Ibovespa Climbs on Iran Ceasefire Hopes

The Ibovespa climbed nearly 2% to trade above 185,000 on Wednesday after reports hinted at a possible ceasefire in the US-Israel war against Iran, raising hopes for resumed Persian Gulf oil exports. The news pulled down international oil prices, easing energy-driven inflation concerns. Major banks traded higher: Bradesco and Banco do Brasil both up about 2%. Utilities posted gains, with Axia and Sabesp advancing nearly 2%. Other notable performers included Vale up 1.9%, Rede D'Or up 2.7%, and WEG up 3%. In contrast, lower oil prices and easing supply pressures drove Petrobras down over 1%.

The Ibovespa closed 0.3% higher at 182,509 on Tuesday as a late recovery in Petrobras and Vale offset pressure from rising interest rates. Petrobras jumped 3.7% as Brent crude surged past $102 per barrel and Vale added 0.8% to provide a vital cushion. These gains countered a selloff in the banking sector where Itaú fell 0.4% and Bradesco dropped 1.1% as future interest rates advanced. Minutes from the Central Bank confirmed that oil price volatility remains decisive for the Selic rate calibration cycle which limited appetite for credit-sensitive utilities. Despite the volatile external environment foreign investors have maintained a strong push into Brazil with net inflows reaching R$ 48.6 billion for the year.

The Ibovespa fell nearly 1% to hover below 181,000 on Tuesday as oil prices rebounded and pressured the global economic outlook. Energy supply concerns resurfaced after Iran denied holding US talks to end the Gulf war, contradicting Trump's comments about a potential deal. Also, minutes from the Central Bank of Brazil showed that policymakers reiterated that the increase in oil prices may prevent the higher magnitude of rate cuts that were expected for this year. Major banks tumbled, Itaú was down 1.4%, and Bradesco nearly 2%. Utilities also fell, with Axia losing near 2% and Sabesp over 1%. In contrast, higher oil prices supported energy stocks, with Petrobras up about 3%.