The Canadian economy shrank 0.1 percent month-over-month in September of 2018, following a 0.1 percent expansion in August. It was the first monthly contraction since January, as goods-producing industries fell 0.7 percent (from -0.3 percent in August). Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction went down 1.2 percent; with oil and gas extraction subsector declining 2.9 percent, due to both conventional (-2.3 percent) and non-conventional oil and gas extraction (-3.6 percent). Manufacturing drop 0.5 percent, mainly due to non-durable manufacturing (-1.2 percent), particularly food (-2.2 percent), chemical (-1.5 percent) and petroleum and coal products (-1.3 percent). The finance and insurance sector decreased 0.4 percent; the construction sector was down 0.6 percent and wholesale sector contracted 0.7 percent. On the other hand, transportation and warehousing sector expanded 0.9 percent in September. Leading Economic Index in Canada averaged 0.21 percent from 1997 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1.20 percent in September of 2003 and a record low of -1.40 percent in December of 2008.
Leading Economic Index in Canada is expected to be 0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Canada to stand at -0.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada GDP MoM is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.