Chile - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Chile including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Chile economy.


Overview Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.90 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 3 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.75 percent
Balance of Trade 983.00 1000 1350 1260 1450 1420 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 23.60 22.25 22.25 24.8 32.4 33.8 percent
MARKETS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Currency 637.26
614 626 638 651 703
Stock Market 28679.66
points
26673 25753 24863 24007 20862
Government Bond 10y 4.58
percent
4.59 4.72 4.85 4.99 5.57
GDP Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20
percent
1.5 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20
percent
3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.3
GDP 247.00
USD Billion
265 265 265 275 280
GDP Constant Prices 38044.00
CLP Billion
37083 37952 38836 37512 41562
Gross National Product 141633.98
CLP Billion
144063 144205 146450 146757 156729
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 9283.40
CLP Billion
7671 7799 9599 7606 10273
GDP per capita 15019.60
USD
15068 15087 15077 15038 14961
GDP per capita PPP 22706.70
USD
23156 23213 23100 23900 24500
GDP From Agriculture 1863.00
CLP Billion
901 535 1017 1974 1089
GDP From Construction 2135.00
CLP Billion
2232 2226 2877 2140 3079
GDP From Manufacturing 3923.00
CLP Billion
3867 3708 4015 3949 4297
GDP From Mining 3684.00
CLP Billion
3558 3961 4276 3196 4576
GDP From Public Administration 1761.00
CLP Billion
1755 1776 1822 1765 1950
GDP From Services 3454.00
CLP Billion
3609 3594 3895 3454 4168
GDP From Transport 3145.10
CLP Billion
3075 3154 3423 3125 3663
GDP From Utilities 1048.00
CLP Billion
946 1011 1100 1012 1178
LABOUR Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.90
percent
6.4 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.5
Employed Persons 8378.75
Thousand
8354 8351 8357 8356 8356
Unemployed Persons 621.38
Thousand
590 600 600 605 640
Employment Rate 55.80
percent
55.78 55.82 55.87 55.87 55.86
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.90
percent
60.05 60.08 60.05 60.07 60.06
Job Vacancies 21.80
Index Points
28.07 28.59 28.59 28.73 28.98
Wages 4629.00
CLP/Hour
4750 4800 4850 4920 5300
Wages in Manufacturing 108.05
Index Points
109 109 110 110 112
Minimum Wages 276000.00
CLP/Month
276000 276000 276000 285000 295000
Population 18.37
Million
18.2 18.33 18.37 18.42 19.12
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Wages High Skilled 1161900.00
CLP/Month
1171346 1171346 1171346 1171346 1191346
Wages Low Skilled 375500.00
CLP/Month
378734 378734 378734 378734 383498
Living Wage Family 622100.00
CLP/Month
630000 630000 630000 640000 640000
Living Wage Individual 400300.00
CLP/Month
400300 400300 400300 400300 400300
PRICES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90
percent
2.2 2.3 2.3 2.5 3
Consumer Price Index CPI 117.66
Index Points
118 118 119 120 126
Core Consumer Prices 118.19
Index Points
118 119 120 120 128
Core Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
1.98 2.06 3 1.93 3.2
Export Prices 97.00
Index Points
91.76 91.76 91.76 91.76 91.76
Import Prices 86.72
Index Points
84.59 84.6 84.67 84.58 84.1
Food Inflation 2.30
percent
2.5 2.6 2.2 3 3
Producer Prices 110.67
Index Points
109 112 117 115 126
Producer Prices Change 4.80
percent
3.7 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.5
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.24 0.24 0.5 0.23 0.6
CPI Transportation 106.22
Index Points
109 108 110 109 116
Gdp Deflator 123.20
Index Points
119 119 119 119 119
MONEY Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.75
Interbank Rate 2.78
percent
3.04 3.04 3.04 3.04 3.29
Money Supply M1 32978.08
CLP Billion
30711 30267 30853 31218 30905
Money Supply M2 129272.58
CLP Billion
124934 124912 124844 124761 123773
Money Supply M3 214636.32
CLP Billion
213736 214630 215091 215285 213731
Foreign Exchange Reserves 37311.50
USD Million
38660 38581 38513 38449 37771
Banks Balance Sheet 134916.12
CLP Million
115756 115709 115693 115688 115686
Loans to Private Sector 91523.00
CLP Billion
89187 89790 89644 89466 89550
Deposit Interest Rate 3.80
percent
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.05
Private Debt to GDP 198.60
percent
201 200 200 201 200
Central Bank Balance Sheet 24918.00
CLP Million
25083 25005 24943 24888 24348
TRADE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Balance of Trade 983.00
USD Million
1000 1350 1260 1450 1420
Exports 6353.10
USD Million
6200 6300 6430 6900 6400
Imports 5370.43
USD Million
5200 4950 5170 5450 4980
Current Account -269.25
USD Million
1300 1400 1600 1500 -700
Current Account to GDP -1.50
percent
-1.5 -2.05 -1.5 -2.02 -1.5
External Debt 184195.46
USD Million
167514 160766 154335 148207 97181
Capital Flows -1488.41
USD Million
-684 -733 31.75 -250 -283
Gold Reserves 0.25
Tonnes
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Terms Of Trade 102.59
Index Points
108 108 109 108 109
Terrorism Index 3.25
2.6 2.6 2.6 2.94 2.5
Foreign Direct Investment -5209.95
USD Million
-792 -691 -722 -712 -715
Crude Oil Production 3.00
BBL/D/1K
3.08 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09
GOVERNMENT Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.60
percent
22.25 22.25 24.8 32.4 33.8
Government Budget -2.80
percent of GDP
-2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -0.6 -2.1
Government Budget Value -1024972.70
CLP Million
-658091 -500029 -439358 -434606 -427834
Government Spending 5693.18
CLP Billion
5312 5425 5887 4291 6300
Government Revenues 3190231.44
CLP Million
3185396 3204794 3211564 3213285 3213647
Fiscal Expenditure 4215204.11
CLP Million
3843486 3704823 3662312 3647892 3641481
Military Expenditure 4805.30
USD Million
4639 4628 4618 4621 4646
BUSINESS Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Business Confidence 54.41
Index Points
56 57.5 58 57.8 57.5
Industrial Production 8.70
percent
2.3 2.2 2.2 2 2.5
Industrial Production Mom 0.00
percent
0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.3
Manufacturing Production -2.40
percent
2.8 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5
Changes in Inventories 1562.05
CLP Billion
360 330 350 3584 340
Total Vehicle Sales 33355.00
32366 31396 31342 31501 31547
Leading Economic Index 4.60
percent
2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6
Internet Speed 9258.62
KBps
10933 11608 12059 12343 16588
IP Addresses 3793061.00
IP
3889811 3883423 3903858 3900868 3929827
Steel Production 110.00
Thousand Tonnes
93.81 95.06 95.5 95.64 95.72
Mining Production 27.00
percent
-1.3 -0.8 -0.8 9.91 -1.4
Ease of Doing Business 55.00
48 47 45 44 36
Competitiveness Index 4.71
Points
4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67
Competitiveness Rank 33.00
33 33 33 33 33
Copper Production 496.37
Thousands of Tonnes
-0.9 2.8 530 525 550
Corruption Index 67.00
Points
69 69 69 67 67
Corruption Rank 26.00
23 23 23 26 22
CONSUMER Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 50.00
Index Points
52 52.5 53 52.8 53
Retail Sales MoM 13.10
percent
-2.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.4
Retail Sales YoY 4.10
percent
3.7 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.7
Consumer Spending 25207.44
CLP Billion
23763 23656 26064 23795 27894
Consumer Credit 21777.00
CLP Billion
22060 22188 22254 22281 21987
Private Sector Credit 144929.95
CLP Billion
142379 140587 140751 142473 141993
Bank Lending Rate 6.27
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.75
Households Debt To Gdp 43.70
Percent
43.65 43.65 43.65 43.65 43.65
Gasoline Prices 1.24
USD/Liter
1.21 1.14 1.07 1.01 0.71
HOUSING Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Housing Index 184.90
Index points
178 179 178 178 178
Building Permits 11890.00
Units
11012 11052 11076 11078 11078
Housing Starts 11890.00
10593 10643 10666 10666 10666
TAXES Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.50
percent
25.5 25.5 25.5 26 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 24.60
percent
24.6 24.6 24.6 25 25
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.60
percent
17.1 17.1 17.1 12.24 7.54
CLIMATE Actual Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 2020
Precipitation 22.80
mm
73.73 67.54 35.57 37.8 54.84
Temperature 11.90
celsius
7.27 6.12 11.08 13.14 9.6