The European Central Bank's policy rate stands at 2.50%. Interest rate futures price an implied rate of 2.60% at the 29 October 2026 decision, 10 basis points above the current level. Markets assign a 0% probability to a cut, 61% to no change and 39% to a hike, with 2.50% the single most likely outcome at 61%.
Trading Economics Implied Policy Rates are measures of how financial markets price future central bank policy decisions. Trading Economics derives market-implied forward curves by combining interest rate futures prices, tied to representative short-term benchmark rates, with scheduled decision dates from its economic calendar. The difference between the implied rate following a policy meeting and the prevailing policy rate reflects the expected basis-point move. Based on this expected change, the market-implied probability of rate adjustments are derived for each upcoming central bank meetings.