The Canadian economy contracted 0.1 percent month-over-month in December 2018, the same pace as in the previous month while markets had expected it to stall. It is the third contraction in four months. The goods-producing industries declined for the fifth consecutive month (-0.7% vs -0.4% in November). Excluding the gain in agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting (1.2%), declines were seen in mining, quarrying, and oil & gas extraction (-0.3%); utilities (-2%); construction (-0.9%) and manufacturing (-0.7%). Meanwhile, the service-producing industries grew 0.2 percent, after showing no growth in November, mainly driven by wholesale trade (0.4%); transportation & warehousing (0.4%); retail trade (0.2%); professional services (0.4%); finance & insurance (0.2%) and accommodation & food services (1%). Year-on-year, the economy grew 1.1 percent compared to a downwardly revised 1.4 percent in November. Leading Economic Index in Canada averaged 0.20 percent from 1997 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1.20 percent in September of 2003 and a record low of -1.40 percent in December of 2008.
Leading Economic Index in Canada is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Canada to stand at 0.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Canada GDP MoM is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.