Ibovespa Hits Record High on Election Polls

2026-10-09 20:53 By Isabela Couto 1 min. read

The Ibovespa rose 1.4% to close at a record 209,067 on Friday as the first voting-intention polls released after the first round confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over President Lula in the runoff.

Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, strengthening expectations that a potential administration could tighten control over public spending and improve Brazil’s fiscal position.

The race remains tight, with some polls showing a statistical tie.

Financial stocks were mostly higher, with Itaú up 2.3%, BB and Itaúsa gaining 1.6% each, and B3 advancing 2.5%.

Petrobras rose 0.9% despite volatile oil prices.

Vale turned positive late in the session, closing up 0.38% in a narrow range after iron ore prices hit multi-month lows.

Retailers posted sharp gains as yields fell following the polls, despite rising inflation and a reading above the upper limit of the BCB’s target range.

Magazine Luiza soared 19.2%.

The Ibovespa gained 8.82% this week, its strongest weekly performance of 2026.



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Ibovespa Hits Record High on Election Polls
The Ibovespa rose 1.4% to close at a record 209,067 on Friday as the first voting-intention polls released after the first round confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro’s lead over President Lula in the runoff. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive, strengthening expectations that a potential administration could tighten control over public spending and improve Brazil’s fiscal position. The race remains tight, with some polls showing a statistical tie. Financial stocks were mostly higher, with Itaú up 2.3%, BB and Itaúsa gaining 1.6% each, and B3 advancing 2.5%. Petrobras rose 0.9% despite volatile oil prices. Vale turned positive late in the session, closing up 0.38% in a narrow range after iron ore prices hit multi-month lows. Retailers posted sharp gains as yields fell following the polls, despite rising inflation and a reading above the upper limit of the BCB’s target range. Magazine Luiza soared 19.2%. The Ibovespa gained 8.82% this week, its strongest weekly performance of 2026.
2026-10-09
Ibovespa Rises Following Election Runoff Polls
The Ibovespa rose about 1% to near 208,000 on Friday following the release of the first polls for the presidential runoff. A Datafolha poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 49% of voting intentions against 45% for President Lula, a statistical tie at the limit of the survey’s two-percentage-point margin of error. An Atlas/Bloomberg poll put Flávio ahead at 51.1%, compared with 45.7% for Lula, ending the statistical tie in the previous survey’s runoff scenario. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. His economic team is considering spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP. Financials posted solid gains, with Banco do Brasil up nearly 2%, Bradesco and Itaú rising more than 1% and B3 adding about 2.5%. Utilities also advanced, with Axia up more than 1% and Sabesp gaining about 2%. Vale edged higher as iron ore prices stabilized after reaching multi-month lows amid weakening steel margins.
2026-10-09
Ibovespa Gains Ahead of Election Runoff Poll
The Ibovespa rose 0.9% to close at 206,220 on Thursday ahead of the first Datafolha poll for the presidential runoff, due shortly after the close. A PoderData/Aya poll showed Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 53% of valid votes, against 47% for incumbent Lula. In Sunday’s first-round election, Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula, contrary to most polls, pushing the index to an all-time high on Monday, led by financial stocks. Markets view the senator as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. His economic team is considering spending cuts equivalent to around 2% of GDP. Financials traded mixed, with B3 gaining 2% and Bradesco falling 1.3%. Petrobras followed the sharp rise in international oil prices, gaining 2.1%. Retail stocks also supported the index, with Magazine Luiza jumping 5.6%. Meanwhile, Vale extended its losing streak to four sessions, falling 1.6% as iron ore prices hit an 18-month low in China.
2026-10-08