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, where Beijing is expected to seek clarity around U.S. trade penalties on Chinese goods. The two leaders met last year in Busan, South Korea, where they agreed to a trade truce that saw Washington cut the overall tariff rate on Chinese goods to about 47%, while Beijing pledged to suspend sweeping export controls on rare earths.

China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index rose to 50.5 in March 2026 from 49.5 in the previous month, marking the highest reading since December and returning to expansion territory. The improvement was driven by a rebound in manufacturing output, as firms resumed operations after the Spring Festival and supply chains and labor availability gradually normalized. The services sector also recovered after two months of contraction, supported by policy measures and steady business sentiment. Still, escalating Middle East tensions pose risks: higher energy prices and potential shipping disruptions could lift input costs and weigh on external demand, particularly for exporters. NBS statistician Huo Lihui noted that overall production and operations among Chinese enterprises were improving, signaling a broader recovery across sectors despite lingering external uncertainties.