Offshore Yuan Weakens, Still Set for 4th Weekly Gain

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.89 per dollar, ending a three-day winning streak as the greenback gained strength amid mounting uncertainties over a possible easing of the Middle East conflict. The US dollar rose as investors pared back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, amid concerns that a surge in oil prices driven by the conflict could stoke rising inflation. During his speech, Trump said the war in Iran was “very close” to completion and likely to meet its objectives in the coming weeks, while warning that military operations could intensify. Meanwhile, the PBoC drained CNY 890 billion through short-term operations and absorbed another CNY 250 billion via longer-term tools, reversing months of liquidity support after the economy’s deepest slowdown since reopening from Covid lockdowns in 2022. With growth rebounding and oil prices elevated by the Iran war, the central bank appears focused on curbing inflation while gradually steering China out of record deflation.

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.87 per dollar on Wednesday, marking its third straight session of gains and reaching a near two-week high, as optimism over a potential resolution to the Middle East conflict dented demand for the greenback. President Trump said US forces would end operations in Iran within two to three weeks, while adding that any agreement was “irrelevant” to Washington’s timeline. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran had the “necessary will” to end the conflict, provided that safeguards are in place to prevent renewed hostilities. The yuan gained further support as BOC Hong Kong works with regulators to upgrade digital wallets, following China’s move to allow interest on the currency, a step that could boost offshore adoption. Meanwhile, a private survey showed that the manufacturing PMI fell to 50.8 in March 2026, from 52.1 in February. In contrast, official data indicated that the manufacturing PMI rebounded to a one-year high of 50.4.

The offshore yuan edged higher to around 6.91 per dollar on Tuesday, extending modest gains from the previous session, supported by the unexpectedly strong return of expansion in PMI data. Official figures showed composite PMI rising to a three-month high of 50.5 in March 2026, signaling renewed growth across both sub-sectors. The manufacturing PMI rose to a one-year high of 50.4, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, supported by government stimulus, strong holiday spending, and solid exports despite global supply chain disruptions and volatile energy markets. However, while the Chinese policymakers have repeatedly emphasized the need to pivot the economy toward domestic consumption and reduce reliance on external demand, geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Middle East war, could weigh on business activity in the coming months. The yuan is still on track for a monthly decline, as the US dollar continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical turbulence.