Chile | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Chile including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Chile economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.7 6.6 6.4 7.1 6.9 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.50 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.25 2.25 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 714.90 1200 1100 1300 1250 1050 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 24.6 25.35 26.1 26.85 32.4 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 624.65 628 622 615 609 539 [+]
Stock Market 27463.19 26900 26700 26400 26100 23100 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.52 4.5 4.55 4.59 4.64 5.13 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.90 1.4 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.3 percent [+]
GDP 247.00 255 265 265 265 280 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 36585.76 37500 37800 35917 38300 390000 CLP Billion [+]
Gross National Product 141794.36 144200 149800 149800 149800 158700 CLP Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7582.11 7600 7640 7700 7850 7840 CLP Billion [+]
GDP per capita 15019.60 15050 15051 15052 15053 14932 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 22706.70 22645 22803 22812 22822 24500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 898.74 1005 2105 902 554 1205 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 2220.95 2480 2600 2570 2640 2780 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 3798.54 3777 3771 3761 3752 3677 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 3591.72 3650 3250 3710 3490 4560 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1721.20 1712 1709 1705 1700 1601 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Services 3697.32 3723 3535 3684 3522 3871 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 2995.77 2977 2971 2965 2959 2907 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 931.56 1050 979 932 965 1290 CLP Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.60 6.7 6.6 6.4 7.1 6.9 percent [+]
Employed Persons 8257.59 8289 8278 8267 8258 8182 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 587.34 535 550 540 575 550 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 55.56 55.62 55.54 55.47 55.41 55.15 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.51 59.46 59.43 59.4 59.38 59.34 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 33.00 31.33 32.73 33.99 35.19 44.44 Index Points [+]
Wages 4051.58 4033 4024 4030 4035 4040 CLP/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 154.04 154 154 154 154 151 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 265000.00 276000 267451 271080 274708 295000 CLP/Month [+]
Population 18.19 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.5 18.88 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Living Wage Family 521764.60 532169 532169 532170 532170 532170 CLP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 407760.50 414333 414467 414420 414437 414432 CLP/Month [+]
Wages High Skilled 1210400.00 1177260 1175714 1174593 1173781 1171760 CLP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 383200.00 345472 343148 341351 339961 335693 CLP/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 115.51 115 115 115 115 115 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 116.33 116 116 116 116 127 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.70 3.3 2.16 2.59 3.04 3.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 86.90 86.17 86.03 86.05 85.94 84.87 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 84.51 82.95 84 83.75 83.28 83.46 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation -0.50 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 percent [+]
Producer Prices 109.23 109 109 110 111 112 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 12.60 13 14 15 15 16 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 106.00 106 105 105 105 104 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.69 0.6 percent [+]
Gdp Deflator 118.10 118 117 116 116 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.25 2.25 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 2.85 2.79 2.77 2.76 2.74 2.62 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 30195.27 30099 30085 30078 30067 29951 CLP Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 108686.76 109682 109949 110032 110030 109471 CLP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 195208.61 197749 199019 199867 200414 200285 CLP Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 39035.00 39008 38956 38901 38847 38366 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 114477.00 114730 114651 114559 114462 113585 CLP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 89228.00 89403 89373 89284 89163 87792 CLP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 3.80 4.45 4.58 4.71 4.84 6.08 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 198.60 197 197 198 198 179 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 24783.00 25110 25268 25297 25271 24817 CLP Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 714.90 1200 1100 1300 1250 1050 USD Million [+]
Exports 5745.18 6000 6000 6100 6100 6300 USD Million [+]
Imports 5031.31 4800 4900 4800 4850 5250 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1549.00 -908 -870 -1040 -1000 -615 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.40 -1.9 -1.53 -1.68 -1.84 -2.02 percent [+]
External Debt 173920.09 162034 153283 145056 137332 85945 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -653.11 -689 -965 -570 -472 -376 USD Million [+]
Remittances 923.00 749 776 803 830 852 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.25 1.15 1.34 1.53 1.7 2.68 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 123.80 120 119 118 118 113 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 2.70 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 190.14 -841 -1133 -993 -1382 -1497 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 4.31 4.41 4.51 4.6 5.28 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 24.6 25.35 26.1 26.85 32.4 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.10 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -309150.80 -600000 -550000 -500000 -600000 -600000 CLP Million [+]
Government Spending 5170.66 3800 3800 4100 4928 5284 CLP Billion [+]
Government Revenues 3228343.91 2600998 2576190 2553371 2503044 2208941 CLP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 3537494.69 3550000 3287526 3222091 3161382 2741023 CLP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4583.00 4538 4519 4501 4482 4305 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 48.26 48.47 49.01 49.49 49.91 51.94 [+]
Industrial Production 5.10 -4.3 -5.2 -4.6 0.5 0.5 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 5.10 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.15 1.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.40 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 301.36 340 350 360 330 340 CLP Billion [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 35354.00 29155 28447 28050 27845 27634 [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.40 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
Mining Production 9.20 -1.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.5 -1.4 percent [+]
Steel Production 100.00 96.61 95.75 95.05 94.45 92.12 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 57.00 45 42 40 37 36 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.71 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.79 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 33.00 32 32 32 32 31 [+]
Copper Production 508.60 465 470 485 490 475 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 66.00 68 69 69 69 67 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 24.00 23 23 23 23 22 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 45.90 41.7 41.7 41.8 41.8 41.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 3.00 0.97 0.82 0.8 0.75 0.75 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 6.00 3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 23330.17 23304 26000 28000 30000 30000 CLP Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 20768.00 20889 20934 20947 20941 20670 CLP Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 140301.49 141528 141806 141939 141961 140109 CLP Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 6.79 6.99 7.32 7.63 7.87 6.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.09 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 177.00 176 176 176 176 175 Index points [+]
Housing Starts 9360.00 9819 9607 9445 9320 9005 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00 25 25 25 25 26.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]