South Africa Business Sentiment Hits Near 5-Year High

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa rose to 47 in Q1 2026, the highest since Q2 2021, from 44 in the previous quarter. The survey revealed that sentiment improved amid a stable government, supportive interest rate environment and favorable exchange rate movements, despite geopolitical concerns. "A sustained improvement in confidence will ultimately depend on stronger demand, continued policy credibility and progress on structural reforms. For now, sentiment is improving but translating that into durable growth remains the key test for 2026," said Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist at RMB.

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa rose to 44 in Q4 2025 from a one-year low of 39 in the previous quarter, marking the first improvement after two consecutive declines. The index is now three points above its long-term average. Increases were seen across five sectors. Building contractors were the only sector to see a drop in confidence, falling seven points to 39, yet activity improved, indicating the sector’s ongoing recovery. "Business confidence will need steady policy progress and consistent demand to take root and grow," RMB stressed in a statement.

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa eased further to 39 in Q3 2025, the lowest since Q3 2024, from 40 in the prior period. This is three points below the long-term average level of 42, mainly reflecting concerns over the impact of US tariffs. On 7 August, US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs after a three-month pause, leaving South African businesses facing the reality of an unfavorable trade deal. “Front-loading, cancellations and production holidays in the automotive sector, for example, also affected activity over the period,” said Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist at RMB. Among all sectors, manufacturing recorded the lowest sentiment, with its gauge falling 10 points to 23 amid ongoing global trade uncertainty. The retailers index dropped 10 points to 32, and the wholesalers gauge declined 12 points to 38, while two sectors – building contractors and new vehicle dealers – saw their confidence improve from weaker second-quarter readings.