Friday October 12 2018
Germany Inflation Rate Confirmed at Near 7-Year High
Federal Statistical Office l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's annual inflation rate increased to 2.3 percent in September 2018 from 2 percent in the previous month and in line with the preliminary estimate. It was the highest inflation rate since November 2011, as prices of services, energy and food increased at a faster pace.

Services inflation rose 1.5 percent in September from 1.4 percent in the prior month, with cost of net rents exclusive of heating expenses advancing by 1.5 percent, compared with 1.6 percent in August. Upward pressure came from: package holidays (3.1 percent); and maintenance and repair of vehicles (2.7 percent). Meantime, consumers paid less for pre-primary and primary education services (-11.4 percent); air tickets (-3.9 percent), and telecommunication services (-0.7 percent).

Also, prices of goods went up by 3.1 percent in September, following a 2.7 percent gain in August, boosted by prices of both energy (7.7 percent vs 6.9 percent) and food (2.8 percent vs 2.5 percent).

Cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages went up 2.8 percent, following a 2.4 percent increase in August. Price increases were observed for fruit (2.7 percent); dairy products and eggs (3.5 percent), and vegetables (12.3 percent).

Energy prices went up 7.7 percent, after a 6.9 percent rise in a month earlier. Prices increased mainly for: heating oil (35.6 percent); motor fuels (13.0 percent); electricity (0.9 percent); and charges for central and district heating (2.4 percent). In contrast, gas prices dropped 1.5 percent.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.4 percent in September, after a 0.1 percent rise in a month earlier and matching earlier estimates. Prices of energy rose by 2.0 percent, especially due to mineral oil products (4.3 percent), of which heating oil (9.7 percent), and motor fuels (2.6 percent). More substantial price increases were observed for clothing (8.1 percent), especially because the autumn/winter collection has started to arrive. Also, prices of food rose 0.9 percent, especially for vegetables (7.8 percent). Meantime, price decreases were recorded for package holidays (-19.5 percent), and air ticket (-4.2 percent).

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 2.2 percent from the previous year, and by 0.4 percent month-over-month.




Tuesday October 09 2018
German Trade Surplus Narrows in August
Destatis l Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German trade surplus decreased to EUR 17.2 billion in August 2018 from EUR 20.0 billion in the same month a year earlier, as exports rose by 2.2 percent to EUR 105.2 billion, while imports increased at a faster 6.2 percent to EUR 88.1 billion.

Imports grew by 6.2 percent from a year earlier to EUR 88.1 billion in August. Purchases from the EU increased by 5.2 percent to EUR 48.3 billion, of which Euro area countries (7.2 percent to EUR 31.4 billion) and other European countries (1.8 percent to EUR 17.0 billion). In addition, imports from countries outside the EU rose by 7.2 percent to EUR 39.7 billion.

Meanwhile, exports went up at a softer 2.2 percent to EUR 105.2 billion, as sales to the EU grew by 1.2 percent to EUR 59.3 billion, of which Euro area countries (1.3 percent to EUR 36.4 billion) and other European countries (1.1 percent to EUR 22.9 billion). Also, exports to countries outside the EU advanced 3.5 percent to EUR 45.9 billion. 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus widened to EUR 18.3 billion in August from an upwardly revised EUR 15.9 billion in July and beating market expectations of EUR 16.4 billion. Exports dropped unexpectedly by 0.1 percent, missing forecasts of a 0.3 percent rise and after a downwardly revised 0.8 percent fall in a month earlier. Imports declined at a faster 2.7 percent, worse than market consensus of a 0.2 percent fall and compared to a 2.8 percent rise in July.

Considering January to August 2018, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 155.9 billion from EUR 160.1 billion in the same period the prior year.




Friday September 28 2018
German Jobless Rate Holds Steady at 38-Year Low
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment rate was unchanged at a near 38-year low of 3.4 percent in August 2018, as the number of unemployed fell further while employment was flat.

The number of unemployed people fell by 0.7 percent from a month earlier to 1.45 million in August, while employment was virtually unchanged at 41.58 million.

Compared with August 2017, unemployment dropped by 9.4 percent from 1.60 million people and the number of employed declined by 0.2 percent from 41.66 million.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 25 years old, edged down to 6.2 percent in August from 6.3 percent in the previous month. It was the lowest rate since March 1992.

Separate data from the Labour Office showed the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed in Germany fell by 23 thousand from a month earlier to 2.30 million in September after an upwardly revised 10 thousand drop in August and above market consensus of a 9 thousand decline. The unemployment rate fell to 5.1 percent in September, the lowest since German reunification in 1990.




Thursday September 27 2018
German Inflation Rate at Near 7-Year High
Destatis | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's annual inflation rate is expected to increase at 2.3 percent in September 2018 from 2 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 2 percent. It is the highest inflation since November 2011 as prices of services, energy and food are set to rise at a faster pace.

Services inflation is likely to pick up to 1.5 percent in September from 1.4 percent in the previous month, with cost of rents advancing by 1.5 percent, compared with 1.6 percent in August. Also, prices of goods are expected to advance by 3.1 percent in September, following a 2.7 percent gain in August, boosted by prices of both energy (7.7 percent vs 6.9 percent) and food (2.8 percent vs 2.5 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to rise 0.4 percent in September, after growing 0.1 percent in August and beating market consensus of 0.1 percent.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 2.2 percent from the previous year; and by 0.4 percent month-over-month.


Thursday September 13 2018
German August Inflation Rate Confirmed at 2%
Destatis l Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

Germany’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 2 percent in August 2018, unchanged from the previous month. Prices of services and food rose at a softer pace while energy inflation went up further.

Prices of goods rose by 2.7 percent in August, compared with a 2.4 percent rise in the previous month, as energy prices rose further while food inflation slowed slightly. Prices also increased for beers (5.1 percent), newspapers and periodicals (4.5 percent), and tobacco products (3.2 percent). However, prices were down for consumer electronics (-4.8 percent).
Cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages went up 2.4 percent, following a 2.5 percent increase in July. Price increases were observed for edible fats and oils (3 percent), fruit (4.7 percent); dairy products and eggs (4 percent), and vegetables (3.5 percent).
Energy prices went up 6.9 percent, after a 6.6 percent rise in a month earlier. Prices increased mainly for: heating oil (29.7 percent); motor fuels (12.4 percent); electricity (1.0 percent); and charges for central and district heating (2 percent). In contrast, gas prices dropped 1.5 percent.
Services inflation slowed to 1.4 percent from 1.6 percent in July. Upward pressure came from: package holidays (1.9 percent); net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.6 percent); recreational and sporting services (2.9 percent); and maintenance and repair of vehicles (2.8 percent). Meantime, consumers paid less for pre-primary and primary education services (-13 percent); and air tickets (-6.2 percent).
On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.1 percent in August, after a 0.3 percent rise in a month earlier and in line with earlier estimates. Prices of energy rose by 0.7 percent, especially due to heating oil (2.8 percent) and motor fuels (1.2 percent). More substantial price increases were observed for clothing (3.9 percent), especially because the autumn/winter collection has started to arrive. Meantime, price decreases were recorded for pre-primary and primary education services (-18.2 percent) and package holidays (-3.5 percent). Also, prices of food fell 0.3 percent, especially for vegetables (-1.9 percent) and edible fats and oils (-1.3 percent).

The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 1.9 percent from the previous year, and was unchanged month-on-month.



Friday September 07 2018
German Trade Surplus Smallest in 1-1/2 Years
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German trade surplus fell to EUR 16.5 billion in July 2018 from EUR 18.8 billion in the same month a year earlier. It was the smallest trade surplus since January 2017, as imports jumped 12 percent to an all-time high while exports rose at a softer 7.6 percent.

Imports of goods increased by 12 percent from a year earlier to an all-time high of EUR 94.5 billion in July, mainly boosted by purchases from the EU (10.9 percent to EUR 53.7 billion), of which Euro area countries (14.1 percent to EUR 36.1 billion) and other European countries (4.8 percent to EUR 17.6 billion). In addition, imports from countries outside the EU rose by 13.6 percent to EUR 40.8 billion.

Meanwhile, exports went up at a softer 7.6 percent to EUR 111.0 billion, as sales to the EU grew by 8 percent to EUR 64.5 billion, of which Euro area countries (9.5 percent to EUR 41.5 billion) and other European countries (5.5 percent to EUR 23.1 billion). Exports to countries outside the EU increased by 7.1 percent to EUR 46.5 billion. 

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the trade surplus fell to EUR 15.8 billion in July from EUR 19.3 billion in June and below market expectations of EUR 19.0 billion. Exports dropped unexpectedly by 0.9 percent, missing forecasts of a 0.2 percent rise; while imports jumped by 2.8 percent, far above market consensus of a 0.2 percent gain.

Considering January to July, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR 138.3 billion from EUR 140.1 billion in the same period of 2017.



Thursday August 30 2018
German Inflation Rate Holds Steady at 2%
Destatis | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com

Germany's annual inflation rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2 percent in August 2018, in line with market expectations, as prices of services and food are set to rise at a softer pace while energy inflation is likely to pick up further.

Services inflation is likely to ease to 1.4 percent in August from 1.6 percent in the previous month, with cost of rents advancing by 1.6 percent, the same pace as in July. Meanwhile, prices of goods are expected to advance by 2.7 percent in August, compared with 2.4 percent in July, as energy inflation is set to increase to 6.9 percent from 6.6 percent. Food cost is likely to rise at a slightly softer pace (2.5 percent vs 2.6 percent).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices are set to edge up 0.1 percent in August, after growing 0.3 percent in July and also matching market consensus.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is expected to rise by 1.9 percent from the previous year; and to remain unchanged from the previous month.


Thursday August 30 2018
German Jobless Rate Unchanged at Near 38-Year Low
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

German's seasonally adjusted harmonised unemployment rate stood at 3.4 percent in July 2018, unchanged from the previous month's near 38-year low, as the number of unemployed declined further while employment showed no growth.

The number of unemployed people fell by 0.7 percent from a month earlier to 1.47 million in July, while employment was virtually unchanged at 41.68 million.

Compared with July 2017, unemployment dropped by 9.3 percent from 1.62 million people and employment rose by 0.2 percent from 41.60 million.

Youth unemployment rate, measuring job-seekers between 15 and 25 years old, was unchanged at 6.1 percent in July, remaining at the lowest level since March 1992.

Separate data from the Labour Office showed the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed in Germany fell by 8 thousand from a month earlier to 2.33 million in August after a 6 thousand drop in July and in line with market consensus. The unemployment rate came in at 5.2 percent in August, unchanged from the previous month and the lowest since German reunification in 1990.


Friday August 24 2018
German Q2 GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.5%
Destatis | Rida | rida@tradingeconomics.com

The German economy advanced a seasonally-adjusted 0.5 percent on quarter in the three months to June of 2018, following a 0.4 percent growth in the previous period and matching the preliminary estimate.

Positive contributions to the GDP growth came from domestic demand, in particular household consumption (0.2 percentage points), government spending (0.1 percentage points) and gross fixed capital formation (0.1 percentage points). In addition, changes in inventories added 0.4 percentage points to the GDP growth, while net exports contributed negatively (-0.4 percentage points).

Household consumption expanded by 0.3 percent in the second quarter (vs 0.5 percent in Q1) and government spending rose by 0.6 percent (vs -0.3 percent in Q1). Also, there was an increase in gross fixed capital formation (0.5 percent vs 1.4 percent in Q1), driven by investment in machinery and equipment (0.3 percent vs 2.3 percent), in construction (0.6 percent vs 1.6 percent) and in other fixed assets (0.3 percent vs -0.5 percent). Exports of goods and services went up by 0.7 percent in the three months to June (vs -0.3 percent in Q1), and imports climbed by 1.7 percent (vs -0.2 percent in Q1).

Year-on-year, the economy expanded a calendar-adjusted 2 percent in the second quarter, the least since the fourth quarter of 2016, following a 2.1 percent growth in the prior period. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the German economy grew by 2.3 percent in the second quarter, much faster than a 1.4 percent expansion in previous three-month period, boosted by fixed investment (3.4 percent vs 2.2 percent); household consumption (1 percent vs 1.6 percent); and public spending (1 percent vs 0.8 percent). In addition, net trade contributed positively as exports jumped 4.2 percent (vs 2.2 percent in Q1) and imports climbed 4.1 percent (vs 2.7 percent in Q1). Changes in inventories added 0.6 percentage points to the GDP growth.




Tuesday August 14 2018
German July Inflation Rate Confirmed at 2%
Federal Statistical Office | Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com

Germany’s annual inflation rate was confirmed at 2 percent in July 2018, slightly below the previous month's 2.1 percent. Food inflation eased while prices of services and energy rose at a faster pace.

Prices of goods rose at a softer 2.4 percent in July, compared with 2.8 percent in the previous month, as food inflation slowed while energy prices rose further. Prices also increased for newspapers and periodicals (4.8 percent), beer (4.0 percent) and tobacco products (3.5 percent). However, prices were down for consumer electronics (-5.5 percent), information processing equipment (-4.2 percent), clothing (-2.0 percent).
 
Cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 2.5 percent, following a 3.2 percent increase in June. Price increases were observed for all categories, especially edible fats and oils (6.4 percent), of which fruit (5.5 percent); dairy products and eggs (4.0 percent), and vegetables (3.1 percent).

Energy prices went up 6.6 percent, after a 6.4 percent rise in June. Prices increased mainly for: heating oil (28.5 percent); motor fuels (12.0 percent); electricity (1.0 percent); and charges for central and district heating (1.5 percent). In contrast, gas prices dropped 1.3 percent.
 
Services inflation picked up to 1.6 percent in July from 1.5 percent in June. Upward pressure came from: package holidays (4.2 percent); net rents exclusive of heating expenses (1.6 percent); maintenance and repair of vehicles (3.0 percent); and catering services in restaurants, cafes and the like (2.2 percent). Meantime, consumers paid less for air tickets (-6.9 percent).
 
On a monthly basis, the consumer price index increased by 0.3 percent in July, compared to a 0.1 percent rise in June and in line with earlier estimates. Marked seasonal price increases on the previous month were recorded for air tickets (4.4 percent), package holidays (19.3 percent)  Meantime, energy prices were down 0.1 percent, especially due to heating oil (-0.8 percent) and motor fuels (-0.2 percent). In addition, food prices fell 0.5 percent in July, as prices were down especially for fruit (-2.2 percent) and vegetables (-1.2 percent). Also, month-on-month price decreases were recorded for clothing (-6.9 percent) and footwear (-4.1 percent), sometimes as a result of first discounts given on spring and summer articles.
 
The harmonised index of consumer prices rose 2.1 percent from the previous year, and by 0.4 percent month-on-month.