Ibovespa Fluctuates Ahead of Presidential Runoff

The Ibovespa fluctuated around the 204,000 mark on Friday in the final session before Brazil’s presidential runoff. A Datafolha poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula tied at 50% each of valid votes. Earlier polls also indicated a statistical tie, with Bolsonaro’s lead narrowing compared with previous surveys. Some market participants believe a Flávio Bolsonaro administration would be more likely to rein in public spending, although neither the candidate nor his economic advisers have outlined concrete fiscal adjustments. Financial stocks mostly traded lower, with Itaú edging down and Banco do Brasil and Itaúsa losing more than 0.5%. Bradesco fell nearly 2.5% despite reporting third-quarter earnings in line with market expectations and announcing a share buyback program. In contrast, Petrobras rose nearly 2% as oil prices climbed following fresh attacks in the Middle East. Vale gained nearly 1% as iron ore prices rebounded. On the week, the Ibovespa shed over 0.5%.

The Ibovespa fell 1.1% to close at 204,120 on Thursday amid uncertainty over the presidential race and corporate earnings. On Wednesday, a Quaest poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula narrowing to one percentage point, leaving the candidates statistically tied just four days before Sunday’s presidential runoff. Many market participants believe a Flávio administration would be more likely to rein in public spending, although neither the candidate nor his economic advisers have outlined concrete fiscal adjustments. Datafolha is scheduled to release a new presidential voting-intention poll after the market close on Thursday. Financial stocks declined, with Itaú down 1.8%, Itaúsa losing 2.6% and Bradesco shedding 2.1% ahead of its earnings release later in the day. Vale dropped 4% amid falling iron ore prices, with the miner set to report results next week. WEG slipped 2.7% after plunging 7% on Wednesday following disappointing results.

The Ibovespa edged lower, hovering near 205,500 on Thursday amid speculation over the presidential race and corporate earnings. On Wednesday, a Quaest poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over Lula narrowing to one percentage point, leaving the candidates statistically tied just four days before Sunday’s presidential runoff. Many market participants believe a Flávio administration would be more likely to rein in public spending, although neither the candidate nor his economic advisers have outlined concrete fiscal adjustments. Datafolha is scheduled to release a new presidential voting-intention poll after the market close today. Financial stocks fell, with Itaú down 0.8%, and Bradesco shedding 1% ahead of its earnings due later today. Vale dropped 2% amid falling iron ore prices, with the miner set to report results next week. WEG slipped 0.1% after plunging 7% yesterday on disappointing results. Petrobras (+1%) helped limit losses in the index, supported by a resume in the oil rally.