Ibovespa Rises on Enegy Gains and Selic Cut Expectations

The Ibovespa rose nearly 1% to trade close to 179,000 on Tuesday, supported by energy shares and renewed expectations of continued Selic easing. Petrobras gained more than 1.5% as renewed hostilities in the Middle East lifted oil prices, while PRIO added over 1%. Higher energy costs and expectations of a Fed hike pushed global bond yields higher, pressuring financials and broader markets. Still, signs of a gradual moderation in economic activity raised expectations for further Selic cuts, supporting the index. Brazil’s GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026, but a decline in household spending reflected weakness for consumers. Although the BCB has begun an easing cycle, the Selic rate remains elevated at 14%. Utilities were mostly higher, while retailers gained about 1%.

The Ibovespa rose 1% to close at 177,419 on Monday following new presidential election polls. The BTG/Nexus poll showed President Lula with 46% of voting intentions in a potential runoff versus 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a technical tie. Markets view Bolsonaro as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity. The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula with 47.1% and Bolsonaro with 42.6%, narrowing Lula’s lead to 4.5 percentage points from 6.3 points in July. General government gross debt rose to 82.5% of GDP in July. Still, the government targets a primary surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2027. Finance Minister Durigan defended strengthening the current fiscal rule and said some social policies could cease to be “mandatory.” Major banks rose, led by Banco do Brasil, up 2.8%. Petrobras jumped 3.4% as oil prices rebounded. The Ibovespa fell 0.3% during August.

The Ibovespa rose about 1% to hover around the 178,000 mark on Monday following the release of new presidential election polls. The BTG/Nexus poll showed President Lula with 46% of voting intentions in a potential runoff versus 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro, viewed by markets as more fiscally restrictive amid elevated domestic yields and weak business activity, a technical tie. The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Lula with 47.1% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 42.6% in a potential runoff, with Lula’s lead narrowing to 4.5 percentage points from 6.3 points in the previous poll released in July. Gains were broad-based, with Petrobras (+3%) outperforming as oil prices rebounded amid escalating Middle East tensions, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes for the first time in roughly a month. Major banks rose by up to more than 2%. Utilities also advanced, with Axia up over 1%. Vale gained about 1% as iron ore prices increased.