Thursday January 16 2020
German December Inflation Confirmed at 5-Month High
Federal Statistical Office | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's consumer price inflation was confirmed at 1.5 percent year-on-year in December 2019, the highest level since July.

Goods prices rose 1.2 percent in December (vs 0.1 percent in November) mainly due to a faster increase in food prices (2.1 percent vs 1.8 percent) and a softer fall in energy prices (-0.1 percent vs -3.7 percent). In addition, prices were markedly up for tobacco products (4.2 percent) and printed matter (4.1 percent).
 
The energy deflation was due to decreases in prices of heating oil (-6.2 percent) and motor fuels (-4.5 percent). By contrast, cost increased for natural gas (5.2 percent) and electricity (4.1 percent).
 
Food cost rose on the back of meat and meat products (5.5 percent), fruit (3.8 percent) and vegetables (0.2 percent).
 
Services inflation stood at 1.8 percent in December, mainly boosted by net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.5 percent). Also, price increases were observed for services of social facilities (5.2 percent), and maintenance and repair of vehicles (4.8 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.5 percent, recovering from a 0.8 percent fall in November, mainly due to higher prices of package holidays (21.1 percent). Also, food cost increased 0.6 percent, especially meat and meat products (0.9 percent), fruit (1.1 percent), and vegetables  (2.4 percent). Meanwhile, energy prices edged down 0.1 percent.
  
The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1.5 percent from the previous year (vs 1.2 percent in November); and increased 0.6 percent month-over-month (vs -0.8 percent in November).
 
Considering 2019 full year, the inflation rate averaged 1.4 percent, compared to 1.8 percent in 2018 and below the ECB's target of below, but close to, 2 percent.




Thursday January 09 2020
German Trade Surplus Narrows in November
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's trade surplus decreased to EUR 18.3 billion in November 2019 from EUR 20.2 billion in the same month the previous year.

Exports dropped 2.9 percent year-on-year to EUR 112.9 billion in November. Sales to the EU were down 2.4 percent to EUR 66.5 billion, of which Euro area (-2.3 percent to EUR 41.8 billion) and non-Euro area countries (-2.7 percent to EUR 24.7 billion). In addition, exports to countries outside the EU decreased 3.5 percent to EUR 46.4 billion.

Imports declined at a softer 1.6 percent to EUR 94.6 billion. Purchases from the EU fell 1.4 percent to EUR 53.9 billion, of which Euro area (-2.3 percent to EUR 34.2 billion). Meanwhile, imports from non-Euro area countries edged up 0.2 percent to EUR 19.7 billion. Also, arrivals from countries outside the EU were 1.8 percent lower at EUR 40.7 billion.

Considering the first eleven months of the year, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 208.2 billion from EUR 214.7 billion in the corresponding period of 2018.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus also narrowed to EUR 18.3 billion in November from a marginally revised EUR 20.4 billion in October, below market expectations of EUR 20 billion. Exports fell 2.3 percent, worse than expectations of a 0.5 percent drop; while imports dropped unexpectedly by 0.5 percent, compared to forecasts of a 0.2 percent growth.




Thursday December 12 2019
German Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1-1/2-Year Low
Federal Statistical Office | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's consumer price inflation was confirmed at 1.1 percent year-on-year in November 2019, unchanged from the previous month and the lowest level since February 2018. Inflation remained below the ECB's target for the seventh month in a row, as energy deflation deepened.

Goods prices rose 0.1 percent in November (vs 0.4 percent in October) mainly due to a fall in energy prices (-3.7.percent vs -2.1 percent). Meanwhile, food inflation accelerated to 1.8 percent from 1.1 percent. Meantime, prices were markedly up for newspapers and periodicals (5.0 percent) and tobacco products (4.3 percent). However, prices of other goods were down, in particular those of mineral oil products (-12.6 percent), information processing equipment (-6.7 percent), telephones (-5.5 percent), consumer electronics (-4.8 percent).
 
Energy prices fell due to decreases in prices of heating oil (-21.9 percent) and motor fuels (-10.3 percent), while costs increased for natural gas (5.1 percent) and electricity (3.9 percent).
 
Food cost rose as prices were markedly higher for meat and meat products (4.6 percent), fruit (4.0 percent), as well as fish, fish products and seafood (3.5 percent),  In contrast, prices dropped for edible fats and oils (-8.3 percent).

Services inflation picked up to 1.8 percent in November from 1.7 percent in the previous month. This was mainly attributable to the increase in net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.4 percent, the same as in October), as household spend a large part of their consumption expenditure on this item. Also, price increases were observed for services of social facilities (5.2 percent), maintenance and repair of vehicles (4.9 percent), catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (3.0 percent). By contrast, prices of telecommunication services fell 0.5 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined 0.8 percent, after a 0.1 percent gain in October, mainly due to a fall in package holidays prices (-28.1 percent). Also, energy prices edged down 0.1 percent, while food cost (total) increased 0.5 percent, especially food (1.9 percent), and edible fats and oils (1.5 percent).
  
The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 1.2 percent from the previous year, following a 0.9 percent rise in October; and decrease 0.8 percent month-over-month (vs 0.1 percent in October).


Monday December 09 2019
German Trade Surplus Widens in October
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's trade surplus widened to EUR 21.5 billion in October 2019 from EUR 18.7 billion in the same month of the previous year, as exports rose 1.9 percent while imports fell 0.6 percent.

Exports grew by 1.9 percent year-on-year to EUR 119.5 billion in October. Sales to the EU edged up 0.1 percent to EUR 70 billion, boosted by exports to non-Euro area countries (1.7 percent to EUR 26.2 billion), while those to Euro area declined (-0.9 percent to EUR 43.8 billion). At the same time, exports to countries outside the EU rose 4.6 percent to EUR 49.5 billion.

Imports declined 0.6 percent to EUR 98.0 billion. Purchases from the EU fell 0.2 percent to EUR 55.2 billion, as imports from non-Euro area countries dropped (-0.7 percent to EUR 19.6 billion), while those from Euro area increased (0.1 percent to EUR 35.5 billion). Also, purchases from countries outside the EU went down 1 percent to EUR 42.8 billion.

Considering the first ten months of the year, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 190.1 billion from EUR 194.5 billion in the corresponding period of 2018.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus unexpectedly increased to EUR 20.6 billion in October from EUR 19.2 billion in September, above market consensus of EUR 19 billion, as exports rose 1.2 percent, easily beating expectations of a 0.7 percent fall; while imports were flat, compared to consensus of a 0.1 percent decrease.



Friday November 29 2019
German Jobless Rate Holds Steady at 39-Year Low
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment rate was unchanged for the sixth straight month at 3.1 percent in October 2019, the lowest in 39 years. The the number of unemployed rose while employment showed no growth.

The number of unemployed people rose 0.8 percent from the previous month to 1.34 million, while employment was flat at 41.99 million.

Compared with October 2018, unemployment fell by 6.3 percent from 1.43 million and the number of employed rose by 0.4 percent from 41.84 million.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers under 25 years old, was also stable at 5.8 percent in October.

Separate data from the Labour Office showed that the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed fell by 16 thousand from a month earlier to 2.266 million in November, compared to market expectations of a 5 thousand increase. The jobless rate was unchanged at 5 percent, remaining close to the lowest since German reunification in 1990.




Thursday November 28 2019
German Inflation Rate Unchanged at 1-1/2-Year Low
Destatis | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's consumer price inflation is expected to hold steady at 1.1 percent year-on-year in November 2019, the lowest level since February 2018 and below market expectations of 1.3 percent, a preliminary estimate showed. Inflation should also remain below the ECB's target level for the seventh month in a row, as energy deflation is likely to deepen further, while services and food prices are set to increase at a faster pace.

Goods prices are set to increase 0.1 percent in November, easing from a 0.4 percent rise in the previous month, mainly due to a fall in energy prices (-3.7 percent vs -2.1 percent). Meanwhile, food prices are seen growing by 1.8 percent, faster than 1.1 percent in October.

Services inflation is likely to pick up to 1.8 percent from 1.7 percent, with rents prices advancing 1.4 percent, the same as in October.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to drop 0.8 percent, after a 0.1 percent gain in October and compared to market forecasts of 0.6 percent fall.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise 1.2 percent from the previous year (vs 0.9 percent in October); and decline 0.8 percent month-over-month (vs 0.1 percent in October).


Friday November 22 2019
German Q3 GDP Rebound Confirmed
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's GDP growth was confirmed at a seasonally-adjusted 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019, compared to a 0.2 percent contraction in the previous three-month period.

Positive contributions to the GDP growth came from foreign trade (0.5 percentage points) and consumption expenditure (0.4 percentage points). Meanwhile, gross capital formation subtracted 0.8 percentage points to the GDP, led by a negative contribution of 0.7 percentage points from inventory changes, while gross fixed capital formation was neutral.

Exports of goods and services jumped 1.0 percent in the third quarter (vs -1.3 percent in Q2), while imports edged up 0.1 percent (vs -0.1 percent in Q2).

In addition, household consumption growth accelerated in the three months to September (0.4 percent vs 0.1 percent), as well as government spending (0.8 percent vs 0.6 percent); while fixed investment continued to decline (-0.1 percent vs -0.3 percent) due to a fall in machinery and equipment investment (-2.6 percent vs 0.3 percent). At the same time, there was an advance in investment in both construction (1.2 percent vs -1.1 percent) and other products, including expenditure on research and development (1.0 percent vs 0.9 percent). 

Year-on-year, the economy grew a calendar-adjusted 0.5 percent in the September quarter, after a 0.3 percent advance in the previous three-month period. On an unadjusted basis, the economy expanded by 1.0 percent, recovering from a 0.1 percent contraction in the second quarter.




Thursday November 14 2019
German Economy Avoids Recession in Q3
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's gross domestic product grew by a seasonally-adjusted 0.1 percent on quarter in the three months to September 2019, rebounding from a revised 0.2 percent fall in the previous period and beating market expectations of a 0.1 percent contraction, a preliminary estimate showed.

Positive contributions mainly came from consumption, according to provisional calculations. Household final consumption expenditure increased, and so did government final consumption expenditure. Also, gross fixed capital formation in construction was up on the previous quarter. Gross fixed capital formation in machinery and equipment, however, was lower than in the previous quarter. Exports rose, while imports remained roughly at the level of the previous quarter, suggesting that net trade had a positive impact on the economy.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded by a calendar-adjusted 0.5 percent in the third quarter, following a revised 0.3 percent growth in the previous three-month period and matching forecasts. On an unadjusted basis, the economy expanded 1.0 percent, recovering from a 0.1 percent contraction in the second quarter.


Wednesday November 13 2019
German Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1-1/2-Year Low
Federal Statistical Office | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The inflation rate in Germany was confirmed at 1.1 percent year-on-year in October 2019, down from 1.2 percent in the previous month. This was the lowest rate since February 2018, as energy deflation deepened while food and services prices increased at a softer pace.

Goods prices rose 0.4 percent in October (vs 0.6 percent in September) mainly due to a fall in energy prices (-2.1 percent vs -1.1 percent) and a slowdown in food inflation (1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent). Meantime, prices were markedly up for newspapers and periodicals (5.1 percent) and tobacco products (4.1 percent). However, prices of other goods were down, in particular those of mineral oil products (-9.1 percent), information processing equipment (-7.1 percent), consumer electronics (-5.4 percent) and telephones (-5.1 percent).
 
Energy prices fell due to decreases in prices of heating oil (-15.8 percent) and motor fuels (-7.5 percent), while costs increased for natural gas (5.1 percent) and electricity (3.9 percent).
 
Food cost rose as prices were markedly higher particularly for meat and meat products (4.9 percent), fish, fish products and seafood (3.3 percent), as well as bread and cereals (2.6 percent). In contrast, prices dropped for edible fats and oils (-11.6 percent) and vegetables (-2.8 percent).

Services inflation slowed to 1.7 percent in October from 1.8 percent in the previous month. This was mainly attributable to the increase in net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.4 percent, the same as in September), as household spend a large part of their consumption expenditure on this item. Also, price increases were observed for services of social facilities (5.2 percent), maintenance and repair of vehicles (5.0 percent), hairdresser service and other services for personal care (3.0 percent), catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (2.8 percent). By contrast, prices of telecommunication services fell 0.5 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices inched 0.1 percent higher, after being unchanged in September, as prices increased for both footwear (2.3 percent) and clothing (0.9 percent). Meanwhile, energy cost dropped 0.1 percent, especially heating oil (-0.8 percent), and food prices were down 0.4 percent due to vegetables (-3.8 percent).
  
The harmonised index of consumer prices rose by 0.9 percent from the previous year, the same pace as in September; and by 0.1 percent month-over-month (vs -0.1 percent in September).


Friday November 08 2019
German Trade Surplus Widens in September
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's trade surplus widened to EUR 21.1 billion in September 2019 from EUR 18.2 billion in the same month last year.

Exports advanced 4.6 percent year-on-year to EUR 114.2 billion in September. Sales to the EU increased 5.6 percent to EUR 68.4 billion, of which Euro area (4.8 percent to EUR 43 billion) and non-Euro area countries (7 percent to EUR 25.4 billion). In addition, exports to countries outside the EU rose 3.2 percent to EUR 45.7 billion.

Imports grew 2.3 percent to EUR 93 billion. Purchases from the EU went up 2.1 percent to EUR 53.6 billion, of which Euro area (1.4 percent to EUR 34.4 billion) and non-Euro area countries (3.3 percent to EUR 19.2 billion). Also, arrivals from countries outside the EU expanded 2.5 percent to EUR 39.4 billion.
Considering the first nine months of the year, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 168.8 billion from EUR 175.8 billion in the corresponding period 2018.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus increased to EUR 19.2 billion in September from an upwardly revised revised EUR 18.7 billion in August, beating market consensus of EUR 18.1 billion. Exports rose 1.5 percent, better than expectations of a 0.4 percent rise; while imports advanced 1.3 percent, compared to consensus of a flat reading.