Euro Remains Under Pressure Amid Iran Tensions

The euro held steady at $1.152 in subdued trading, amid escalating uncertainty over the prolonged Iran conflict and rising oil prices, while stronger-than-expected US jobs data last week further diminished hopes of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. US President Trump threatened Iran with severe consequences if it fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, though US intelligence suggests compliance is unlikely. Reports also indicate negotiations for a 45-day truce between the US, Iran, and regional mediators, potentially easing the conflict. Crude prices remained near multi-year highs, fueling inflation concerns and prompting investors to rule out any Fed rate cuts this year. In Europe, market expectations have shifted dramatically, with investors now anticipating three interest rate hikes in 2026, a stark contrast to pre-conflict forecasts, which had leaned toward no hikes and even speculation about potential monetary easing.

The euro retreated toward $1.15 as investor caution returned following President Donald Trump’s prime-time address, which offered no clear timeline for resolving the Middle East conflict. While Trump stated that the US operation was nearing completion, he also vowed more aggressive measures, including possible strikes on electrical plants, over the next two to three weeks. The absence of new justifications for the war further dampened market confidence. Amid persistent uncertainty and growing inflation fears, markets are revisiting expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy direction. Investors now foresee three interest rate hikes in 2026, an increase from the two anticipated just yesterday. Before the conflict, expectations had leaned toward no hikes at all, with some even speculating about potential monetary easing.

The euro strengthened in early April, climbing to $1.16 and distancing itself from the seven-month lows recorded in mid-March, following US President Donald Trump’s statement that the US could withdraw from Iran within "two or three weeks," regardless of whether a deal with Tehran is reached. The rebound came after a turbulent March, during which the euro lost 2.2% against the USD, its worst monthly performance since July 2025, amid escalating Middle East tensions. However, the Strait of Hormuz crisis remains unresolved, with the effective closure of the critical waterway continuing to disrupt oil supplies and drive prices upward. Ongoing uncertainty and rising inflation concerns have prompted markets to reassess expectations for the European Central Bank’s policy path. Investors now anticipate two interest rate hikes in 2026, down from projections of three hikes earlier this week. Before the war, investors had anticipated no hikes in 2026, with a slight chance of monetary easing.