Offshore Yuan Strongest Since 2023

The offshore yuan edged lower to around 6.76 per dollar on Monday, retreating from a more than three-year high reached in the previous session, as investors weighed mixed PMI data amid concerns about the economic impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict. Official data showed China's Composite PMI rose to 50.5 in May from 50.1 in April, supported by a slight rebound in the non-manufacturing sector (50.1 vs 49.4), while the manufacturing PMI (50.0 vs 50.3) edged lower. A private survey also showed that the manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.8 from April's five-year high of 52.2. Firms continued to closely watch developments in the Middle East as they faced subdued demand and higher input costs stemming from regional tensions. The prospects for a US-Iran ceasefire agreement remained uncertain, despite both sides having recently exchanged messages seeking amendments to a draft deal that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The offshore yuan steadied around 6.76 per dollar on Friday, hovering near its strongest level since February 2023, bolstered by reports of an extended ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Both sides agreed to prolong the truce for another 60 days to allow further negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, although US President Donald Trump has yet to formally approve the arrangement. Meanwhile, China’s currency has drawn additional support from the global AI investment boom, which has fueled demand for Chinese technology exports and eased concerns in Beijing over yuan appreciation. For the month, the yuan remains on track for a second consecutive monthly gain despite continued weaker-than-expected daily midpoint fixings from the People's Bank of China, as investors navigated rapidly shifting developments surrounding the Iran conflict while also assessing progress following the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping earlier this month.

The offshore yuan traded around 6.78 per dollar on Thursday, hovering near its strongest level since February 2023, buoyed by encouraging domestic economic data. Industrial profits in China jumped 18.2% year-on-year in January–April 2026, supported by robust demand for Chinese electronics and elevated oil prices linked to Middle East tensions. The figures followed earlier signs of slowing economic momentum reflected in industrial output and retail sales data. However, gains in the yuan were limited by a stronger US dollar, as lingering uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement continued to bolster safe-haven demand. The US recently confirmed defensive airstrikes on an Iranian military site, while key sticking points in negotiations, including Tehran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program remain unresolved.