Ibovespa Near Flat Amid Macroeconomic Concerns

The Ibovespa hovered near the flatline at around 186,000 on Thursday following the release of the BCB’s monetary policy report. The BCB said the recent oil price shock has not yet generated significant inflationary pass-through through indirect effects on the Brazilian economy, despite direct impacts on prices. The central bank also cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.0% in June. Meanwhile, the federal government decided to reduce the 2026 budget spending block by R$1.9 billion, bringing the total amount blocked to R$16.1 billion, amid concerns over elevated government spending. Financials posted losses, with Bradesco and BB down about 0.5% each, while B3 shed nearly 1%. Utilities also fell, with Axia down 0.5%. Other notable laggards included WEG (-2%) and Embraer (-1%). In contrast, Petrobras rose more than 0.5% as oil prices climbed on Middle East tensions. Likewise, Vale added nearly 0.5% amid iron ore supply concerns in Brazil.

The Ibovespa fell 0.9% to close at 185,814 on Wednesday following new election polls and a rebound in oil prices. An AtlasIntel poll for October’s presidential election showed President Lula regaining a numerical lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff, although the candidates remain in a statistical tie. Oil prices rose amid uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Energy-driven inflation concerns persisted. In addition, Copom’s minutes from its latest meeting, released yesterday, were more hawkish than expected. Financials weighed on the index, with Itaú down 1.9%, Bradesco and Banco do Brasil both falling 2.2%, and Itaúsa shedding 1.9%. Utilities also traded lower, with Sabesp losing nearly 2.8%. Vale fell 1.8% amid weak profitability among Chinese steelmakers. Petrobras gained 2.6% on rising oil prices.

The Ibovespa moved between gains and losses close to the 188,000 mark on Wednesday following new election polls and amid volatile oil prices. An AtlasIntel poll for October’s presidential election showed President Lula regaining a numerical lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential second-round runoff, although the candidates remain in a statistical tie. Oil prices moved higher, paring earlier losses amid uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Energy-driven inflation concerns persisted despite the slowdown in the oil rally in recent weeks. In addition, Copom’s minutes from its latest meeting, released yesterday, were more hawkish than expected. Financials weighed on the index, with Itaú, Bradesco, and Itaúsa down over 0.5% each, while B3 shed nearly 2%. Utilities also traded lower, with Axia and Sabesp losing nearly 1%. Vale fell nearly 1% amid weak profitability among Chinese steelmakers. Petrobras gained nearly 2%.