South Africa Inflation Rate Below Forecasts at 4.4%

The annual inflation rate inched up to 4.4% in August 2026 from 4.3% in July, but undershooting the expected 4.5%. Still, inflation remains well above the SARB's goal of 3%. Transportation remained the main source of upward pressure, with prices rising 8.8% year-on-year, after an 8.9% advance in July. Petrol prices fell 2.0% between July and August, while diesel prices rose 3.1%. Housing and utilities inflation remained elevated at 5.2%, unchanged from July, with electricity, gas and other fuels inflation accelerating to 8.3% from 7.4%. Food inflation also picked up, rising to 1.1% from 0.9%, marking its first increase since November 2025. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, eased to 4.1% from a two-year high of 4.2% in July and slightly below the expected 4.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI was flat in August, after increasing by 0.2% in the month before.

South Africa's annual inflation rate eased to 4.3% in July 2026 from a two-year high of 5% in the prior month and below analysts' estimates of 4.5%. This marked the first slowdown in five months, helped by softer transportation costs (8.9% vs 12.7% in June). Fuel prices slowed to 20.6% from 34.3%, reflecting lower South African petrol prices as crude oil prices pulled back from their early-Middle East-conflict highs. The easing was further supported by food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.9% vs 1.6%), driven by lower cereal prices (-2% vs -1.5%) and slower meat inflation (1.5% vs 5.1%). Price growth also moderated for housing and utilities (5.2% vs 5.5%), on smaller municipal tariff increases. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel, and energy, inched up to 4.2% from 4.1% in June, reaching the highest since July 2024. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in July, down from a 0.7% increase in the month before.

South Africa's annual inflation rate accelerated for a fourth consecutive month to 5% in June 2026 from 4.5% in May and above expectations of 4.7%. This marked the highest inflation rate since June 2024, driven primarily by a sharp increase in transportation costs (12.7%), largely reflecting a 34.3% surge in fuel prices amid elevated global energy prices linked to the conflict with Iran. Additional upward pressure came from housing and utilities (5.5%), led by higher prices for electricity, gas and other fuels (3.9%) and water supply (6.9%). Inflation also remained elevated for insurance and financial services (5.9%), restaurants and accommodation services (5.1%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.6%), while food inflation edged up to 1.6%. Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 4.1%, its highest level since September 2024, pointing to broader underlying price pressures. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased 0.7% in June.