China Fixed Investment Falls 3.8%, Worse than Forecast

China’s fixed-asset investment fell by 3.8% in 2025, worse than market forecasts of a 3% drop. This marked the first annual decline since 1989, dragged mainly by a sharp fall in property investment (-17.2%). Infrastructure investment also dropped by 2.2%, while manufacturing investment saw a modest increase of 0.6%. By industry, investment in the primary industry rose by 2.3% and the secondary industry went up by 2.5%, whereas investment in the tertiary industry contracted by 7.4%. Excluding the property sector, fixed-asset investment was down by 0.5% in 2025. On a monthly basis, fixed-asset investment dropped by 1.1% in December, following a 0.4% fall in November.

China’s fixed-asset investment fell by 2.6% year-on-year in January-November 2025 period, more than market expectations of a 2.3% decrease and following a 1.7% drop in the first ten months. This was the sharpest decline since June 2020, due to continued decreases in property investment (-15.9% vs -14.7% in January-October) and infrastructure (-1.1% vs -0.1%), alongside softer growth in manufacturing (1.9% vs 2.7%). By industry, investment growth slowed in the primary industry (2.7% vs 2.9%) and secondary industry (3.9% vs 4.8%), while investment in the tertiary sector declined further (-6.3% vs -5.3%). Excluding the property sector, fixed-asset investment rose by 0.8%, slowing from a 1.7% increase in the first ten months. On a monthly basis, fixed-asset investment dropped by 1% in November, easing from a 1.5% fall in October.

China’s fixed-asset investment dropped by 1.7% year-on-year in January-October 2025 period, exceeding market forecasts of a 0.8% decline and slipping further from a 0.5% fall in the first nine months. The latest figure marked the second consecutive month of decline and the steepest since June 2020, driven by a faster decrease in property investment (-14.7% vs -13.9% in January-September), a decline in infrastructure (-0.1% vs 1.1%), and slower growth in manufacturing (2.7% vs 4%). By industry, investment growth moderated in the primary industry (2.9% vs 4.6%) and secondary industry (4.8% vs 6.3%), while investment in the tertiary industry dropped further (-5.3% vs -4.3%). Excluding the property sector, fixed-asset investment was up by 1.7% in January-October, easing from a 3% increase in the first nine months. On a monthly basis, fixed-asset investment fell by 1.62% in October, deepening from a 0.07% loss in September.