Trump Signals China Trade Truce Deal Ahead of August Deadline

China posted a record USD 1.189 trillion trade surplus in 2025, with exports rising 5.5% while imports were flat. Faced with Trump's tariffs, Chinese exporters shifted production away from the US market and toward alternative destinations, particularly the EU and Southeast Asia. In December alone, the surplus reached USD 114.1 billion, marking the seventh time monthly surpluses exceeded USD 100 billion last year. Exports grew by 6.6% yoy, after a 5.9% in November, surpassing expectations of 3.0% growth, marking the fastest pace since September, driven by a surge in exports to non-US markets, as governments have sought to diversify export destinations since Trump’s victory in the November 2024 presidential election and to deepen trade ties with ASEAN and the EU. Meanwhile, imports rose 5.7% yoy, beating expectations of 0.9% and marking the fastest pace in six months. China’s trade surplus with the US fell to USD 23.25 billion in December, down from USD 23.74 billion in November.

China’s trade surplus topped a record $1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year despite a deepening slump in shipments to the US with exports rising 5.4% while imports shrank 0.6%. In November alone, the surplus reached $112 billion, the third-largest on record and well above expectations, as exports rose more than imports. Exports increased 5.9% yoy, beating forecasts for 3.8% growth and rebounding from a 1.1% fall in October, boosted by a surge in shipments to non-US markets amid governments’ efforts to diversify export destinations since Trump won last November's presidential election and to deepen trade ties with ASEAN and the EU. Meanwhile, shipments to the US slumped by 28.6%, marking the 8th straight month of double-digit declines. Imports rose 1.9%, below expectations for a 2.8% rise but above the 1.0% gain in October. China’s trade surplus with the US fell to USD 23.74 billion in November, down from USD 24.76 billion in October.

Premier Li Qiang stressed the need to "cautiously manage" exports of minerals vital for military use, framing China’s sweeping curbs as a balance between security and cooperation. In a speech on Sunday during the Group of 20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, he pledged to promote mutually beneficial cooperation and the peaceful use of key minerals, while safeguarding the interests of developing countries and prudently addressing military and other uses. Hours later, Beijing unveiled a green mining initiative in partnership with 19 nations, including Cambodia, Nigeria, Myanmar, and Zimbabwe, in collaboration with the UN Industrial Development Organization. Though lacking financial commitments, the plan seeks to build an inclusive network, ensuring the "fair and reasonable, stable and smooth" mining of critical minerals.