Chile | Economic Forecasts | 2017-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Chile including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Chile economy.


Overview Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 percent [+]
Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.5 percent [+]
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 3 percent [+]
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.25 2.25 2.25 percent [+]
Balance of Trade 512.00 700 900 1100 1250 1200 USD Million [+]
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 24.6 25.35 26.1 26.85 32.4 percent [+]
MARKETS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Currency 655.40 628 622 615 609 539 [+]
Stock Market 24616.07 26900 26700 26400 26100 23100 points [+]
Government Bond 10y 4.68 4.5 4.55 4.59 4.64 5.13 percent [+]
GDP Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20 2.4 2 2.5 2.7 3.3 percent [+]
GDP 247.00 255 265 265 265 280 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 36542.49 37500 37800 35917 38300 390000 CLP Billion [+]
Gross National Product 141794.36 144200 149800 149800 149800 158700 CLP Billion [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7705.67 7600 7640 7700 7850 7840 CLP Billion [+]
GDP per capita 15019.60 15050 15051 15052 15053 14932 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 22706.70 22645 22803 22812 22822 24500 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 558.97 1005 2105 902 554 1205 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Construction 2161.01 2480 2600 2570 2640 2780 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 3773.27 3777 3771 3761 3752 3677 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Mining 3952.19 3650 3700 3710 3740 3860 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Public Administration 1739.84 1712 1709 1705 1700 1601 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Services 3537.17 3723 3535 3684 3522 3871 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Transport 3049.89 2977 2971 2965 2959 2907 CLP Billion [+]
GDP From Utilities 994.31 1050 979 932 965 1290 CLP Billion [+]
LABOUR Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.5 percent [+]
Employed Persons 8297.15 8299 8286 8276 8267 8194 Thousand [+]
Unemployed Persons 600.05 580 580 575 575 550 Thousand [+]
Employment Rate 55.67 55.6 55.52 55.45 55.4 55.15 percent [+]
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.69 59.63 59.54 59.49 59.46 59.36 percent [+]
Job Vacancies 23.60 29.11 30.15 31.42 32.62 41.92 Index Points [+]
Wages 4553.43 4557 4549 4030 4035 4040 CLP/Hour [+]
Wages in Manufacturing 105.93 82.16 74.65 76.79 83.76 118 Index Points [+]
Minimum Wages 270000.00 276000 269464 273777 278089 295000 CLP/Month [+]
Population 18.19 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.5 18.88 Million [+]
Retirement Age Women 60.00 60 60 60 60 60 [+]
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65 [+]
Wages High Skilled 1161900.00 1174718 1167974 1164603 1161231 1161312 CLP/Month [+]
Wages Low Skilled 375500.00 378739 382223 383965 385707 383498 CLP/Month [+]
Living Wage Family 622100.00 613898 614139 614260 614381 614699 CLP/Month [+]
Living Wage Individual 400300.00 392280 392692 392898 393105 393982 CLP/Month [+]
PRICES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Inflation Rate 1.90 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.3 3 percent [+]
Consumer Price Index CPI 116.29 116 116 116 116 119 Index Points [+]
Core Consumer Prices 116.82 117 117 117 117 127 Index Points [+]
Core Inflation Rate 1.80 3.3 1.93 2.32 2.76 3.2 percent [+]
Export Prices 91.80 94.78 94.86 94.22 93.95 90.1 Index Points [+]
Import Prices 84.95 86.94 86.98 86.03 85.74 84.97 Index Points [+]
Food Inflation 1.60 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 percent [+]
Producer Prices 111.28 109 110 110 111 112 Index Points [+]
Producer Prices Change 15.00 13 14 15 15 16 percent [+]
CPI Transportation 105.76 106 106 105 105 104 Index Points [+]
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.68 0.6 percent [+]
Gdp Deflator 118.10 118 117 116 116 112 Index Points [+]
MONEY Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.25 2.25 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 3.06 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 30635.82 30541 30622 30625 30612 30499 CLP Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 122164.01 126610 129068 129992 130282 129672 CLP Billion [+]
Money Supply M3 208081.43 218512 227295 234100 239140 250462 CLP Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 37911.50 38163 37968 37887 37826 37329 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 117588.00 119231 119562 119603 119550 118672 CLP Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 89314.00 89940 90054 90046 89970 88664 CLP Billion [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 3.80 4.45 4.58 4.71 4.84 6.08 percent [+]
Private Debt to GDP 198.60 197 197 198 198 179 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 27001.00 25880 26187 26244 26220 25793 CLP Million [+]
TRADE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Balance of Trade 512.00 700 900 1100 1250 1200 USD Million [+]
Exports 6016.47 6000 6000 6100 6100 6350 USD Million [+]
Imports 5504.48 5300 5100 5000 4850 5150 USD Million [+]
Current Account -1507.00 -1300 -1200 -1250 -1000 -620 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -1.40 -1.9 -1.53 -1.68 -1.84 -2.02 percent [+]
External Debt 175753.73 165266 156727 148677 141099 90118 USD Million [+]
Capital Flows -2595.77 -780 -551 -987 -1140 -416 USD Million [+]
Remittances 923.00 749 776 803 830 852 USD Million [+]
Gold Reserves 0.25 1.15 1.34 1.53 1.7 2.68 Tonnes [+]
Terms Of Trade 99.16 98.59 97.45 97.43 96.4 89.12 Index Points [+]
Terrorism Index 3.25 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 [+]
Foreign Direct Investment -429.80 -705 -700 -803 -1035 -1403 USD Million [+]
Crude Oil Production 4.00 4.31 4.41 4.51 4.6 5.28 BBL/D/1K [+]
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 24.6 25.35 26.1 26.85 32.4 percent [+]
Government Budget -3.10 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1 percent of GDP [+]
Government Budget Value -189683.80 -600000 -550000 -500000 -600000 -600000 CLP Million [+]
Government Spending 5258.31 3800 3800 4100 4928 5284 CLP Billion [+]
Government Revenues 3000112.89 2994346 2876500 2796449 2724133 2322574 CLP Million [+]
Fiscal Expenditure 3189796.70 3550000 3391518 3292795 3224757 2799812 CLP Million [+]
Military Expenditure 4583.00 4538 4519 4501 4482 4305 USD Million [+]
BUSINESS Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Business Confidence 47.01 49.15 49.64 50.05 50.42 52.16 [+]
Industrial Production 5.00 -0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.3 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -1.80 -1.5 -1.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 0.60 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories 201.57 340 350 360 330 340 CLP Billion [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 35458.00 31169 29372 28555 28156 27731 [+]
Leading Economic Index 2.90 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 percent [+]
Internet Speed 9258.62 10252 10095 10419 10533 9728 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 3793061.00 3756147 3749839 3720663 3696221 3483990 IP [+]
Steel Production 100.00 98 96.67 95.8 95.09 92.27 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Mining Production 10.50 -1.5 -1.6 -1.3 -0.8 -1.4 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 55.00 51 48 47 45 34 [+]
Competitiveness Index 4.71 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.79 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 33.00 32 32 32 32 31 [+]
Copper Production 512.70 465 470 485 490 475 Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 66.00 68 69 69 69 67 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 24.00 23 23 23 23 22 [+]
CONSUMER Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 46.50 41.7 41.7 41.8 41.8 41.8 [+]
Retail Sales MoM 0.80 0.91 0.79 0.69 0.74 0.73 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 3.70 3 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.8 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 23395.18 23683 24000 24000 25000 28000 CLP Billion [+]
Consumer Credit 20890.00 20903 20953 20969 20965 20699 CLP Billion [+]
Private Sector Credit 141446.68 143173 144030 144597 144946 144047 CLP Billion [+]
Bank Lending Rate 6.57 7.08 7.4 7.69 7.91 6.7 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.15 1.14 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.1 USD/Liter [+]
HOUSING Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Housing Index 180.10 180 180 180 180 179 Index points [+]
Building Permits 7181.00 8021 8265 8458 8614 9028 Units [+]
Housing Starts 7181.00 8024 8243 8434 8585 8957 [+]
TAXES Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00 25 25 25 25 26.5 percent [+]
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00 35 35 35 35 35 percent [+]
Sales Tax Rate 19.00 19 19 19 19 19 percent [+]
Social Security Rate 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00 7 7 7 7 7 percent [+]
CLIMATE Actual Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 2020
Precipitation 22.00 52.11 52 51.81 51.9 51.9 mm [+]
Temperature 11.00 10.2 9.26 5.74 6.72 9.46 celsius [+]