Brazilian Real Surges After Bolsonaro Leads First Round

2026-10-05 12:48 By Isabela Couto 1 min. read

The Brazilian real strengthened sharply to below 5.00 per USD on Monday, reaching a 17-month high after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Lula in the first round of the presidential election, defying most polls.

Senator Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for President Lula.

Bolsonaro is viewed by markets as more fiscally restrictive, amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity.

The two-point margin gave the senator an initial advantage heading into the runoff.

Bolsonaro outperformed the average of polls tracked by Goldman Sachs by more than four percentage points.

However, the election remains unresolved, and the narrow first-round margin means volatility could remain elevated as the campaign enters its final weeks.

The runoff, scheduled for October 25th, will still depend on factors including debate performances, campaign strategies, voter mobilization and the candidates’ ability to attract supporters of eliminated candidates.



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Brazilian Real Surges After Bolsonaro Leads First Round
The Brazilian real strengthened sharply to below 5.00 per USD on Monday, reaching a 17-month high after Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Lula in the first round of the presidential election, defying most polls. Senator Bolsonaro received 47.03% of valid votes, compared with 45.16% for President Lula. Bolsonaro is viewed by markets as more fiscally restrictive, amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. The two-point margin gave the senator an initial advantage heading into the runoff. Bolsonaro outperformed the average of polls tracked by Goldman Sachs by more than four percentage points. However, the election remains unresolved, and the narrow first-round margin means volatility could remain elevated as the campaign enters its final weeks. The runoff, scheduled for October 25th, will still depend on factors including debate performances, campaign strategies, voter mobilization and the candidates’ ability to attract supporters of eliminated candidates.
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