Brazilian Real Strengthens on Election Runoff Polls

2026-10-09 19:13 By Isabela Couto 1 min. read

The Brazilian real strengthened to below 5.00 per US dollar in October following the release of the first polls for the presidential runoff.

A Datafolha poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 49% of voting intentions against 45% for President Lula, a statistical tie at the limit of the two-percentage-point margin of error.

An Atlas/Bloomberg poll put Flávio at 51.1%, compared with 45.7% for Lula, ending the statistical tie in the previous survey’s runoff scenario.

Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity, and his economic team is considering spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP.

Flávio finished ahead of Lula in the first round, defying most polls and sending the real to a 17-month high on October 5th.

Meanwhile, the BCB held a regular foreign-exchange swap rollover auction on the 9th.

Such interventions are used to help reduce exchange-rate volatility during periods of political and economic uncertainty.



News Stream
Brazilian Real Strengthens on Election Runoff Polls
The Brazilian real strengthened to below 5.00 per US dollar in October following the release of the first polls for the presidential runoff. A Datafolha poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 49% of voting intentions against 45% for President Lula, a statistical tie at the limit of the two-percentage-point margin of error. An Atlas/Bloomberg poll put Flávio at 51.1%, compared with 45.7% for Lula, ending the statistical tie in the previous survey’s runoff scenario. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity, and his economic team is considering spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP. Flávio finished ahead of Lula in the first round, defying most polls and sending the real to a 17-month high on October 5th. Meanwhile, the BCB held a regular foreign-exchange swap rollover auction on the 9th. Such interventions are used to help reduce exchange-rate volatility during periods of political and economic uncertainty.
2026-10-09
Brazilian Real Surges After Bolsonaro Leads First Round
The Brazilian real strengthened sharply to below 5.00 per USD on Monday, reaching a 17-month high after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Lula in the first round of the presidential election, defying most polls. Senator Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for President Lula. Bolsonaro is viewed by markets as more fiscally restrictive, amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. The two-point margin gave the senator an initial advantage heading into the runoff. Bolsonaro outperformed the average of polls tracked by Goldman Sachs by more than four percentage points. However, the election remains unresolved, and the narrow first-round margin means volatility could remain elevated as the campaign enters its final weeks. The runoff, scheduled for October 25th, will still depend on factors including debate performances, campaign strategies, voter mobilization and the candidates’ ability to attract supporters of eliminated candidates.
2026-10-05
Brazilian Real Set to Rally on Election Results
The Brazilian real is expected to strengthen on Monday after fluctuating near a six-month low last week, as Flávio Bolsonaro’s delivered stronger-than-expected performance in the first round of the presidential election. Bolsonaro secured 47.03% of valid votes, ahead of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45.16%, setting up a runoff on October 25. The result is likely to be viewed positively by investors who see Bolsonaro as more inclined to address Brazil’s fiscal pressures and reduce government spending. Markets may therefore price in a greater probability of fiscal adjustment and potentially lower borrowing costs over time. However, the election remains unresolved, and the narrow first-round margin means volatility could remain elevated as the campaign enters its final weeks.
2026-10-05