South Africa Business Sentiment Hits Near 5-Year High

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa fell by 8 points to 39 in Q2 2026, the lowest since Q3 2025, reversing the prior two quarters of improvement and moving just below its long-term average of 40. This is the lowest level since Q3 2025, as businesses faced renewed pressure from the Middle East war. “The sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, lifted local fuel costs and significantly altered interest-rate expectations. Businesses have had to adjust quickly to a less supportive outlook, which weighed on sentiment across most sectors, " noted Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist at RMB. Confidence deteriorated across the board, with four of the five sectors reporting weaker sentiment, led by new vehicle dealers (-18 points to 49) and wholesalers (-10 points to 40). Manufacturing was the only sector to record an improvement, albeit marginal (+1 point to 31), despite ongoing pressure from weak demand and higher costs.

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa rose to 47 in Q1 2026, the highest since Q2 2021, from 44 in the previous quarter. The survey revealed that sentiment improved amid a stable government, supportive interest rate environment and favorable exchange rate movements, despite geopolitical concerns. "A sustained improvement in confidence will ultimately depend on stronger demand, continued policy credibility and progress on structural reforms. For now, sentiment is improving but translating that into durable growth remains the key test for 2026," said Isaah Mhlanga, chief economist at RMB.

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa rose to 44 in Q4 2025 from a one-year low of 39 in the previous quarter, marking the first improvement after two consecutive declines. The index is now three points above its long-term average. Increases were seen across five sectors. Building contractors were the only sector to see a drop in confidence, falling seven points to 39, yet activity improved, indicating the sector’s ongoing recovery. "Business confidence will need steady policy progress and consistent demand to take root and grow," RMB stressed in a statement.