Germany 10Y Bond Yield Hits 9-week High

The yield on the German 10-year Bund rose to 3.20% on Thursday, the highest in over fifteen years, after the European Central Bank signaled that it remained alert against mounting pro-inflationary risks. The ECB held its key rates unchanged, as largely expected, and reiterated that soaring energy prices due to the war in the Middle East are yet to be fully transmitted to consumer prices in the Eurozone. Higher inflation had already made the ECB deliver a rate hike in June. Further, natural gas benchmarks surged back to three-year highs after blockades against tankers leaving the Red Sea and Persian Gulf threatened global LNG supply, worsening the inflationary outlook. Money markets continue to price in at least two additional rate hikes by the end of the year, with September seen as the most likely timing for the next move. Deficit spending in Germany, France, and Italy also raised yields across the curve, with higher Bund supply maintaining country spreads relatively stable.

Germany's 10-year Bund yield climbed toward 3.2% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since May 2011, as investors awaited the European Central Bank's policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while signaling that a rate hike in September remains a possibility. The central bank delivered its first rate increase in three years in June and indicated that future policy moves would remain data-dependent. Since then, softer readings on inflation, wage growth, economic activity, and inflation expectations have eased pressure for an immediate follow-up move. However, surging oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East have reignited inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain a cautious stance. Money markets continue to price in at least two additional rate hikes by the end of the year, with September seen as the most likely timing for the next move.

Germany 10Y Bond Yield rose above 3.2, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity.