Chile - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Chile including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Chile economy.


Overview Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.40 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.20 2.5 2.7 3 2.7 3 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.75 3 percent
Balance of Trade 1210.00 900 1100 1250 1200 1200 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 21.07 22.25 22.25 24.6 34.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Currency 594.13
615 626 638 650 701
Stock Market 28436.32
points
27934 26989 26078 25196 19136
Government Bond 10y 4.54
percent
4.67 4.81 4.95 5.09 5.72
GDP Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.20
percent
2 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.3
GDP 247.00
USD Billion
265 265 265 265 280
GDP Constant Prices 36542.49
CLP Billion
37800 36548 38300 38000 390000
Gross National Product 141794.36
CLP Billion
149800 149800 149800 149800 158700
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 7705.67
CLP Billion
7640 7700 7850 7760 7840
GDP per capita 15019.60
USD
15064 15060 15055 15050 14818
GDP per capita PPP 22706.70
USD
22773 22780 22787 23100 24500
GDP From Agriculture 558.97
CLP Billion
2105 902 554 1000 1205
GDP From Construction 2161.01
CLP Billion
2600 2570 2640 2600 2780
GDP From Manufacturing 3773.27
CLP Billion
3768 3758 3749 3740 3644
GDP From Mining 3952.19
CLP Billion
3700 3710 3740 3800 3860
GDP From Public Administration 1739.84
CLP Billion
1734 1730 1725 1721 1601
GDP From Services 3537.17
CLP Billion
3540 3686 3526 3676 3871
GDP From Transport 3049.89
CLP Billion
3040 3034 3029 3023 2956
GDP From Utilities 994.31
CLP Billion
979 932 965 1120 1290
LABOUR Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.40
percent
6.5 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.5
Employed Persons 8406.53
Thousand
8459 8447 8434 8424 8313
Unemployed Persons 571.11
Thousand
580 575 575 570 550
Employment Rate 56.20
percent
56.3 56.13 56 55.89 55.31
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.10
percent
59.98 59.81 59.71 59.63 59.41
Job Vacancies 22.40
Index Points
26.29 27.95 29.2 30.37 42.09
Wages 4553.43
CLP/Hour
4549 4030 4035 4020 4040
Wages in Manufacturing 107.88
Index Points
109 110 111 112 116
Minimum Wages 276000.00
CLP/Month
276000 276000 276000 276000 295000
Population 18.19
Million
18.2 18.2 18.37 18.2 18.88
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Wages High Skilled 1161900.00
CLP/Month
1171346 1171346 1171346 1171346 1191346
Wages Low Skilled 375500.00
CLP/Month
378734 378734 378734 378734 383498
Living Wage Family 622100.00
CLP/Month
614019 614139 614260 614381 614699
Living Wage Individual 400300.00
CLP/Month
392486 392692 392898 393105 394003
PRICES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.5 2.7 3 2.7 3
Consumer Price Index CPI 117.00
Index Points
116 116 116 117 119
Core Consumer Prices 117.26
Index Points
117 118 118 122 127
Core Inflation Rate 1.80
percent
1.86 2.19 2.61 3 3.2
Export Prices 91.80
Index Points
94.86 94.22 93.95 93.72 88.88
Import Prices 84.95
Index Points
86.98 86.03 85.74 85.9 84.71
Food Inflation 3.90
percent
1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 2
Producer Prices 112.92
Index Points
110 110 111 111 112
Producer Prices Change 8.40
percent
14 15 15 15 16
CPI Transportation 107.30
Index Points
107 106 106 106 104
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.3 0.3 0.24 0.5 0.6
Gdp Deflator 119.20
Index Points
119 119 118 118 112
MONEY Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.75 3
Interbank Rate 2.72
percent
2.9 2.9 2.8 2.72 2.7
Money Supply M1 32252.97
CLP Billion
32115 32117 32128 32123 31970
Money Supply M2 124763.39
CLP Billion
125562 125940 126020 125995 125083
Money Supply M3 209119.35
CLP Billion
209712 209552 209455 209343 207415
Foreign Exchange Reserves 39540.10
USD Million
39399 39381 39329 39275 38640
Banks Balance Sheet 117704.00
CLP Million
119049 119069 119009 118922 118135
Loans to Private Sector 90010.00
CLP Billion
90060 89997 89887 89756 87977
Deposit Interest Rate 3.80
percent
4.65 4.58 4.51 4.45 6.6
Private Debt to GDP 198.60
percent
199 198 198 197 173
Central Bank Balance Sheet 25942.00
CLP Million
26040 26036 26005 25962 25397
TRADE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Balance of Trade 1210.00
USD Million
900 1100 1250 1200 1200
Exports 6655.69
USD Million
6000 6100 6100 6200 6350
Imports 5445.90
USD Million
5100 5000 4850 5000 5150
Current Account -1507.00
USD Million
-1200 -1250 -1000 -850 -620
Current Account to GDP -1.40
percent
-2.38 -2.05 -2.05 -1.38 -2.31
External Debt 178858.64
USD Million
171629 164409 157532 150990 93411
Capital Flows -2595.77
USD Million
-551 -987 -1140 -610 -377
Remittances 923.00
USD Million
879 836 792 749 790
Gold Reserves 0.25
Tonnes
0.92 1.13 1.31 1.5 2.49
Terms Of Trade 99.16
Index Points
97.45 97.43 96.4 94.41 90.63
Terrorism Index 3.25
2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5
Foreign Direct Investment -429.80
USD Million
-700 -803 -1035 -1094 -1446
Crude Oil Production 4.00
BBL/D/1K
4.41 4.51 4.6 4.69 5.52
GOVERNMENT Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.30
percent
21.07 22.25 22.25 24.6 34.1
Government Budget -2.80
percent of GDP
-2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.1
Government Budget Value -2358474.60
CLP Million
-550000 -500000 -600000 -500000 -600000
Government Spending 5258.31
CLP Billion
3800 4100 5132 5432 5297
Government Revenues 3264938.21
CLP Million
3006309 2902533 2809659 2739053 2270957
Fiscal Expenditure 5623412.76
CLP Million
4492587 4070048 3917118 3855013 3277310
Military Expenditure 4583.00
USD Million
4581 4567 4552 4538 4221
BUSINESS Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Business Confidence 53.79
Index Points
52.52 52.73 52.79 52.84 53.14
Industrial Production 0.30
percent
0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.3
Industrial Production Mom -0.40
percent
-1.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.3
Manufacturing Production -3.40
percent
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6
Changes in Inventories 201.57
CLP Billion
350 360 330 350 340
Total Vehicle Sales 34758.00
31342 29745 28936 28498 27929
Leading Economic Index 2.60
percent
2.1 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.6
Internet Speed 9258.62
KBps
10095 10419 10533 10374 9138
IP Addresses 3793061.00
IP
3749839 3720663 3696221 3676824 3400187
Steel Production 105.00
Thousand Tonnes
99.37 98.68 97.43 96.46 92.26
Mining Production 4.20
percent
-1.6 -1.3 -0.8 -0.8 -1.4
Ease of Doing Business 55.00
50 48 47 45 36
Competitiveness Index 4.71
Points
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8
Competitiveness Rank 33.00
32 32 32 32 31
Copper Production 536.60
Thousands of Tonnes
470 485 490 465 475
Corruption Index 66.00
Points
69 69 69 69 67
Corruption Rank 24.00
22 23 23 23 22
CONSUMER Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Consumer Confidence 53.10
Index Points
41.7 41.8 41.8 41.7 41.8
Retail Sales MoM 30.20
percent
4.19 -2.1 0.81 0.72 0.82
Retail Sales YoY 4.80
percent
3.2 3.3 3.2 3.4 3.8
Consumer Spending 23395.18
CLP Billion
24000 24000 25000 25000 28000
Consumer Credit 21456.00
CLP Billion
21870 22118 22259 22333 22073
Private Sector Credit 142195.61
CLP Billion
143543 143957 144192 144294 141912
Bank Lending Rate 6.37
percent
6.5 6.87 7.28 6.7 6.7
Gasoline Prices 1.26
USD/Liter
1.25 1.24 1.24 1.24 1.2
HOUSING Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Housing Index 178.90
Index points
179 179 179 179 178
Building Permits 10219.00
Units
9369 9223 9179 9149 9062
Housing Starts 10219.00
9322 9175 9124 9085 8984
TAXES Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 25.50
percent
25 25 25 25 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 24.60
percent
24 24 24 24 8
Social Security Rate For Employees 17.60
percent
17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 7.54
CLIMATE Actual Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 2020
Precipitation 22.80
mm
37.73 73.73 67.54 35.57 54.84
Temperature 11.90
celsius
13.12 7.27 6.12 11.08 9.6