Ibovespa Wavers as Oil Prices Slide

The Ibovespa fluctuated around the 177,000 level on Monday as renewed hopes for a Middle East peace agreement weighed on energy commodity prices. Oil fell after US President Donald Trump canceled a planned military strike on Iran and announced new negotiations with Tehran, sending Petrobras down more than 2%. Vale also lost nearly 1% as iron ore prices declined. Financial stocks outperformed on easing inflation concerns, with Itaú and Bradesco gaining around 0.5%. BB Seguridade also rose 0.5% ahead of its earnings release. The BCB Focus Survey lowered its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.03% from 5.12% and cut its year-end Selic projection to 13.75% from 14.00%, reinforcing expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy. Elsewhere, Embraer climbed more than 2.5% after BNDES approved R$3.3-3.7 billion in financing to support exports of up to 19 aircraft to Canada's Porter Aviation Holdings.

The Ibovespa rose 0.5% to close at 177,999 on Friday as investors digested Vale's earnings and Santander's tender offer to repurchase shares in Brazil. Santander surged 15.2% following the announcement. Vale added 0.2% after reporting 2Q26 earnings and revenue above expectations and raising its 2026 guidance, despite a 35% drop in profit. Petrobras extended gains, rising 1.3% as oil prices climbed amid renewed tensions between the US and Iran. WEG (+0.8%), Sabesp (+1.1%), Rede D'Or (+0.6%), and Embraer (+0.9%) also advanced. Trading opened later than scheduled due to an operational failure at the stock exchange, raising concerns about market reliability, particularly among foreign investors. On the macro front, Brazil's gross public debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 81.9% in June from 81.0% in May, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs may remain elevated.

The Ibovespa edged higher to trade above 177,500 on Friday after the market opening was delayed due to operational issues. The delay is expected to concentrate orders that would have been executed throughout the morning, increasing the potential for volatility. Petrobras gained nearly 0.5% amid higher oil prices. Major banks also advanced, with Itaú rising more than 1%. Vale (-0.5%) reported 2Q26 earnings and revenue above expectations and raised its 2026 guidance, but posted a 35% decline in profit. Multiplan (+0.5%) is also set to hold a conference call after reporting second-quarter net profit above market forecasts. Meanwhile, Braskem (-2%) recorded lower sales in 2Q26, pressured by weaker demand for key chemicals. On the macro front, Brazil’s gross public debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 81.9% in June from 81.0% in May. The deterioration in fiscal accounts reinforced expectations that borrowing costs may remain elevated.