Ibovespa Rebounds on Tuesday

The Ibovespa closed 0.3% higher at 182,509 on Tuesday as a late recovery in Petrobras and Vale offset pressure from rising interest rates. Petrobras jumped 3.7% as Brent crude surged past $102 per barrel and Vale added 0.8% to provide a vital cushion. These gains countered a selloff in the banking sector where Itaú fell 0.4% and Bradesco dropped 1.1% as future interest rates advanced. Minutes from the Central Bank confirmed that oil price volatility remains decisive for the Selic rate calibration cycle which limited appetite for credit-sensitive utilities. Despite the volatile external environment foreign investors have maintained a strong push into Brazil with net inflows reaching R$ 48.6 billion for the year.

The Ibovespa fell nearly 1% to hover below 181,000 on Tuesday as oil prices rebounded and pressured the global economic outlook. Energy supply concerns resurfaced after Iran denied holding US talks to end the Gulf war, contradicting Trump's comments about a potential deal. Also, minutes from the Central Bank of Brazil showed that policymakers reiterated that the increase in oil prices may prevent the higher magnitude of rate cuts that were expected for this year. Major banks tumbled, Itaú was down 1.4%, and Bradesco nearly 2%. Utilities also fell, with Axia losing near 2% and Sabesp over 1%. In contrast, higher oil prices supported energy stocks, with Petrobras up about 3%.

The Ibovespa index surged 3.2% to close at 181,932 on Monday as a sudden shift toward diplomacy in the Middle East sparked a massive rotation back into Brazilian risk assets. This rally followed President Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause on planned military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, a pivot that immediately deflated the geopolitical risk premium. While previous sessions were dominated by stagflationary fears, the relief rally helped lower bond yields and supported credit-sensitive sectors across the board. Major banks traded significantly higher, with Banco Bradesco and Banco do Brasil climbing over 3.7%. Other heavyweights also saw aggressive gains, including Embraer jumping 6.6% and Localiza Rent surging 9.5% as domestic sentiment improved. Petrobras managed a marginal 0.7% gain as the broader market optimism offset the collapse in global crude prices.