China 2024 GDP Growth Meets Official Target

China’s economy expanded 4.5% yoy in Q4 2025, slowing from 4.8% in Q3 and marking the weakest rise in three years. The latest result came as December retail sales grew at their slowest rate in three years, weighed down by a prolonged property slump and deflationary pressures despite ongoing consumer subsidies. Meantime, the jobless rate stood at 5.1% for the third straight month while industrial output growth accelerated. Still, full-year growth reached 5%, in line with Beijing’s target and unchanged from 2024, helped by a record-high trade surplus as strong exports to non-U.S. markets helped offset tariff pressure and weaker fixed investment. China’s statistics agency noted the economy withstood multiple pressures and maintained a steady, progressive trend in 2025, following December’s pledge by leaders to sustain a proactive fiscal stance to spur activity. However, growth prospects in 2026 remain clouded by rising protectionism and unpredictable U.S. policies under President Trump.

China’s economy expanded 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, down from 5.2% in Q2, marking its slowest pace since Q3 2024. While in line with market expectations, the GDP growth has lost momentum after a strong start to the year, pressured by U.S. trade tensions, a prolonged property slump, and soft consumer demand. September data showed retail sales in China rose at their slowest pace in a year despite ongoing consumer subsidy programs, while the jobless rate edged down but remained near August’s six-month high. Industrial output, however, grew at its fastest pace in three months ahead of Golden Week. On the trade front, exports and imports beat forecasts as firms pushed into new markets and domestic demand was boosted by holiday spending. China’s statistics bureau cautioned that risks and external headwinds persist, with the recovery’s foundation still fragile. Still, it said that 5.2% growth in the first nine months lays a “solid foundation” for meeting a full-year target of around 5%.

China’s economy expanded 5.2% yoy in Q2 2025, easing from 5.4% in the prior two quarters and marking the weakest pace since Q3 2024. Still, the latest reading narrowly beat market consensus of 5.1%, supported in part by Beijing’s policy measures amid a fragile trade truce. In June, industrial output growth unexpectedly quickened to a 3-month high, while the jobless rate held at a six-month low. However, retail sales grew the least in four months, despite government subsidies on electronic items. On the trade front, exports accelerated as factories rushed out shipments, and imports rose for the first time this year. During H1 of 2025, the economy advanced 5.3%. Growth momentum in H2 is projected to weaken further amid mounting headwinds, including trade tensions ahead of the August 12 tariff deadline, deflation pressures, and a prolonged property downturn. Meanwhile, the statistics agency flagged continued external uncertainties and warned that domestic demand remains “insufficient.”