The Canadian economy expanded 0.2 percent from a month earlier in June 2019, the same pace as in the previous month and above market consensus of 0.1 percent. Goods-producing industries declined 0.2 percent, mostly due to manufacturing (-1.4%), as durable (-0.7%), namely wood products (-4.8%) and fabricated metal (-2.4 %); and non-durable manufacturing dropped (-2.1 percent), of which food (-2.6 percent, the largest decline since October 2012), in particular meat products (-7 percent), plastic and rubber (-5 percent) and chemical manufacturing (-2.3 percent). On the other hand, services-producing industries rose 0.3 percent, boosted by wholesale trade (0.9 percent), led by miscellaneous wholesaling (+3.8%) and machinery, equipment and supplies (+1.0%); retail trade (0.6%), driven by building material and garden equipment and supplies (+4.6%), clothing and clothing accessories stores (+3.9%) and general merchandise stores (+2.4%). Leading Economic Index in Canada averaged 0.20 percent from 1997 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.20 percent in September of 2003 and a record low of -1.40 percent in December of 2008.
Leading Economic Index in Canada is expected to be -0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Canada to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada GDP MoM is projected to trend around 0.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.