Thursday July 11 2019
German June Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1.6%
Federal Statistical Office | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The inflation rate in Germany was confirmed at 1.6 percent year-on-year in June 2019, up from 1.4 percent in the previous month, as both services and food prices rose at a faster pace while energy inflation eased.

Services inflation accelerated to 1.9 percent in June from 1.2 percent in May. This was mainly attributable to the increase in package holiday prices (6.1 percent). Also, price increases were observed  for services of social facilities (5.2 percent), maintenance and repair of vehicles (4.7 percent) and rail tickets (3.6 percent). Another major factor contributing to the development of service prices was the increase in net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.4 percent), as households spend a large part of their consumption expenditure on this item. In contrast, an unusually large price decrease was recorded for pre-primary education services (-12.2 percent), which was due especially to the reduction of childcare costs in some Länder.

Goods prices increased 1.5 percent in June, slower than 1.8 percent in the prior month, as a slowdown in energy inflation offset a pick up in food inflation. Gains were also recorded for other goods such as newspapers and periodicals (4.6 percent) and tobacco products (3.4 percent). However, prices were down for some goods such as telephones (-6.9 percent) and consumer electronics (-6.1 percent).
 
Food costs increased 1.2 percent, compared to a 0.9 percent rise in May, as vegetable prices increased substantially (9.6 percent). Price rises were also recorded for fish, fish products and seafood (3.0 percent), meat and meat products (2.8 percent), and bread and cereals (2.2 percent). In contrast, prices fell considerably for edible fats and oils (-9.3 percent) and fruit (-6.1 percent).
 
Meanwhile, energy inflation eased to 2.5 percent from 4.2 percent in May. The prices of district heating (5.6 percent), natural gas (4.1 percent), electricity (3.4 percent), and motor fuel (1.2 percent) were higher, while heating oil prices dropped 3.5 percent.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.3 percent in June, accelerating from a 0.2 percent gain in May. This was mainly due to prices of package holidays (18.6 percent). Prices were also up for air tickets (2.6 percent), including international flight (2.9 percent), rail tickets (1.6 percent) and accommodation (0.9 percent). Meantime, food prices remained nearly unchanged (0.1 percent), while energy costs were down 1.1 percent. Consumers also benefited from lower clothing and footwear prices (-1.7 percent), which was partly due to first discounts given on spring and summer articles.

The harmonised index of consumer prices went up 1.5 percent from the previous year (vs preliminary 1.3 percent and May's final 1.3 percent); and 0.3 percent month-over-month (vs preliminary 0.1 percent and May's 0.3 percent).




Monday July 08 2019
German Trade Surplus Widens in May
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German trade surplus widened slightly to EUR 20.6 billion in May 2019 from EUR 20.0 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Exports increased by 4.5 percent year-on-year to EUR 113.9 billion in May. Sales to the EU grew by 0.6 percent to EUR 66.1 billion, of which Euro area (3.8 percent to EUR 42.3 billion) and non-Euro area countries (-4.8 percent to EUR 23.8 billion). In addition, exports to countries outside the EU jumped 10.4 percent to EUR 47.9 billion.

Imports rose by 4.9 percent to EUR 93.4 billion. Purchases from the EU went up 4.7 percent to EUR 54.2 billion, of which Euro area (8.7 percent to EUR 35.8 billion) and non-Euro area countries (-2.3 percent to EUR 18.4 billion). Also, imports from countries outside the EU rose 5.1 percent to EUR 39.2 billion.

Considering the first five months of 2019, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 93.3 billion from EUR 100.4 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus increased to EUR 18.7 billion in May from a revised EUR 16.9 billion in April, beating market consensus of EUR 17 billion.
Exports rose by 1.1 percent, above expectations of a 0.5 percent growth; while imports fell unexpectedly by 0.5 percent, against consensus of a 0.3 percent gain.




Monday July 01 2019
German Jobless Rate Holds Steady at 39-Year Low
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment stood at 3.1 percent in May 2019, unchanged from a downwardly revised figure in the previous month. The jobless rate remained at its lowest level since March 1980, as the number of unemployed dropped further and employment grew slightly.

The number of unemployed people fell 0.7 percent to 1.35 million in May from 1.36 million in April, while employment edged up 0.1 percent to 42.21 million from 42.17 million.

Compared with May 2018, unemployed people dropped 8.8 percent from 1.48 million and the number of employed rose 1.3 percent from 41.65 million.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers under 25 years old, inched lower to a fresh recod low of 5.1 percent in May from 5.2 percent in April.

Separate data from the Labour Office showed that the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed decreased by 1 thousand from a month earlier to 2.281 million in June 2019, following a 60 thousand rise in the previous month and compared to market expectations of 3 thousand fall. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, remaining close to the lowest since German reunification in 1990.




Thursday June 27 2019
German Inflation Rate Beats Forecasts
Destatis | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

The inflation rate in Germany is expected to rise to 1.6 percent year-on-year in June 2019 from 1.4 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 1.4 percent.

Services inflation is expected to climb to 2.0 percent in June from 1.2 percent in May, with rents prices advancing 1.4 percent, the same pace as in the previous month. Also, food prices are set to increase 1.2 percent, faster than 0.9 percent in May; while energy inflation will probably slow to 2.2 percent from 4.2 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to advance 0.3 percent in June, following a 0.2 percent gain in May and also beating market forecasts of 0.1 percent.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise 1.3 percent from the previous year, the same pace as in the previous period; and 0.1 percent month-over-month (vs 0.3 percent in May).


Thursday June 13 2019
German May Inflation Rate Confirmed at 1.4%
Federal Statistical Office | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

The inflation rate in Germany was confirmed at 1.4 percent year-on-year in May 2019, down from the previous month's five-month high of 2 percent, as both energy and services prices rose at a softer pace.

Goods prices increased 1.8 percent in May, the same pace as in the previous month, as a slowdown in energy inflation offset a pick up in food inflation. Gains were also recorded for other goods such as newspapers and periodicals (4.9 percent) and tobacco products (3.8 percent). However, a marked declined was recorded for mobile phones (-9.6 percent) and consumer electronics (-6.9 percent).

Energy prices advanced 4.2 percent (vs 4.6 percent in April), boosted by motor fuel prices (4.6 percent), heating oil (3.7 percent), district heating (5.5 percent), natural gas (3.4 percent), and electricity (3.2 percent).

Meanwhile, food cost increased 0.9 percent in May, accelerating from a 0.8 percent rise in April, as vegetable prices increased substantially (8.7 percent). Price rises were also recorded for fish, fish products and seafood (2.9 percent) and for bread and cereals (2.3 percent). In contrast, prices fell considerably for fruit (-7.6 percent) and edible fats and oils (-4.9 percent).
 
Services inflation slowed sharply to 1.2 percent from 2.1 percent. This was mainly attributable to the decrease in package holiday prices (-9.0 percent). Price increases were observed, among other things, for long-distance coach journeys (19.0 percent), services of social facilities (5.1 percent), maintenance and repair of vehicles (4.7 percent) and catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (2.8 percent). Another major factor contributing to the development of service prices was the increase in net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.4 percent), as households spend a large part of their consumption expenditure on this item.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index rose 0.2 percent in May, easing from a 1 percent jump in April. This was mainly due to prices of long-distance coach journeys (7.6 percent). Prices were also up for motor fuels (4.0 percent), fruit (1.8 percent) and vegetables (0.9 percent). Energy costs increased by 1.6 percent. In contrast, package holiday prices were down (-2.4 percent). In May, passengers paid also less for passenger transport by air (-3.6 percent) and by rail (-1.7 percent) compared with a month earlier.

The harmonised index of consumer prices went up 1.3 percent from the previous year (vs 2.1 percent in April); and 0.3 percent month-over-month (vs 1 percent in April).


Friday June 07 2019
German Trade Surplus Narrows as Exports Fall
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German trade surplus narrowed to EUR 17.9 billion in April 2019 from EUR 20.4 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Exports dropped 0.5 percent year-on-year to EUR 109.7 billion in April. Sales to the EU declined 3.5 percent to EUR 63.8 billion, of which Euro area (-0.5 percent to EUR 41.6 billion) and non-Euro area countries (-8.7 percent to EUR 22.3 billion). Meanwhile, exports to countries outside the EU grew by 4 percent to EUR 45.8 billion.

Imports increased 2.1 percent to EUR 91.7 billion. Purchases from the EU went up 1.9 percent to EUR 53.1 billion, of which Euro area (2.5 percent to EUR 34.8 billion) and non-Euro area countries (0.7 percent to EUR 18.2 billion). In addition, imports from countries outside the EU rose 2.4 percent to EUR 38.6 billion. 

Considering the first four months of 2019, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 73 billion from EUR 80.4 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus decreased to EUR 17.0 billion in April from EUR 20.0 billion in March, missing market consensus of EUR 18.6 billion. Exports plunged 3.7 percent, worse than expectations of a 0.9 percent decline; and imports fell 1.3 percent, compared to consensus of a 0.2 percent drop.



Friday May 31 2019
German Inflation Rate Slows More than Expected
Federal Statistical Office | Agna Gabriel | agna.gabriel@tradingeconomics.com

The inflation rate in Germany is expected to fall to 1.4 percent year-on-year in May of 2019 from a five-month high of 2 percent in the previous month and below market consensus of 1.6 percent.

Services inflation is expected to drop to 1.2 percent in May from 2.1 percent in April, with rents prices advancing 1.4 percent, the same pace as in the previous month. Also, energy prices are set to increase 4.2 percent, slower than 4.6 percent in April; and food prices are likely to rise 0.9 percent, compared to 0.8 percent in the previous period. 

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to went up by 0.2 percent in May, following a 1 percent jump in April and also below market forecasts of 0.3 percent.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise 1.3 percent from the previous year (vs 2.1 percent in April); and 0.3 percent month-over-month (vs 1 percent in April).


Wednesday May 29 2019
German Jobless Rate Unchanged at 39-Year Low
Destatis l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment stood at 3.2 percent in April 2019, unchanged from the previous month's 39-year low, as the number of unemployed declined further and employment increased slightly.

The number of unemployed people fell 0.7 percent to 1.38 million in April from 1.39 million in March, while employment edged up 0.1 percent to 42.15 million from 42.09 million.

Compared with April 2018, unemployed people dropped 6.8 percent from 1.48 millione and the number of employed rose 1.2 percent from 41.64 million.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers under 25 years old, came in at 5.3 percent in April, the same as in March and staying at its lowest on record.

Separate data from the Labour Office showed that the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed increased by 60 thousand from a month earlier to 2.279 million in May 2019, following a 12 thousand decline in the previous month and well above market expectations of an 8 thousand fall. It was the first rise in registered unemployment since June 2017 and the largest in a decade. The unemployment rate went up to 5 percent in May from 4.9 percent in April.


Thursday May 23 2019
German Q1 GDP Rebound Confirmed
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy advanced a seasonally-adjusted 0.4 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2019, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and after showing no growth in the previous period. The expansion was mainly supported by the fastest increase in household spending in eight years, a pick-up in construction activity and rising exports.

The biggest contributions to the GDP growth came from household consumption (0.6 percentage points), gross fixed capital formation (0.2 percentage points), and net foreign trade (0.2 percentage points). In contrast, changes in inventories and public spending subtracted 0.6 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points respectively.

Household consumption surged 1.2 percent in the March quarter, the steepest quarterly growth since 2011, compared to a 0.3 percent gain in the December quarter. In addition, fixed investment advanced at a faster 1.1 percent (vs 0.8 percent in Q4), mainly boosted by investment in construction (1.9 percent vs 1 percent) and machinery and equipment (1.2 percent vs 0.7 percent). Exports of goods and services rose 1 percent in the three months to March (vs 0.6 percent in Q4) while import growth was steady at 0.7 percent.

Meanwhile, government spending contracted 0.3 percent
, compared to an increase of 1.3 percent in the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded a calendar-adjusted 0.7 percent in the first quarter, following a 0.6 percent growth in the previous three-month period. On an unadjusted basis, the GDP rose by 0.6 percent, easing from a 0.9 percent increase in the December quarter.




Wednesday May 15 2019
German Economy Returns to Growth in Q1
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy advanced a seasonally-adjusted 0.4 percent on quarter in the three months to March 2019, after showing no growth in the previous period and matching market expectations, a preliminary estimate showed.

Positive contributions mainly came from domestic demand, according to provisional calculations. In the first quarter of 2019, fixed capital formation in construction and in machinery and equipment increased considerably compared with the fourth quarter of 2018. Household final consumption expenditure, too, increased substantially on the previous quarter. However, government final consumption expenditure recorded a decline. There were mixed signals regarding foreign trade; both exports and imports increased compared with the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded a calendar-adjusted 0.7 percent in the first quarter, following a 0.6 percent growth in the previous three-month period and also in line with forecasts. On an unadjusted basis, the GDP rose by 0.6 percent, easing from a 0.9 percent increase in the December quarter.