Chile - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Chile including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Chile economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 7.00 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade 483.00 1200 1200 1150 1150 1200 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 23.60 25 25 27 27 30 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 650.13
 664 678 693 708 772
Stock Market 26843.21
points		 25730 24846 23990 23164 20137
Government Bond 10y 4.57
percent		 4.67 4.77 4.86 4.96 5.37
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.20
percent		 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.20
percent		 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3
GDP 277.08
USD Billion		 265 265 275 275 280
GDP Constant Prices 38044.00
CLP Billion		 37986 38910 39337 37740 41560
Gross National Product 141633.98
CLP Billion		 144276 146591 146450 146615 156577
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7615.00
CLP Billion		 7803 9608 7874 7806 10263
GDP per capita 15059.53
USD		 15087 15087 16000 16000 16500
GDP per capita PPP 22767.04
USD		 22880 22880 23400 23400 24500
GDP From Agriculture 1863.00
CLP Billion		 536 1018 1926 917 1088
GDP From Construction 2135.00
CLP Billion		 2227 2880 2208 2272 3076
GDP From Manufacturing 3923.00
CLP Billion		 3710 4019 4056 3936 4292
GDP From Mining 3684.00
CLP Billion		 3963 4280 3809 3621 4572
GDP From Public Administration 1761.00
CLP Billion		 1777 1824 1821 1786 1948
GDP From Services 3454.00
CLP Billion		 3596 3899 3571 3673 4164
GDP From Transport 3145.10
CLP Billion		 3156 3426 3252 3130 3659
GDP From Utilities 1048.00
CLP Billion		 1012 1101 1084 963 1176
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 7.00
percent		 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5
Employed Persons 8392.56
Thousand 		8432 8431 8429 8429 8429
Unemployed Persons 630.61
Thousand 		650 600 605 615 640
Employment Rate 55.70
percent		 55.82 55.86 55.84 55.83 55.83
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.90
percent		 59.91 59.89 59.91 59.9 59.9
Job Vacancies 31.20
Index Points		 22.79 22.88 22.89 22.89 22.88
Wages 4628.84
CLP/Hour		 4665 4700 4850 4840 5300
Wages in Manufacturing 108.12
Index Points		 108 109 109 109 112
Minimum Wages 276000.00
CLP/Month		 276000 276000 280000 280000 290000
Population 18.37
Million		 18.51 18.51 18.7 18.7 19.1
Retirement Age Women 60.00
 60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Wages High Skilled 1161900.00
CLP/Month		 1171346 1171346 1200000 1200000 1191000
Wages Low Skilled 375500.00
CLP/Month		 378734 378734 374000 374000 383498
Living Wage Family 622100.00
CLP/Month		 630000 630000 620000 620000 640000
Living Wage Individual 400300.00
CLP/Month		 405000 405000 402500 402500 392393
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent		 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 118.11
Index Points		 118 118 119 119 122
Core Consumer Prices 118.44
Index Points		 118 120 120 120 128
Core Inflation Rate 1.70
percent		 1.73 3 1.73 1.73 3.2
Export Prices 97.00
Index Points		 95.73 96.11 96.31 96.25 96.22
Import Prices 86.72
Index Points		 85.5 85.28 86.29 85.28 85.32
Food Inflation 3.60
percent		 2.6 2.4 3 3.4 3
Producer Prices 113.72
Index Points		 117 123 121 125 147
Producer Prices Change 8.10
percent		 8 8.6 9 9.4 9.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent		 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6
CPI Transportation 107.67
Index Points		 109 110 109 111 117
Gdp Deflator 124.90
Index Points		 126 127 129 129 139
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent		 2.5 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.25
Interbank Rate 2.70
percent		 2.7 2.95 2.95 2.95 3.45
Money Supply M1 33831.35
CLP Billion		 34351 35006 35647 36282 42533
Money Supply M2 132063.48
CLP Billion		 135411 138703 141980 145243 177164
Money Supply M3 219161.39
CLP Billion		 223713 228147 230794 232919 237796
Foreign Exchange Reserves 37989.20
USD Million		 37757 37619 37521 37438 36890
Banks Balance Sheet 138602.00
CLP Million		 143530 146010 148476 150928 174699
Loans to Private Sector 94608.00
CLP Billion		 97236 98684 100053 101402 114380
Deposit Interest Rate 2.90
percent		 2.9 3.15 3.15 3.15 3.65
Private Debt to GDP 189.10
percent		 189 189 193 193 184
Central Bank Balance Sheet 24850.00
CLP Million		 24759 24660 24579 24515 24295
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 483.00
USD Million		 1200 1200 1150 1150 1200
Exports 6471.74
USD Million		 6600 6700 6750 6800 6900
Imports 5988.72
USD Million		 5400 5500 5600 5650 5700
Current Account -269.25
USD Million		 1400 1600 1500 1500 -700
Current Account to GDP -1.50
percent		 -1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1
External Debt 183294.31
USD Million		 188000 190000 190000 192000 195000
Capital Flows -1488.41
USD Million		 -1184 -181 -1139 -943 -831
Gold Reserves 0.25
Tonnes		 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Terms Of Trade 102.59
Index Points		 112 113 112 113 113
Terrorism Index 3.25
 2.6 2.6 3.21 3.21 2.5
Tourist Arrivals 374156.00
Persons		 342800 366600 342000 336200 344500
Foreign Direct Investment -5209.95
USD Million		 -3000 -1500 -900 -700 -600
Crude Oil Production 3.00
BBL/D/1K		 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 23.60
percent		 25 25 27 27 30
Government Budget -2.80
percent of GDP		 -2.4 -2.4 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3
Government Budget Value -2063858.50
CLP Million		 -318489 -216507 -216143 -197129 -185813
Government Spending 4259.00
CLP Billion		 5428 5892 4404 5406 6294
Government Revenues 1374960.12
CLP Million		 3391117 3414104 3426521 3439811 3448414
Fiscal Expenditure 3438818.65
CLP Million		 3709605 3660091 3642664 3636940 3634227
Military Expenditure 4805.30
USD Million		 4848 4848 4900 4900 4985
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 55.05
Index Points		 55 56.4 56.8 57 58
Industrial Production 3.60
percent		 5.6 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.4
Industrial Production Mom 0.20
percent		 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.17 1.3
Manufacturing Production 1.80
percent		 -3.4 -2.5 -0.7 -1.1 2.2
Changes in Inventories 1562.05
CLP Billion		 330 350 1815 2568 340
Total Vehicle Sales 35470.00
 33654 33310 33916 33558 33719
Leading Economic Index 4.90
percent		 4.2 4 4 3.7 3.7
Internet Speed 9258.62
KBps		 11608 12059 12343 12803 16588
IP Addresses 3793061.00
IP		 3883423 3903858 3900868 3906287 3929827
Steel Production 85.00
Thousand Tonnes		 94.09 95.38 95.83 95.98 96.06
Mining Production 6.40
percent		 18.5 15 17 20 25
Ease of Doing Business 55.00
 56 56 58 58 57
Competitiveness Index 4.71
Points		 4.7 4.7 4.74 4.74 4.8
Competitiveness Rank 33.00
 33 33 33 33 33
Copper Production 498.40
Thousands of Tonnes		 540 560 550 545 560
Corruption Index 67.00
Points		 69 69 71 72 67
Corruption Rank 26.00
 23 23 24 24 22
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 51.20
Index Points		 52 53 52.8 53 53.5
Retail Sales MoM 3.20
percent		 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.82 1.4
Retail Sales YoY 3.00
percent		 3.7 3.4 3.4 4.15 3.7
Consumer Spending 23878.00
CLP Billion		 23668 26090 24690 24184 27867
Consumer Credit 22032.00
CLP Billion		 22509 22850 23186 23510 26202
Private Sector Credit 147997.56
CLP Billion		 151847 153989 156098 158182 177741
Bank Lending Rate 6.05
percent		 6.05 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.8
Households Debt To Gdp 43.70
Percent		 44.52 44.89 45.01 45.31 46.42
Gasoline Prices 1.23
USD/Liter		 1.16 1.1 1.04 0.98 0.72
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 184.90
Index points		 187 187 188 189 191
Building Permits 15492.00
Units		 11556 11649 11677 11677 11677
Housing Starts 15492.00
 11161 11254 11280 11279 11279
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.50
percent		 25.5 25.5 27 27 27
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent		 19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 24.60
percent		 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.6
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.60
percent		 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 22.80
mm		 67.54 35.57 37.8 51.39 54.84
Temperature 11.90
celsius		 6.12 11.08 13.14 8.55 9.6