Wednesday January 16 2019
Germany December Inflation Confirmed at 8-Month Low
Federal Statistical Office l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's annual inflation rate slowed to an eight-month low of 1.7 percent in December 2018 from 2.3 percent in the previous month and in line with the preliminary estimates. Energy and food prices rose at a softer pace while services inflation was steady.

Goods inflation eased to 2 percent in December from 3.2 percent in November, due to a slowdown in both of energy (4.8 percent vs 9.3 percent) and food (1.0 percent vs 1.4 percent).

Cost of food increased 1.0 percent, following a 1.4 percent increase in November. Price increases were observed for vegetables (8.1 percent); and meat (0.6 percent). Meanwhile, fruit prices fell by 5.1 percent.
 
On the other hand, energy prices advanced 4.8 percent, after a 9.3 percent rise in a month earlier. Prices increased mainly for: heating oil (16.1 percent); motor fuels (8.6 percent); electricity (1.0 percent). By contrast, gas prices dropped 1.4 percent.
 
Services cost went up 1.5 percent in December, the same pace as in the prior month, with cost of rents advancing by 1.5 percent. Upward pressure came from: maintenance and repair of vehicles (2.6 percent). Meantime, consumers paid less for pre-primary and primary education services (-12.0 percent); and telecommunication services (-0.7 percent).

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.1 percent in December, the same pace as a month earlier and matching preliminary estimates. Prices of energy fell by 4.2 percent, especially due to heating oil (-16.7 percent), and motor fuels (-6.4 percent). Also, price decreases were recorded for clothing (-2.0 percent). Meantime, food prices went up by 0.3 percent, mainly due to vegetables (2.3 percent); and fruit (1.3 percent).
 
The harmonised index of consumer prices went up by 1.7 percent from the previous year; and by 0.3 percent month-over-month.
 
 




Wednesday January 09 2019
German Trade Surplus Narrows in November
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 20.5 billion in November 2018 from EUR 23.8 billion in the same month a year earlier, as imports rose 3.6 percent while exports were nearly unchanged.

Imports increased 3.6 percent from a year earlier to EUR 95.7 billion in November. Purchases from the EU went up 3.1 percent to EUR 54.5 billion, of which Euro area (2.9 percent to EUR 34.8 billion) and non-Euro area countries (3.3 percent to EUR 19.7 billion). In addition, imports from countries outside the EU grew 4.3 percent to EUR 41.2 billion.

Meanwhile, exports were nearly unchanged at EUR 116.3 billion. Sales to the EU edged up 0.3 percent to EUR 68.1 billion, as higher exports to non-Euro area countries (1.3 percent to EUR 25.3 billion) were partially offset by a decline in sales to Euro area (-0.4 percent to EUR 42.8 billion). At the same time, sales to countries outside the EU dropped 0.4 percent to EUR 48.2 billion.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus widened to EUR 19.0 billion in November from an upwardly revised EUR 17.9 billion in October and above market expectations of EUR 18.0 billion. Imports slumped 1.6 percent, against market consensus of a 0.4 percent rise, while exports decreased at a slower 0.4 percent, compared to expectations of a 0.3 percent fall.

Considering January to November, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 214.2 billion from EUR 229.5 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.




Friday January 04 2019
German Jobless Rate Unchanged at Over 38-Year Low
Destatis | Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment stood at 3.3 percent in November 2018, unchanged from the previous month's 38-year low, as the number of unemployed declined further and employment grew slightly.

The number of unemployed people fell by 0.7 percent from a month earlier to 1.44 million in November, while employment edged up 0.2 percent to 42.06 million.

Compared with November last year, unemployment dropped by 7.7 percent from 1.56 million people and the number of employed rose by 1 percent from 41.66 million.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers under 25 years old, was unchanged at 6.1 percent in November, staying at the lowest level since March 1992.

Separate data from the Labour Office showed that the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed fell by 14 thousand from a month earlier to 2.26 million in December, following a 16 thousand drop in November and compared to market consensus of an 11 thousand decline. The unemployment rate stood at 5 percent in December, unchanged from the previous month and the lowest since German reunification in 1990.




Friday December 28 2018
German Inflation Rate Falls to 8-Month Low
Destatis | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's annual inflation rate is expected to ease to an eight-month low of 1.7 percent in December 2018 from 2.3 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 1.9 percent. Prices of energy and food are set to rise at a slower pace while service inflation should be flat.

Goods inflation is expected to drop to 2 percent in December from 3.2 percent in November, due to a slowdown in energy (4.8 percent vs 9.3 percent) and food prices (1 percent vs 1.4 percent). Meanwhile, services cost is likely to increase 1.5 percent in December, the same pace as in the previous month, with rents prices advancing by 1.5 percent, also the same as in November.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to advance 0.1 percent in December, also missing market consensus of a 0.3 percent gain.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.7 percent from the previous year; and by 0.3 percent month-over-month.


Thursday December 13 2018
Germany Inflation Confirmed at 2.3% in November
Federal Statistical Office l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's annual inflation rate slowed to 2.3 percent in October 2018 from a ten year high of 2.5 percent in the previous month and in line with the preliminary estimates. Services and food inflation eased while energy inflation pick up.

Services inflation slowed to 1.5 percent in November from 1.8 percent in the prior month, with cost of rents advancing by 1.5 percent, compared with 1.6 percent in October. Also, goods inflation was unchanged at 3.2 percent in November, as a slowdown in food prices (1.4 percent vs 1.9 percent) was offset by a pick up in energy inflation (9.3 percent vs 8.9 percent).
 
Upward pressure came from: maintenance and repair of vehicles (2.5 percent), and catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (2.1 percent). Meantime, consumers paid less for pre-primary and primary education services (-11.9 percent); and telecommunication services (-0.7 percent).
 
Prices of goods went up by 3.2 percent in November, the same pace as in October, boosted by prices of both energy (9.3 percent vs 8.9 percent) and food (1.4 percent vs 1.9 percent).

Cost of food increased 1.4 percent, following a 1.9 percent increase in October. Price increases were observed for fish and fish products (2.5 percent); dairy products and eggs (0.5 percent), bread and cereal (1.9 percent), and vegetables (9.8 percent). Meanwhile, fruit prices fell by 4.2 percent.
 
On the other hand, energy prices advanced 9.3 percent, after a 8.9 percent rise in a month earlier. Prices increased mainly for: heating oil (40.7 percent); motor fuels (15 percent); electricity (1.0 percent); and charges for central and district heating (3.7 percent). By contrast, gas prices dropped 1.4 percent.
 
On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.1 percent in November, after a 0.2 percent rise in a month earlier and matching preliminary estimates. Prices of energy rose by 1.8 percent, especially due to mineral oil products (3.7 percent), of which heating oil (5.9 percent), and motor fuels (2.8 percent). Meantime, food prices edged down by 0.2 percent, mainly due to fruit (-2.1 percent).
Also, price decreases were recorded for package accommodation services (-1 percent), footwear (-0.5 percent), and clothing (-0.4 percent). 

The harmonised index of consumer prices went up by 2.2 percent from the previous year; and by 0.1 percent month-over-month.
 
 
 
 
 
 


Monday December 10 2018
German Trade Surplus Narrows in October
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 18.3 billion in October 2018 from EUR 19.1 billion in the same month a year earlier.

Imports jumped 11.3 percent from a year earlier to EUR 98.9 billion in October. Purchases from the EU increased by 7.5 percent to EUR 55.1 billion, of which Euro area (7.1 percent to EUR 35.3 billion) and non-Euro area countries (8.3 percent to EUR 19.7 billion). In addition, imports from countries outside the EU surged 16.4 percent to EUR 43.8 billion.

Meanwhile, exports increased at a slower 8.5 percent to EUR 117.2 billion. Sales to the EU went up 8.1 percent to EUR 69.8 billion, in particular Euro area (8.9 percent to EUR 44.0 billion) and non-Euro area countries (6.9 percent to EUR 25.8 billion). Also, sales to countries outside the EU grew 9.2 percent to EUR 47.4 billion.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus narrowed slightly to EUR 17.3 billion in October from an upwardly revised EUR 17.7 billion in September and below market expectations of EUR 17.7 billion. Imports increased by 1.3 percent, against market consensus of a 0.4 percent rise, and exports rose at a slower 0.7 percent, still beating expectations of a 0.5 percent advance.

Considering January to October 2018, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 192.5 billion from EUR 205.7 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.



Thursday November 29 2018
German Inflation Rate Slows Below Forecasts
Destatis | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's annual inflation rate is expected to ease to 2.3 percent in November 2018 from a ten-year high of 2.5 percent in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 2.4 percent. Prices of services and food are set to rise at a slower pace while energy inflation should pick up.

Services prices are likely to increase at a slower 1.5 percent in November, following a 1.8 percent gain in the previous month, with cost of rents advancing by 1.5 percent, compared with 1.6 percent in October. Also, goods inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.2 percent in November, as a slowdown in food prices (1.4 percent vs 1.9 percent) was offset by a pick up in energy inflation (9.3 percent vs 8.9 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to rise 0.1 percent in November, after growing 0.2 percent in October and slightly missing consensus of 0.2 percent.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 2.2 percent from the previous year; and by 0.1 percent month-over-month.


Thursday November 29 2018
German Jobless Rate Falls to Over 38-Year Low
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment rate edged down to 3.3 percent in October 2018 from 3.4 percent in the previous month. It was the lowest jobless rate since June 1980, as the number of unemployed fell further while employment was little-changed.

The number of unemployed people fell by 0.7 percent from a month earlier to 1.44 million in October, while employment edged up 0.1 percent to 41.65 million.

Compared with October 2017, unemployment dropped by 8.3 percent from 1.57 million people and the number of employed declined by 0.1 percent from 41.69 million.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers under 25 years old, was unchanged at 6.2 percent in October, staying at the lowest figure since April 1992.

Separate data from the Labour Office showed the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed fell by 16 thousand from a month earlier to 2.28 million in November, following a revised 12 thousand drop in October and above market consensus of a 10 thousand decline. The unemployment rate fell to 5 percent in November, the lowest since German reunification in 1990.


Friday November 23 2018
German Q3 GDP Contraction Confirmed
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy shrank a seasonally-adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to September of 2018, unrevised from the preliminary estimate and after a 0.5 percent growth in the previous period. This was the first quarterly contraction since the first quarter of 2015 due to declines in both exports and household consumption.

The largest negative contributions to the GDP growth came from foreign trade (-1 percentage points) and household consumption (-0.1 percentage points). Meanwhile, government spending was neutral while gross fixed capital formation added 0.2 percentage points to the GDP and changes in inventories contributed 0.7 percentage points.

Exports of goods and services declined by 0.9 percent in the third quarter, compared to a 0.8 percent growth in the second quarter. At the same time, imports grew 1.3 percent, following a 1.5 percent rise in the previous period.

Household consumption dropped 0.3 percent (vs 0.3 percent in Q2) amid reluctance to buy new cars while government spending rose 0.2 percent (vs 0.8 percent in Q2). Meanwhile, fixed investment expanded at a faster pace (0.8 percent vs 0.5 percent in Q2), driven by investment in machinery and equipment (0.8 percent vs 0.1 percent), construction (0.9 percent, the same as in Q2) and other fixed assets (0.2 percent vs 0.3 percent). 

Year-on-year, the economy expanded a calendar-adjusted 1.1 percent in the third quarter, following a 2 percent growth in the previous three-month period. On an unadjusted basis, the GDP grew by 1.1 percent, much weaker than a 2.3 percent advance in the June quarter.





Wednesday November 14 2018
German GDP Contracts for 1st Time in 3-1/2 Years
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy shrank 0.2 percent on quarter in the three months to September 2018, worse than market expectations of a 0.1 percent fall and following a 0.5 percent growth in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. This was the first quarterly contraction since the first quarter of 2015 due to declines in both exports and household consumption.

The slight quarter-on-quarter decline in the gross domestic product was mainly due to the development of foreign trade. According to provisional calculations, exports were down while imports were up in the third quarter. As regards domestic demand, there were mixed signals. While gross fixed capital formation both in machinery and equipment and in construction was higher than in the previous quarter, final consumption expenditure of households declined. Government final consumption expenditure was slightly higher than in the previous quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy expanded a calendar-adjusted 1.1 percent in the September quarter, following a 2 percent growth in the previous three-month period. On an unadjusted basis, the GDP grew by 1.1 percent, much weaker than a 2.3 percent advance in the June quarter.