Tuesday August 14 2018
German July Inflation Rate Confirmed at 2%
Federal Statistical Office | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Germany’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 2 percent in July 2018, slightly below the previous month's 2.1 percent. Food inflation eased while prices of services and energy rose at a faster pace.

Prices of goods rose at a softer 2.4 percent in July, compared with 2.8 percent in the previous month, as food inflation slowed while energy prices rose further. Prices also increased for newspapers and periodicals (4.8 percent), beer (4.0 percent) and tobacco products (3.5 percent). However, prices were down for consumer electronics (-5.5 percent), information processing equipment (-4.2 percent), clothing (-2.0 percent).
 
Cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 2.5 percent, following a 3.2 percent increase in June. Price increases were observed for all categories, especially edible fats and oils (6.4 percent), of which fruit (5.5 percent); dairy products and eggs (4.0 percent), and vegetables (3.1 percent).

Energy prices went up 6.6 percent, after a 6.4 percent rise in June. Prices increased mainly for: heating oil (28.5 percent); motor fuels (12.0 percent); electricity (1.0 percent); and charges for central and district heating (1.5 percent). In contrast, gas prices dropped 1.3 percent.
 
Services inflation picked up to 1.6 percent in July from 1.5 percent in June. Upward pressure came from: package holidays (4.2 percent); net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.6 percent); maintenance and repair of vehicles (3.0 percent); and catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (2.2 percent). Meantime, consumers paid less for air tickets (-6.9 percent).
 
On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.3 percent in July, compared to a 0.1 percent rise in June and in line with earlier estimates. Marked seasonal price increases on the previous month were recorded for air tickets (4.4 percent), package holidays (19.3 percent)  Meantime, energy prices were down 0.1 percent, especially due to heating oil (-0.8 percent) and motor fuels (-0.2 percent). In addition, food prices fell 0.5 percent in July, as prices were down especially for fruit (-2.2 percent) and vegetables (-1.2 percent). Also, month-on-month price decreases were recorded for clothing (-6.9 percent) and footwear (-4.1 percent), sometimes as a result of first discounts given on spring and summer articles.
 
The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 2.1 percent from the previous year, and by 0.4 percent month-on-month.
 
 




Tuesday August 14 2018
German Q2 GDP Growth Stronger than Expected
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.5 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2018, following an upwardly revised 0.4 percent expansion in the previous period and beating market consensus of 0.3 percent, a preliminary estimate showed.

Positive contributions to the GDP growth came from domestic demand, mainly boosted by gains in household consumption and government spending. Also, there was a slight increase in fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment, in construction and in other fixed assets. By contrast, net trade contributed negatively to growth as imports rose more than exports.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded a calendar-adjusted 2 percent in the second quarter, following a  2.2 percent growth in the previous three-month period and slightly below expectations of 2.1 percent. On an unadjusted basis, the GDP rose by 2.3 percent, much stronger than an upwardly revised 1.4 percent advance in the March quarter.




Tuesday August 07 2018
German Trade Surplus Narrows in June
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German trade surplus fell slightly to EUR 21.8 billion in June 2018 from EUR 22.1 billion in the same month a year earlier, as imports jumped 10.2 percent to an all-time high while exports rose at a softer 7.8 percent.

Imports increased by 10.2 percent from a year earlier to a record high of EUR 93.7 billion in June, as purchases from the EU went up 10.1 percent to EUR 53.8 billion, of which Euro area countries (10.1 percent to EUR 35.0 billion) and other European countries (10.1 percent to EUR 18.8 billion). In addition, inbound shipments from countries outside the EU jumped by 10.3 percent to EUR 40.0 billion.

Exports rose at a slower 7.8 percent to EUR 115.5 billion, as sales to the EU grew by 5.9 percent to EUR 67.7 billion, of which Euro area countries (7.6 percent to EUR 43.0 billion) and other European countries (3.0 percent to EUR 24.7 billion). Exports to countries outside the EU increased by 10.5 percent to EUR 47.9 billion. 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus decreased to EUR 19.3 billion in June from an upwardly revised EUR 20.4 billion in May and slightly below market expectations of EUR 20.3 billion. Exports were unchanged in June, following a 1.7 percent advance in May and beating forecasts of a 0.4 percent drop. Imports surged 1.2 percent, following a 0.7 percent growth in May and compared with market consensus of a 0.2 percent gain.

In the first half of the year, the trade surplus was EUR 121.5 billion, little-changed from EUR 121.3 billion in the same period of 2017.





Tuesday July 31 2018
German Jobless Rate Falls to Near 38-Year Low
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment rate edged down to 3.4 percent in June 2018 from an upwardly revised 3.5 percent in the previous month. It was the lowest jobless rate since July 1980.

The number of unemployed people was unchanged at 1.49 million, while employment rose slightly to 41.69 million in June from 41.67 million in the previous month.

Compared with June 2017, unemployment dropped by 8 percent from 1.62 million people and employment rose by 0.4 percent from 41.51 million.

Youth unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.2 percent in July, the lowest since April 1992. 

Separate data from the Labour Office showed the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed in Germany fell by 6 thousand from the previous month to 2.338 million in July 2018, compared with market consensus of a 10 thousand drop. The unemployment rate came in at 5.2 percent in July, unchanged from the previous month and the lowest since German reunification in 1990.




Monday July 30 2018
German July Inflation Rate Weaker than Expected
Destatis | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's annual inflation rate is expected to ease further to 2 percent in July 2018 from the previous month's 2.1 percent and slightly below market expectations of 2.1 percent. Food inflation is likely to slow while prices of services and energy are set to rise at a faster pace.

Prices of goods are expected to advance by 2.4 percent in July, compared with 2.8 percent in June, as food inflation is set to slow to 2.6 percent from 3.4 percent. Energy cost is likely to rise at a slightly faster pace (6.6 percent vs 6.4 percent). Meanwhile, services inflation is likely to pick up to 1.6 percent in July from 1.5 percent in the previous month, with cost of rents advancing by 1.6 percent, the same pace as in June.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to rise 0.3 percent in July, after growing 0.1 percent in June and also below market consensus of 0.4 percent.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 2.1 percent from the previous year; and by 0.4 percent from the previous month.


Thursday July 12 2018
German June Inflation Rate Confirmed at 2.1%
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German consumer price inflation rate eased to 2.1 percent year-on-year in June of 2018 from a 15-month high of 2.2 percent in the previous month and matching the preliminary estimate. Services inflation slowed; while prices of goods increased faster, mainly due to energy.

Services inflation fell to 1.5 percent in June from 1.9 percent in May. Upward pressure came from: net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.6 percent); maintenance and repair of vehicles (3.2 percent); services of social facilities (3.1 percent) and catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (2.2 percent). Meantime, consumers paid less for air tickets (-4.2 percent) and telecommunication services (-0.7 percent).

Prices of goods rose 2.8 percent, following a 2.5 percent advance a month earlier, as cost of energy increased at a faster pace while cost of food rose less. Prices also increased for newspapers and periodicals (4.8 percent), beer (4.1 percent) and tobacco products (3.7 percent). However, prices were down for consumer electronics (-4.9 percent) and information processing equipment (-4.5 percent).

Energy prices went up 6.4 percent, after a 5.1 percent rise in May. Prices increased mainly for: heating oil (30.3 percent); motor fuels (11.3 percent); electricity (1.2 percent); and charges for central and district heating (0.9 percent). In contrast, gas prices dropped 1.6 percent.

Cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 3.2 percent, following a 3.4 percent increase in May. Price increases were observed for all categories, especially edible fats and oils (14.4 percent), of which butter (26.1 percent); fruit (7.2 percent); and dairy products and eggs (4.8 percent).

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.1 percent in June, compared to a 0.5 percent rise in May. Marked seasonal price increases on the previous month were recorded for air tickets (2.7 percent), package holidays (2.5 percent) and accommodation services (1.4 percent). Also, energy prices were up 0.5 percent, especially due to motor fuels cost (1.5 percent) while prices of household energy remained nearly unchanged (-0.1 percent). Meanwhile, food prices fell 0.3 percent in June, as prices were down especially for fruit and vegetables (-1.7 percent each). Consumers also benefited from slightly lower prices of meat and meat products (-0.3 percent). Also, month-on-month price decreases were recorded for clothing (-2.9 percent) and footwear (-1.3 percent), sometimes as a result of first discounts given on spring and summer articles.

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 2.1 percent from the previous year, and by 0.1 percent month-on-month.


Monday July 09 2018
German Trade Surplus Narrows in May
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German trade surplus fell to EUR 19.7 billion in May 2018 from EUR 21.8 billion in the same month a year earlier, as exports declined while imports rose.

Exports dropped by 1.3 percent from a year earlier to EUR 109.1 billion in May, as sales to countries outside the EU decreased by 6.4 percent to EUR 43.4 billion due to a stronger euro. Meanwhile, exports to the EU grew by 2.4 percent to EUR 65.7 billion, of which Euro area countries (0.1 percent to EUR 40.8 billion) and other European countries (6.5 percent to EUR 24.9 billion). 

On the other hand, imports increased by 0.8 percent to EUR 89.4 billion, as purchases from the EU went up 2.9 percent to EUR 51.8 billion, of which Euro area countries (0.6 percent to EUR 32.9 billion) and other European countries (7 percent to EUR 18.9 billion). Meantime, inbound shipments from countries outside the EU declined by 1.9 percent to EUR 37.6 billion. 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus increased to EUR 20.3 billion in May from a downwardly revised EUR 19.0 billion in April and slightly above market expectations of EUR 20.0 billion. Exports went up by 1.8 percent in May, recovering from a 0.3 percent fall in April and beating forecasts of a 0.75 percent gain. Imports grew at a softer 0.7 percent, following an upwardly revised 2.6 percent growth in April and compared with market consensus of a 0.3 percent fall.

In the first five months of the year, the trade surplus widened to EUR 99.9 billion from EUR 99.2 billion in the same period of 2017.



Friday June 29 2018
German Jobless Rate Unchanged at Near 38-Year Low
Destatis l Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment rate stood at 3.4 percent in May of 2018, unchanged from the previous month's near 38-year low, as the number of unemployed declined further while employment showed no growth.

Compared with the previous month, the number of unemployed people declined by 0.7 percent to 1.48 million, while employment was virtually unchanged at 41.72 million.

Compared with May 2017, unemployment dropped by 9.8 percent from 1.64 million people and employment rose by 0.7 percent from 41.41 million.

Youth unemployment rate inched lower to 6.1 percent from 6.2 percent in the preceding month. 

Separate data from the Labour Office showed the number of unemployed fell by 15 thousand from the previous month to 2.342 million in June 2018, compared with market consensus of a 8 thousand drop. The unemployment rate came in at 5.2 percent in June, unchanged from the previous month and the lowest since German reunification in 1990.


Thursday June 28 2018
German Inflation Rate Slows to 2.1% as Expected
Destatis | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The German consumer price inflation is expected to ease to 2.1 percent year-on-year in June 2018 from a 15-month high of 2.2 percent in the previous month and in line with market expectations. Services inflation is likely to slow from the previous month while prices of goods are set to rise at a faster pace boosted by energy.

Services price inflation is likely to fall to 1.5 percent in June from 1.9 percent in the previous month, with cost of rents advancing by 1.6 percent, the same pace as in May. Meanwhile, prices of goods are expected to advance by 2.8 percent, compared with 2.5 percent in May, as energy inflation is set to increase to 6.4 percent from 5.1 percent. Food cost is likely to rise at a slightly slower pace (3.4 percent vs 3.5 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to rise 0.1 percent in June, after growing 0.5 percent in May and also in line with market consensus.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 2.1 percent from the previous year; and by 0.1 percent from the previous month.


Thursday June 14 2018
German May Inflation Rate Confirmed at 15-Month High
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German consumer price inflation rate stood at 2.2 percent year-on-year in May 2018, unchanged from the preliminary estimate and above the previous month's figure of 1.6 percent. It was the highest rate since February 2017, due to a jump in energy prices and a faster rise in cost of services and food.

Prices of goods rose 2.5 percent year-on-year in May, faster than a 1.6 percent advance in April, as cost of both energy and food rose at a faster pace. Prices also increased for newspapers and periodicals (4.6 percent), tobacco products (4.4 percent) and gardening products and consumer goods (3.7 percent). However, prices were down for some goods such as information processing equipment (-4.2 percent) and consumer electronics (-4.0 percent).

Energy prices jumped 5.1 percent, after a 1.3 percent rise in a month earlier. Prices increased mainly for: heating oil (24.3 percent); motor fuels (8.2 percent); electricity (1.5 percent); and charges for central and district heating (0.5 percent). In contrast, consumers paid less for both solid fuels (-1.5 percent) and gas (-1.1 percent).

Cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 3.4 percent in May, following a 3.3 percent increase in April. Price increases were observed for all categories, especially edible fats and oils (16.5 percent), of which butter (32.3 percent); fruit (8.1 percent); and dairy products and eggs (5.5 percent).

Services inflation rose to 1.9 percent in May  from 1.5 percent in a month earlier, boosted by higher prices of: net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.6 percent); package holiday (10.4 percent); maintenance and repair of vehicles (3.2 percent); and catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (2.2 percent). Meantime, consumers enjoyed lower prices of air tickets (-2.3 percent), telecommunication services (-0.8 percent) and dental services (-0.3 percent).

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index went up 0.5 percent, compared to a flat reading in April. Prices increased for: energy (2.2 percent), particularly heating oil (7.6 percent) and motor fuels (4.8 percent); food (0.2 percent), especially edible fats and oils (3.2 percent), of which butter (6 percent), vegetables (1.9 percent); fruit (0.7 percent) and meat and meat products (0.5 percent). In contrast, prices fell for: dairy products (-2.2 percent); and confectionery (-0.3 percent).
  
The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 2.2 percent from the previous year, and by 0.6 percent month-on-month.