Friday December 08 2017
German Trade Narrows Slightly in October
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German trade surplus fell slightly to EUR 18.9 billion in October 2017 from EUR 19.2 billion in the same month a year earlier, as exports rose by 6.8 percent year-on-year to EUR 108.0 billion while imports went up by 8.3 percent to EUR 89.1 billion.

In October, exports to the EU grew by 8.7 percent to EUR 64.5 billion, of which Euro area countries (8.6 percent to EUR 40.4 billion) and other European countries (9.1 percent to EUR 24.1 billion). Also, sales to countries outside the EU went up by 4.1 percent to EUR 43.5 billion.

Imports from the EU rose 10.1 percent to EUR 59.6 billion, of which Euro area countries (9.3 percent to EUR 39.8 billion) and other European countries (11.9 percent to EUR 19.8 billion). In addition, inbound shipments from countries outside the EU increased by 4.8 percent to EUR 29.4 billion.

Considering January to October 2017, the trade surplus was registered at EUR 203.2.8 billion, down from EUR 208.6 billion in the same period of 2016.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 19.9 billion, following a marginally revised EUR 21.9 billion in September and below estimates of a surplus of EUR 21.8 billion. 




Thursday November 30 2017
German Jobless Rate Steady at 37-Year Low
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment rate stood at 3.6 percent in October 2017, the same as in the prior two months. The jobless rate remained at its lowest level since October 1980.

Compared with the previous month, the number of unemployed persons fell 0.6 percent to 1.55 million from 1.56 million, while employment edged up 0.1 percent to 41.60 million people from 41.56 million.

Compared with October 2016, unemployment dropped 9.9 percent from 1.72 million people while employment rose 0.9 percent from 41.23 million people.

Youth unemployment rate came in at 6.6 percent, unchanged from the previous month and compared with 6.9 percent a year earlier. 

Separate data from the Labour Office showed the number of unemployed persons fell by 18 thousand to 2.476 million in November 2017. The adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.6 percent, the lowest level since German reunification in 1990.




Wednesday November 29 2017
German November Inflation Rate Stronger than Expected
Destatis l Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

German consumer prices are expected to increase by 1.8 percent year-on-year in November 2017, following a 1.6 percent gain in the previous month and beating market consensus of 1.7 percent. Cost of energy and services rose at a faster pace while food inflation slowed.

Year-on-year, prices of services are expected to grow by 1.5 percent, following a 1.2 percent gain in the previous month, with cost of rents advancing at a faster 1.7 percent (1.6 percent in October). Also, prices of goods are expected to advance by 2.1 percent, compared to a 1.9 percent gain in the previous month: cost of energy is set to increase by 3.7 percent from the previous year after an increase of 1.2 percent in October; while inflation food is expected to ease to 3.2 percent from 4.3 percent in the previous month. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.3 percent after showing no growth in October and matching market expectations.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.8 percent from the previous year and by 0.3 percent from the previous month.




Thursday November 23 2017
German Q3 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.8%
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.8 percent on quarter in the September quarter of 2017, following a 0.6 percent growth in the previous period and matching the preliminary estimate. It marked the 13th straight quarter of growth, mainly supported by foreign trade and investment while household consumption and government spending were rather stable.

Positive contribution to GDP mainly came from net trade (0.4 percetage points) and fixed investment (0.1 percentage points). Also, changed in inventories added 0.4 percentage points to growth Meantime, household consumption subtracted 0.1 percentage points from growth while government spending gave no contribution to growth.

Quarter-on-quarter, exports rose 1.7 percent, faster than a 1.0 percent in the June quarter while imports went up at a slower 0.9 percent (from 2.4 percent).

Gross fixed capital formation went up 0.4 percent, following a 1.5 percent in the June quarter, supported by investment in machinery and equipment (1.5 percent from 3.3 percent) and that in other products (0.6 percent from 0.9 percent). Meantime, construction investment cotracted by 0.4 percent, after a 0.5 percent rise in Q2 

Private consumption declined by 0.1 percent, compared to a 0.9 percent increase in the preceding quarter. 

Government spending was flat, after a 0.2 percent rise in Q2.

Year-on-year, the GDP advanced 2.8 percent, following an upwardly revised  2.3 percent growth in the previous three months. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the economy grew by 2.3 percent year-on-year (from 1.0 percent in Q2), as private consumption (2.1 percent from 2.2 percent) and government spending (0.9 percent from 1.1 percent) increased further. In addition, gross  fixed capital formation went up  at a faster 3.6 percent (from 2.1 percent in the June quarter), as investment growth accelerated for: machinery and equipment (4.6 percent from 1.5 percent) and construction (3.2 percent from 2.0 percent). Meanwhile, investment in other products grew by 3.2 percent (from 3.4 percent). Net external demand contributed positively to the GDP, as exports went up 4.8 percent while imports advanced at a faster 5.5 percent.





Tuesday November 14 2017
German Inflation Rate Confirmed at 4-Month Low of 1.6%
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German consumer prices rose by 1.6 percent year-on-year in October 2017, following a 1.8 percent rise in the prior two months and matching the preliminary estimate. It was the lowest inflation rate since June, as cost rose less than in a month earlier for energy and services.

Year-on-year, cost of services went up 1.2 percent from a year ago, after a 1.6 percent in September. Prices rose mainly for: Net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.6 percent); maintenance and repair of vehicles (3.3 percent); catering services (2.2 percent) and in-patient health services (3.5 percent). However, consumers paid less for services of social facilities (-7.6 percent); package holidays (-1.0 percent) and for telecommunication services (-0.7 percent).

Prices of goods rose 1.9 percent, slower than a 2.2 percent rise in the preceding month, as prices of both energy and food increased less than in a month earlier. Prices also increased for newspapers and periodicals (5.2 percent); tobacco products (4.6 percent) and pharmaceuticals products (2.6 percent).

Energy prices were up 1.2 percent, following a 2.7 percent rise in a month earlier. Prices increased for: heating oil (3.8 percent); motor fuels (1.2 percent); and electricity (1.9 percent). In contrast, gas prices were down by 1.7 percent. 

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose 3.8 percent, following a 3.2 percent increase in the prior month. Prices went up for: edible fats and oils (27.9 percent), in particular butter (54.0 percent); dairy products (15.2 percent); fish and fish products (3.0 percent); meat and meat products (2.6 percent) and fruits (4.1 percent). Only the prices of confectionery were down (-0.2 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat, following a 0.1 percent gain in September and in line with the flash estimate. Prices fell for: package holidays (-7.1 percent); energy prices (-0.1 percent) and motor fuels (-0.8 percent). On the other hand, prices increased markedly for heating oils (2.2 percent). Also, food prices increased by 0.8 percent, especially for: vegetables (2.9 percent) and fruit (2.4 percent, including apples: 2.3 percent). Prices increased again for edible oils and fats (1.7 percent, including butter: 2.8 percnt) and dairy products (0.9 percent, including sliced cheese:3.6 percent; UHT milk: 1.0% percent). In contrast, prices were slightly down for confectionery (–0.7 percent) and fish and fish products (–0.2 percent).

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 1.5 percent from the previous year, compared to a 1.8 percent rise in a month earlier and matching the preliminary estimate. Compared to a month earlier, the index fell 0.1 percent.


Tuesday November 14 2017
German Q3 GDP Growth Stronger than Estimated
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.8 percent on quarter in the September quarter of 2017, following a 0.6 percent growth in the previous period and beating market expectations of a 0.6 percent expansion, the preliminary estimate showed. Positive contributions mainly came from fixed investment and net trade while household consumption and government spending were stable.

The July-September expansion marked a 13th consecutive quarter of growth.

Compared to the June quarter, the balance of exports and imports had a positive effect on the GDP. In addition, an increase was seen for gross fixed capital formation, especially in machinery and equipment. Meantime, final consumption expenditure of both households remained rather stable at the previous quarter's level.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded a calendar-adjusted 2.8 percent, following an upwardly revised 2.3 percent growth in the previous period. It was the strongest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2014. Meantime, unadjusted data showed the economy advanced 2.3 percent on the year, much faster than a 1.0 percent expansion in the previous period.


Thursday November 09 2017
German Trade Surplus Widens in September
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German trade surplus widened to EUR 24.1 billion in September 2017 from EUR 23.7 billion in the same month a year earlier, as exports rose by 4.6 percent year-on-year to EUR 110.4 billion and imports increased by 5.5 percent to EUR 86.3 billion.

In September, exports to the EU grew by 3.3 percent to EUR 65.0 billion, of which Euro area countries (4.2 percent to EUR 40.8 billion) and other European countries (1.7 percent to EUR 24.2 billion). Also, sales to countries outside the EU went up by 6.5 percent to EUR 45.4 billion.

Imports from the EU rose 4.7 percent to EUR 57.6 billion, of which Euro area countries (3.7 percent to EUR 38.1 billion) and other European countries (6.8 percent to EUR 19.5 billion). In addition, inbound shipments from countries outside the EU increased by 7.1 percent to EUR 28.7 billion.

Considering January to September 2017, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 184.8 billion from EUR 189.8 billion in the same period of 2016.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus increased to EUR 21.8 billion from a marginally revised EUR 21.3 billion in August, beating market expectations of EUR 21.1 billion. Exports declined by 0.4 percent, following a downwardly revised 2.0 percent rise in a month earlier. Imports fell unexpectedly by 1.0 percent, compared to a downwardly revised 0.8 percent growth in August.



Monday October 30 2017
German Inflation Rate Slows to 4-Month Low in October
Destatis l Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

German consumer prices are expected to increase by 1.6 percent year-on-year in October 2017, easing from a 1.8 percent gain in the previous month and missing market consensus of 1.7 percent. It was the lowest inflation since June, as cost of energy and services rose at a softer pace.

Year-on-year, prices of services are expected to grow by 1.2 percent, easing from a 1.6 percent gain in the previous month, with cost of rents advancing at a slower 1.6 percent (1.7 percent in September). Meanwhile, prices of goods are expected to advance by 1.9 percent, compared to a 2.2 percent gain in the previous month: Cost of energy is expected to increase by 1.2 percent from the previous year after an increase of 2.7 percent in September while food prices are expected to increase at a faster 4.3 percent, following a 3.6 percent gain in the previous month. 

Compared with September 2017, consumer prices are expected to remain unchanged, following a 0.1 percent gain in September and missing market expectations of 0.1 percent.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.5 percent from the previous year, and to fall by 0.1 percent from the previous month.


Monday October 30 2017
German Jobless Rate Holds at 37-Year Low in September
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment rate came in at 3.6 percent in September 2017, unchanged from August's 37-year low. The number of unemployed fell 1.3 percent from the previous month while the number of employed increased by 0.2 percent.

Compared with the previous month, the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.3 percent to 1.54 million from 1.56 million, while employment edged up 0.2 percent to 41.59 million people from 41.52 million.

Compared with September 2016, unemployment dropped 11.5 percent from 1.74 million people while employment rose 1 percent from 41.18 million people.

Youth unemployment rate edged down to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent in the previous month and compared with 6.9 percent a year earlier. 




Friday October 13 2017
German September Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1.8%
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German consumer prices rose by 1.8 percent year-on-year in September 2017, the same pace as in August and in line with the preliminary estimate. Service price inflation was unchanged from the previous month while cost of energy and food rose at a faster pace.

Year-on-year, cost of services went up 1.6 percent from a year ago, the same as in August. Prices rose mainly for: Net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.7 percent); maintenance and repair of vehicles (3.5 percent); and catering services (2.5 percent). However, consumers paid less for services of social facilities (-7.3 percent) and for telecommunication services (-0.7 percent).

Prices of goods rose 2.2 percent, faster than a 2.0 percent rise in August, as prices of both energy and food increased more than in a month earlier. Prices also increased for newspapers and periodicals (5.2 percent) and tobacco products (4.3 percent).

Energy prices were up 2.7 percent, following a 2.3 percent rise in a month earlier. Prices increased for: Mineral oil products (6.2 percent), of which heating oil (12.9 percent) and motor fuels (4.5 percent); and electricity (2.0 percent). In contrast, gas prices were down by 2.5 percent. 

Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices rose 3.2 percent, following a 2.8 percent increase in the prior month. Prices went up for: edible fats and oils (34.2 percent), in particular butter (70.4 percent); dairy products (15.0 percent); fish and fish products (3.4 percent); and meat and meat products (2.6 percent). Only the prices of vegetables were down (-4.4 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.1 percent, also in line with the flash estimate and following a 0.1 percent rise in August. Considerable month-on-month price increases were recorded for clothing (6.2 percent) and footwear (4.3 percent), due to the changeover to the autumn/winter collection. Also, energy prices increased by 1.2 percent, especially for mineral oil products (2.7 percent) and food prices increased 0.6 percent. Due to the end of the summer holidays in September, considerable month-on-month price decreases were recorded for package holidays (-11.6 percent) and air tickets (6.5 percent).

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 1.8 percent from the previous year, the same as in a month earlier and matching the preliminary estimate. Compared to a month earlier, the index rose 0.1 percent.