South Africa Inflation Rises Less Than Forecast

The annual inflation rate rose for the second month to 4.5% in September 2026 from 4.4% in August, but below the expected 4.7%. Still, the headline inflation remained above the SARB’s 3% target and the upper bound of its 2%–4% tolerance band. The acceleration was largely driven by rising transport prices, which climbed further by 10.8%, compared to 8.8% in August, largely reflecting a sharper increase in fuel prices (27.9% vs 20%). Diesel prices jumped 46.0%, while petrol prices rose 25.0%, following domestic price hikes. Food inflation also rose slightly faster to 1.2% from 1.1% in August. The core inflation, which excludes prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy, edged down to 4.0% in September from 4.1% in August. On a monthly basis, the CPI went up by 0.4%, after being flat in the previous month.

The annual inflation rate inched up to 4.4% in August 2026 from 4.3% in July, but undershooting the expected 4.5%. Still, inflation remains well above the SARB's goal of 3%. Transportation remained the main source of upward pressure, with prices rising 8.8% year-on-year, after an 8.9% advance in July. Petrol prices fell 2.0% between July and August, while diesel prices rose 3.1%. Housing and utilities inflation remained elevated at 5.2%, unchanged from July, with electricity, gas and other fuels inflation accelerating to 8.3% from 7.4%. Food inflation also picked up, rising to 1.1% from 0.9%, marking its first increase since November 2025. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, eased to 4.1% from a two-year high of 4.2% in July and slightly below the expected 4.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI was flat in August, after increasing by 0.2% in the month before.

South Africa's annual inflation rate eased to 4.3% in July 2026 from a two-year high of 5% in the prior month and below analysts' estimates of 4.5%. This marked the first slowdown in five months, helped by softer transportation costs (8.9% vs 12.7% in June). Fuel prices slowed to 20.6% from 34.3%, reflecting lower South African petrol prices as crude oil prices pulled back from their early-Middle East-conflict highs. The easing was further supported by food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.9% vs 1.6%), driven by lower cereal prices (-2% vs -1.5%) and slower meat inflation (1.5% vs 5.1%). Price growth also moderated for housing and utilities (5.2% vs 5.5%), on smaller municipal tariff increases. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, inched up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June, reaching the highest since July 2024. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in July, down from a 0.7% increase in the month before.