New Zealand Terms of Trade Falls More Than Expected

New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade dropped 9.0% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to June 2026, following a downwardly revised 1.9% fall in the prior quarter and coming in worse than expectations of a 2.2% decline. The deterioration reflected higher relative export prices, with export prices rising 3.5% compared with a 13.8% jump in import prices. In value terms, export values rose 6.7% to $21.2 billion as export volumes increased 6.4%, while import values grew 7.1% to $22.8 billion despite import volumes falling 2.1%.

New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade fell 2.0% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March 2026, reversing a 3.7% rise in the prior quarter and coming in worse than expectations of a 1.2% decline. The deterioration reflected weaker relative export prices, with export prices falling 2.7% compared with a 0.7% drop in import prices. In value terms, export values for goods grew 0.4% to $19.5 billion as export volumes rose 2.7%, while import values increased 2.7% to $21.1 billion as import volumes advanced 2.2%. The weaker terms of trade indicate a decline in purchasing power for New Zealand exporters and importers despite rising export and import volumes.

New Zealand’s merchandise terms of trade rose 3.7% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December 2025, reversing the prior quarter’s 2.1% deterioration and way above expectations of a 0.7% drop. The improvement reflected stronger relative export prices, which rose 5.3%, against a 1.5% increase in import prices. In value terms, export values for goods rose 1.6% to $19.4 billion as export volumes fell 3.2%, while import values rose 5.3% to $20.5 billion as import volumes rose 5.8%. The stronger terms of trade indicate increased purchasing power for New Zealand exporters despite falling export volumes.