Ibovespa Falls as Oil Prices Rally

The Ibovespa edged 0.2% lower to close at 172,180 on Monday as oil prices jumped after prospects for an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz weakened. US President Donald Trump criticized Iran's demands for war compensation, while Tehran said Washington must lift its blockade before agreeing to fully reopen the waterway. Higher energy prices reignited inflation concerns, weighing on banks and the broader index. Itaú shed 0.8% and Bradesco lost 0.7%. Axia dropped 2.3% despite brokerages highlighting significant dividend potential and raising their price targets. Petrobras gained 3.3% on higher oil prices, while Vale added 1.3% despite lower iron ore prices. Embraer climbed 2.3% following a better-than-expected 2Q26 earnings report. Itaúsa shed 0.7% ahead of its results, due after the close, while Caixa Seguridade (-2%), Natura (-2.4%), and JBS (-1.7%) are also scheduled to report.

The Ibovespa was little changed near 173,000 on Monday amid another batch of corporate earnings reports. Embraer gained nearly 7% after reporting adjusted net income of R$1.11 billion in 2Q26, up from R$890.3 million a year earlier. Itaúsa edged higher ahead of its results, due after the close, Caixa Seguridade (-0.5%), Natura (-0.1%), and JBS (-0.5%) are also scheduled to report. BTG Pactual and B3 are due to release results tomorrow. Meanwhile, oil prices rose amid unresolved Middle East tensions, lifting Petrobras by over 1%. Financials were mixed, with Itaú and Banco do Brasil gaining while Bradesco and BB Seguridade edged lower. The Focus Bulletin showed the 2026 inflation forecast easing slightly to 5.02% from 5.03%, while the year-end Selic forecast remained at 13.75% after being cut from 14.0% the previous week.

The Ibovespa fell 1.7% to close at 177,513 on Friday amid another batch of second-quarter 2026 earnings reports. Petrobras shed 3%, erasing earlier gains despite delivering one of its strongest earnings reports in recent quarters and beating expectations, as much of the strong performance had already been priced in and uncertainty remained over its sustainability. Localiza also fell 0.8% despite reporting R$1 billion in net profit, up 30.6% from a year earlier. Magazine Luiza dropped 3.7% following weak results and concerns over profitability, while Renner plunged 8.1% after cutting its guidance amid concerns about sales. Elsewhere, Vale fell 0.6% despite higher iron ore prices. Banks also declined broadly, led by Bradesco, down 2.2%, and Itaú Unibanco, which fell 2.6% ahead of the release of the Copom minutes on Tuesday, which are expected to provide further insight into the monetary authority's outlook for the Selic rate.