Ibovespa Slips Following Election Poll and US-Iran Tensions

The Ibovespa edged lower to trade below 176,500 on Wednesday following the release of a new election poll and amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. A Genial/Quaest survey showed President Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro by eight percentage points in a hypothetical second-round runoff. Oil prices rose as the worsening US-Iran conflict continued to fuel concerns over global supply disruptions. Higher energy prices also revived inflation worries. Financials traded lower, with Itaú, Bradesco, and Banco do Brasil edging down. Meanwhile, WEG lost more than 1.5% after Citi said the company's revenue growth is expected to remain under pressure from the stronger Brazilian real and weaker domestic demand, while profit margins are likely to stay below recent historical averages. Ambev also shed about 1.5% despite receiving a "buy" recommendation from BB Investimentos.

The Ibovespa added 0.5% to close at 176,641 on Tuesday, recovering from the previous session's losses after softer-than-expected US inflation data. US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years, while core inflation was little changed, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Most financial stocks traded higher, with Itaúsa up 0.6% and Banco do Brasil adding 1.7%. Utilities also posted gains, with Axia up 0.5%. Meanwhile, Vale jumped 1.5% as iron ore prices surged on expectations that impending Chinese restrictions on selected Fortescue portside cargoes will tighten supply. Vivo advanced 2.3% after recording a net gain of 23,000 customers, its largest increase since March 2025. Rede D'Or gained 1.4% as it advanced its joint venture with Bradsaúde (+0.7%). Bradsaúde announced on Monday that it had completed the transaction to contribute Rede D'Or's real estate assets to Atlântica D'Or.

The Ibovespa gained more than 0.5% to trade near 177,000 on Tuesday, recovering from the previous session's losses after softer-than-expected US inflation data. US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years, while core inflation was little changed, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Financials traded higher, with Itaú, Bradesco, and Itaúsa up nearly 1%. Utilities also posted gains, with Axia and Sabesp adding 0.5%. Meanwhile, Vale jumped more than 2% as iron ore prices surged on expectations that impending Chinese restrictions on selected Fortescue portside cargoes will tighten supply. Other notable gainers included Ambev (+1%), Rede D'Or (+1%), and Vivo (+1.5%).