China Manufacturing Growth Below Forecasts

The RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI declined to a four-month low of 50.9 in July 2026 from 51.7 in June, falling below forecasts of 51.5, as output and new orders grew more slowly. Output continued to rise, while new orders increased for the 14th consecutive month, the longest streak since 2018, supported by stronger foreign sales, which rose for the first time in three months. Meanwhile, employment increased for the second straight month, with job creation reaching its strongest level since August 2023. Delivery times lengthened for the fifth consecutive month, but the extent of the delays remained only marginal. On the price front, input price inflation eased for the third consecutive month to its weakest level since January. Meanwhile, output prices were unchanged after six consecutive months of increases. Finally, business sentiment improved, supported by expectations of stronger market demand, new product development, expanded production capacity, and increased efficiency.

The RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI inched down to a three-month low of 51.7 in June 2026 from 51.8 in May, but above forecasts of 51.6. It also remained above the long-run survey trend of 50.8 since 2004, and caps off the strongest quarter since late 2020. Output grew solidly, while new orders rose for the thirteenth straight month, matching the joint-longest expansion sequence since 2018. However, foreign sales fell for the second straight month. Meanwhile, employment climbed for the first time in three months, with job creation reaching its strongest level since August 2023. Delivery times lengthened only marginally, marking the weakest deterioration in the current four-month sequence. On prices, input price inflation eased from April's four-year high to its weakest level since January. Meanwhile, output price inflation edged up, extending its increase to a sixth consecutive month, the longest such sequence since 2021. Finally, sentiment weakened to a five-month low.

The RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in May 2026 from an over five-year high of 52.2 in April, but came in above forecasts of 51.4. Growth for new orders and output moderated but stayed robust, supported by domestic demand, new customers and product upgrades, while export orders dipped slightly. Production also rose strongly, among the highest since late 2024. Meanwhile, employment edged into marginal contraction, and supplier delivery times lengthened for a third month, albeit modestly, alongside higher input purchases and six consecutive months of rising input stocks. Inflationary pressures eased, with input and output price increases slowing for the first time in six and seven months respectively, though costs remained elevated due to raw materials, energy and supply disruptions. Business confidence stayed positive but softened, driven by expectations of stronger demand, new orders and capacity expansion.