Brazil Inflation Returns to Central Bank’s Target Range

Brazil’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.22% in August 2026 from 4.44% in July, slightly below forecasts of 4.27% and moving further within the central bank’s target range of 1.50%-4.50%. Price growth slowed for housing (4.90% vs. 5.93%), clothing (3.25% vs. 3.87%), transport (3.04% vs. 3.64%), health and personal care (5.84% vs. 6.16%), and education (5.98% vs. 6.27%). The moderation in transport costs was partly driven by easing fuels and energy inflation, which fell to 4.60% from 7.60%. Although oil prices surged internationally amid tensions in the Middle East, Petrobras refrained from immediately passing on the external volatility to its refineries, resulting in a cumulative gap relative to international market prices. On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined 0.32%, following a marginal 0.1% increase in July. CPI has risen 3.11% year to date.

Brazil's annual inflation rate eased to 4.44% in July 2026 from 4.64% in June, in line with forecasts and moving back within the central bank's target range of 1.50%-4.50%. Price growth slowed for food and beverages (3.40% vs. 3.82% in June), clothing (3.87% vs. 3.99%), transport (3.64% vs. 3.95%), health and personal care (6.16% vs. 6.21%), personal expenses (5.22% vs. 5.79%), and education (6.27% vs. 6.33%). The moderation in transport costs was partly driven by slower fuel inflation, which eased to 4.43% from 5.28%, as global oil prices retreated from recent highs amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and the normalization of Middle Eastern supply. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1%, following a 0.2% increase in June, while inflation reached 3.44% year to date.

Brazil's annual inflation rate eased to 4.64% in June 2026 from 4.72% in May, below market expectations of 4.80%. Price growth slowed for food and beverages (3.82% vs. 3.87%), housing (5.85% vs. 6.22%), clothing (3.99% vs. 4.60%), transport (3.95% vs. 4.05%), and education (6.33% vs. 6.36%). Meanwhile, inflation accelerated for household articles (0.69% vs. 0.54%), health and personal care (6.21% vs. 6.04%), personal expenses (5.79% vs. 5.77%), and communication (1.83% vs. 1.75%). Energy and fuel inflation remained elevated at 7.71%, reflecting supply disruptions linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the US-Iran conflict, although it eased from 8.90% in May as geopolitical tensions showed signs of moderating. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.16%, following a 0.58% increase in May.