Ibovespa Slides Despite Mideast Ceasefire Prospects

The Ibovespa fell 0.46% to close at 196,819.00 on Thursday, retreating from recent highs despite an extra lift after President Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. While optimism over reopening the Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment, it wasn't enough to sustain the index. Oil prices rose amid supply uncertainty, significantly boosting Petrobras by 4.39%, but this was offset by broader market weakness. Vale dropped 1.06% and Ambev tumbled 2.59% following a UBS downgrade to Sell, while WEG led the losses with a 3.26% decline. Major banks also struggled, with Itaúsa and Banco do Brasil falling 1.53% and 0.86% respectively. On the data front, the IBC-Br rose 0.6% monthly in February, beating forecasts due to a 1.2% industrial expansion, although the index continues to reflect an annual contraction of 1.3%.

The Ibovespa was little changed around the 198,000 mark on Thursday, hovering near the record highs reached earlier in the week, as optimism over a potential peace deal in the Middle East continued to support investor sentiment. A key Pakistani mediator in Tehran and the Trump administration indicated progress toward a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices continued to rise amid supply uncertainty, though well below recent peaks, tempering gains for Petrobras, up 0.3%. Meanwhile, that lifted major banks as energy-driven stagflation fears eased. Itaú gained 0.5%, while Bradesco and Banco do Brasil each advanced 1%. Also, Vale rose 1% on higher iron ore prices. In contrast, Ambev lost more than 2% after UBS downgraded it from sell to neutral. On the data front, the IBC-Br rose 0.6% monthly, slightly above forecasts of 0.5%, led by a 1.2% industrial expansion.

The Ibovespa inched down to near 197,738 on Wednesday, as investors adjusted positions after the prior session's record while monitoring Middle East peace deal prospects. US President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could resume in Pakistan soon. Oil prices edged higher but remained below recent highs, even as the US continued to enforce a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Banks traded mixed, with Itaú gaining 0.81% while Bradesco lost over 0.33%. Meanwhile, Banco do Brasil lost over 4% after Itaú BBA downgraded it to underperform. Elsewhere, Vale gained about 0.1% on higher iron ore quotes. In contrast, Petrobras shed near 1.1% as the oil rally cooled down. Also, WEG lost nearly 2% as investors digest lower expectations for Q1 2026 results.