Bund Yields Steady as Markets Eye Key Data and Central Bank Moves

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield stabilized at 2.7% at the end of July as investors prepared for a busy week of key economic data releases.

Attention is focused on German July inflation and unemployment figures, as well as second-quarter GDP numbers, which could influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook.

Expectations for an ECB rate cut shifted this week following the announcement of the US-EU trade deal.

Markets have pushed back the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut to March 2026, now pricing in a 90% chance by then.

The probability of a cut by December has fallen below 70%.

Meanwhile, market participants are also watching the Federal Reserve’s policy decision scheduled for Wednesday, where rates are widely expected to remain unchanged ahead of President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline.

Investors will additionally be monitoring the US jobs report due on Friday.