Ibovespa Gains on US-Iran Peace Deal Prospects

The Ibovespa edged up to trade near the 177,000 mark on Monday as prospects for an agreement to end the war in Iran supported risk appetite. US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that a memorandum of understanding on a potential deal with Iran was “largely negotiated,” while both countries and mediators in Pakistan pointed to progress in talks. Oil prices fell below $100 per barrel on hopes that an agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing stagflation concerns and pushing bond yields lower. Banks traded higher, with Itaú rising more than 1.5% and Bradesco adding over 1%. B3 advanced more than 1.5% after JPMorgan Chase raised its target price for the stock. Other notable gainers included Ambev (+0.8%) and WEG (+1.4%). In contrast, Petrobras fell nearly 2% amid the decline in oil prices.

The Ibovespa fell 1% to close at 176,210 on Friday, pressured by losses in major banks and energy producers. The banking sector continued to weaken after months of strong gains in the stock market. Aside from Banco do Brasil, which rose 0.6%, major lenders closed sharply lower, with Bradesco down 1.6%, Itaú Unibanco losing 1.7%, and Santander Brasil falling 1.8%. Weakness in financials also weighed on B3, which dropped 2.1%. Petrobras shed 1% amid volatile oil prices, while junior oil companies traded mixed, with Prio up 0.6% and Brava Energia down 1.8%. Vale gained 0.6% despite iron ore posting a weekly loss. Investors also assessed a new election poll showing President Lula opening a nine-point lead in the first round following controversy involving Flávio Bolsonaro and former Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro, who faces fraud charges. Markets now await next week’s key economic releases, including Brazil’s first-quarter GDP data.

The Ibovespa lost nearly 1% to trade below 176,500 on Friday amid losses for major energy producers and banks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday that there had been “some positive signs” in negotiations, although disagreements remained over Tehran’s uranium stockpile and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors remained concerned about disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, which have driven oil prices sharply higher since the start of the conflict and shifted global interest rate expectations amid inflation concerns. However, Petrobras fell nearly 2%. Utilities also traded lower, with Axia and Sabesp down more than 1%. Other laggards included Ambev (-1%) and Rede D'Or (-1%). Also, Santander and Itausa lost more than 1%.