Chile - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Chile including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Chile economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 1.2 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.30 7.4 7.3 7 6.8 6.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.6 3.1 3 2.8 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade -301.70 -350 -50 50 100 100 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 23.60 25 25 27 27 30 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 672.90
 668 673 678 684 705
Stock Market 27293.21
points		 26362 26047 25738 25431 24241
Government Bond 10y 4.84
percent		 4.74 4.78 4.82 4.86 5.03
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent		 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 1.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.30
percent		 3.4 4 3.6 3.4 3.6
GDP 277.08
USD Billion		 295 295 300 300 306
GDP Constant Prices 38311.18
CLP Billion		 37985 39098 39419 39614 41964
Gross National Product 141633.98
CLP Billion		 144205 147299 146733 146450 158096
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8085.14
CLP Billion		 7799 9655 7847 8360 10362
GDP per capita 15059.53
USD		 15087 15087 16000 16000 16500
GDP per capita PPP 22767.04
USD		 22880 22880 23400 23400 24500
GDP From Agriculture 955.87
CLP Billion		 535 1023 2000 988 1098
GDP From Construction 2297.53
CLP Billion		 2226 2894 2196 2376 3106
GDP From Manufacturing 4084.72
CLP Billion		 3708 4038 4079 4224 4334
GDP From Mining 3669.15
CLP Billion		 3961 4301 3810 3794 4616
GDP From Public Administration 1742.26
CLP Billion		 1776 1833 1787 1801 1967
GDP From Services 3744.57
CLP Billion		 3594 3918 3572 3872 4205
GDP From Transport 1889.13
CLP Billion		 1903 2050 1983 1953 2200
GDP From Utilities 1002.96
CLP Billion		 1011 1107 1085 1037 1188
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.30
percent		 7.4 7.3 7 6.8 6.8
Employed Persons 8349.62
Thousand 		8313 8307 8311 8312 8311
Unemployed Persons 659.34
Thousand 		650 665 675 680 675
Employment Rate 55.30
percent		 55.13 55.25 55.35 55.35 55.33
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.70
percent		 59.56 59.57 59.57 59.57 59.57
Job Vacancies 25.30
Index Points		 23.72 23.92 23.97 23.98 23.99
Wages 4638.63
CLP/Hour		 4665 4700 4850 4840 5300
Wages in Manufacturing 109.05
Index Points		 108 109 109 109 112
Minimum Wages 276000.00
CLP/Month		 276000 276000 280000 280000 290000
Population 18.37
Million		 18.51 18.51 18.7 18.7 19.1
Retirement Age Women 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Living Wage Family 622100.00
CLP/Month		 630000 630000 620000 620000 640000
Living Wage Individual 400300.00
CLP/Month		 405000 405000 402500 402500 392393
Wages High Skilled 1161900.00
CLP/Month		 1171346 1171346 1200000 1200000 1191000
Wages Low Skilled 375500.00
CLP/Month		 378734 378734 374000 374000 383498
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60
percent		 2.6 3.1 3 2.8 2.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 118.73
Index Points		 118 118 119 119 122
Core Consumer Prices 118.87
Index Points		 119 120 120 121 128
Core Inflation Rate 2.00
percent		 2.06 3 2.12 2.12 3.2
Export Prices 96.40
Index Points		 96.34 96.67 96.78 96.77 96.74
Import Prices 88.59
Index Points		 90.76 89.86 89.89 89.91 90.33
Food Inflation 2.70
percent		 2.6 2.4 3 3.4 3
Producer Prices 110.94
Index Points		 112 120 119 125 139
Producer Prices Change 1.60
percent		 3 6.2 7.4 7.6 7.8
CPI Transportation 108.41
Index Points		 109 111 109 111 117
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent		 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
Gdp Deflator 123.50
Index Points		 125 126 127 126 133
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent		 2.5 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.25
Interbank Rate 2.74
percent		 2.74 2.99 2.99 2.99 3.49
Money Supply M1 33192.21
CLP Billion		 33506 34185 34787 35353 40952
Money Supply M2 132701.93
CLP Billion		 133771 136783 139787 142778 172086
Money Supply M3 218652.33
CLP Billion		 220594 224542 228734 232930 274297
Foreign Exchange Reserves 36781.20
USD Million		 37030 36756 36580 36430 35431
Banks Balance Sheet 138643.00
CLP Million		 237575 237540 237540 237540 237540
Loans to Private Sector 96597.00
CLP Billion		 97926 99335 100737 102127 115567
Deposit Interest Rate 2.90
percent		 2.9 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3
Private Debt to GDP 189.10
percent		 189 189 193 193 184
Central Bank Balance Sheet 26833.00
CLP Million		 26741 27008 27209 27371 28030
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -301.70
USD Million		 -350 -50 50 100 100
Exports 6231.83
USD Million		 6000 6200 6150 6250 6300
Imports 6534.00
USD Million		 6350 6250 6100 6150 6200
Current Account -1846.00
USD Million		 -2100 -400 -650 -700 -700
Current Account to GDP -1.50
percent		 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1
External Debt 180366.95
USD Million		 188000 190000 190000 192000 195000
Capital Flows -786.06
USD Million		 -1166 -166 -1115 -901 -804
Gold Reserves 0.25
Tonnes		 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Terms Of Trade 99.78
Index Points		 106 107 108 108 107
Terrorism Index 3.25
 2.6 2.6 3.21 3.21 2.5
Tourist Arrivals 201387.00
Persons		 308400 372800 310900 293000 317100
Foreign Direct Investment -1578.30
USD Million		 -3000 -1500 -900 -700 -600
Crude Oil Production 3.00
BBL/D/1K		 3 3 3 3 3
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.60
percent		 25 25 27 27 30
Government Budget -2.80
percent of GDP		 -2.4 -2.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3
Government Budget Value -292900.70
CLP Million		 -794941 -443471 -430640 -412342 -407506
Government Spending 5376.39
CLP Billion		 5425 5921 4357 5559 6355
Government Revenues 3057719.59
CLP Million		 2920799 3144692 3173555 3184461 3186586
Fiscal Expenditure 3350620.27
CLP Million		 3715740 3623989 3604195 3596803 3594091
Military Expenditure 4805.30
USD Million		 4848 4848 4900 4900 4985
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 50.82
Index Points		 50.6 50.7 51.2 51.4 52
Industrial Production -1.60
percent		 0.8 1 3.6 4 4.2
Industrial Production Mom -1.00
percent		 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.3
Manufacturing Production -1.40
percent		 -3.4 -2.5 -0.7 -1.1 2.2
Changes in Inventories 765.80
CLP Billion		 330 350 2134 779 340
Total Vehicle Sales 31285.00
 33016 32789 32724 32713 32713
Leading Economic Index 3.30
percent		 4.2 4 4 3.7 3.7
Internet Speed 9258.62
KBps		 11608 12059 12343 12803 16588
IP Addresses 3793061.00
IP		 3883423 3903858 3900868 3906287 3929827
Steel Production 85.00
Thousand Tonnes		 90.85 93.35 94.25 94.54 94.69
Mining Production -2.50
percent		 3 2.4 3.4 3 3.5
Ease of Doing Business 55.00
 56 56 58 58 57
Competitiveness Index 4.71
Points		 4.7 4.7 4.74 4.74 4.8
Competitiveness Rank 33.00
 33 33 33 33 33
Copper Production 487.80
Thousands of Tonnes		 0 560 550 560 570
Corruption Index 67.00
Points		 69 69 71 72 67
Corruption Rank 26.00
 23 23 24 24 22
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 47.00
Index Points		 45 46 49 51 52.3
Retail Sales MoM -3.20
percent		 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.86 1.4
Retail Sales YoY 0.10
percent		 3.7 3.4 3.4 1.61 3.7
Consumer Spending 24443.10
CLP Billion		 23656 26216 24719 25274 28137
Consumer Credit 22123.00
CLP Billion		 22509 22850 23186 23510 26202
Private Sector Credit 151432.33
CLP Billion		 154403 156993 159495 161969 185878
Households Debt To Gdp 43.70
Percent		 44.52 44.89 45.01 45.31 46.42
Bank Lending Rate 6.32
percent		 6.32 6.57 6.57 6.57 7.07
Gasoline Prices 1.24
USD/Liter		 1.26 1.19 1.13 1.07 0.84
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 182.90
Index points		 185 185 185 186 187
Building Permits 6606.00
Units		 7500 10200 11500 12000 12000
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 27.00
percent		 27 27 27 27 27
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent		 19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 24.60
percent		 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.60
percent		 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 22.80
mm		 67.54 35.57 37.8 51.39 54.84
Temperature 11.90
celsius		 6.12 11.08 13.14 8.55 9.6