South Africa Business Sentiment Improves in Q4

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa rose to 44 in Q4 2025 from a one-year low of 39 in the previous quarter, marking the first improvement after two consecutive declines. The index is now three points above its long-term average. Increases were seen across five sectors. Building contractors were the only sector to see a drop in confidence, falling seven points to 39, yet activity improved, indicating the sector’s ongoing recovery. "Business confidence will need steady policy progress and consistent demand to take root and grow," RMB stressed in a statement.

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa eased further to 39 in Q3 2025, the lowest since Q3 2024, from 40 in the prior period. This is three points below the long-term average level of 42, mainly reflecting concerns over the impact of US tariffs. On 7 August, US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs after a three-month pause, leaving South African businesses facing the reality of an unfavorable trade deal. “Front-loading, cancellations and production holidays in the automotive sector, for example, also affected activity over the period,” said Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist at RMB. Among all sectors, manufacturing recorded the lowest sentiment, with its gauge falling 10 points to 23 amid ongoing global trade uncertainty. The retailers index dropped 10 points to 32, and the wholesalers gauge declined 12 points to 38, while two sectors – building contractors and new vehicle dealers – saw their confidence improve from weaker second-quarter readings.

The RMB/BER business confidence index in South Africa fell to 40 in Q2 2025, from a near three-year high of 45 recorded in both Q1 and Q4 2024, as sentiment weakened amid global trade uncertainties and domestic logistical hurdles. RMB noted that all sectors, including retail, new vehicle dealers, building contractors, and manufacturing, reported declines, with wholesale trade being the only segment to register improved confidence. "The majority of the respondents are thus pessimistic about trading conditions. While remaining above the average of 2023 and 2024, confidence is now a touch below the long-term average level," RMB said.