Brazil Inflation Edges Above Forecasts

Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.58% in September 2026 from 4.22% in August, slightly above forecasts of 4.50%. Price growth accelerated for food and beverages (4.66% vs. 3.53%), household articles (2.08% vs. 1.40%), clothing (3.34% vs. 3.25%), transport (3.94% vs. 3.04%) and communication (2.79% vs. 1.96%). Transport costs were partly driven by vehicle fuel inflation, which rose to 4.97% from 4.41% as international oil prices surged amid Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, price growth moderated for housing (4.22% vs. 4.90%), health and personal care (5.75% vs. 5.84%), personal expenses (5.90% vs. 6.16%) and education (5.95% vs. 5.98%). Month over month, consumer prices rose 0.82%, rebounding from a 0.32% decline in August. Inflation reached 3.95% year to date.

Brazil’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.22% in August 2026 from 4.44% in July, slightly below forecasts of 4.27% and moving further within the central bank’s target range of 1.50%-4.50%. Price growth slowed for housing (4.90% vs. 5.93%), clothing (3.25% vs. 3.87%), transport (3.04% vs. 3.64%), health and personal care (5.84% vs. 6.16%), and education (5.98% vs. 6.27%). The moderation in transport costs was partly driven by easing fuels and energy inflation, which fell to 4.60% from 7.60%. Although oil prices surged internationally amid tensions in the Middle East, Petrobras refrained from immediately passing on the external volatility to its refineries, resulting in a cumulative gap relative to international market prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined 0.32%, following a marginal 0.1% increase in July. CPI has risen 3.11% year to date.

Brazil's annual inflation rate eased to 4.44% in July 2026 from 4.64% in June, in line with forecasts and moving back within the central bank's target range of 1.50%-4.50%. Price growth slowed for food and beverages (3.40% vs. 3.82% in June), clothing (3.87% vs. 3.99%), transport (3.64% vs. 3.95%), health and personal care (6.16% vs. 6.21%), personal expenses (5.22% vs. 5.79%), and education (6.27% vs. 6.33%). The moderation in transport costs was partly driven by slower fuel inflation, which eased to 4.43% from 5.28%, as global oil prices retreated from recent highs amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and the normalization of Middle Eastern supply. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1%, following a 0.2% increase in June, while inflation reached 3.44% year to date.