Bund Yields at Highest Since October 2023

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below 3.25%, its lowest level since late August, and tracking US Treasury yields as investors sought safety following a sharp sell-off in technology stocks. The rotation out of AI and technology stocks continued today, amid concerns that the Democrats’ victory could bring tighter regulation of US data centres and AI. Meanwhile, their House takeover reduced the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under Trump, easing concerns over US government borrowing. However, rising eurozone inflation and increasingly hawkish rhetoric from ECB policymakers continued to reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy. Annual eurozone inflation climbed to a fresh 3-year high of 4% in October, largely driven by surging energy prices. Despite leaving interest rates unchanged last week, ECB officials signaled that further hikes may be necessary to contain inflationary pressures and prevent them from feeding through into wages.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield fell below 3.3%, touching its lowest level since late August and tracking a decline in US Treasury yields following an unexpected Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections. The Democrats’ takeover of the House and Senat is seen as reducing the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration, easing concerns about government borrowing. However, the decline in German yields was more modest than across other European bond markets, as new data pointed to persistent inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that further rate increases may be necessary. Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 4% in October, its highest since September 2023 and well above the ECB’s 2% target, largely driven by surging energy prices. Despite last week’s decision to leave rates unchanged, officials signalled that further increases may be needed to contain inflation and prevent price pressures from spilling over into wages.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield was little changed just above 3.3% as investors assessed accelerating eurozone inflation, while US Treasury gains following the unexpected Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections provided some support to global bond markets. Eurozone annual inflation accelerated to 4.0% in October, its highest level since September 2023 and well above the ECB’s 2% target, largely driven by a surge in energy prices. Meanwhile, increasingly hawkish rhetoric from European Central Bank policymakers reinforced expectations of tighter monetary policy. Despite last week’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, officials signaled that further rate increases may be necessary to contain inflation and prevent price pressures from spilling over into wages. In the US, Treasury yields declined as a Democratic takeover of the House is seen reducing the likelihood of further deficit-expanding legislation under the Trump administration, easing concerns over government borrowing.