Ibovespa Rises After Fed Cut and Copom Hold

The Ibovespa gained nearly 0.5% to trade above 197,500 on Friday, after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed the Strait is now fully open to all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire. Oil prices plummeted and bond yields fell, supporting banking stocks and the broader market. Itaú and Banco do Brasil each rose nearly 2%, while Bradesco gained about 2.5%. In addition, Vale climbed more than 1.5% on resilient Q1 2026 production and sales, prompting Itaú BBA to slightly raise its Ebitda proforma estimate. Utilities also advanced, with Axia and Eneva each up 3%. Other notable gains included Ambev (+1.5%), WEG (+1%), Embraer (+2.5%), and Rede D'Or (+2%). Petrobras, however, slumped over 4% on falling oil prices, shedding earlier gains from the announcement of its acquisition of a stake in offshore block 3 in São Tomé and Príncipe.

The Ibovespa fell 0.46% to close at 196,819.00 on Thursday, retreating from recent highs despite an extra lift after President Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. While optimism over reopening the Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment, it wasn't enough to sustain the index. Oil prices rose amid supply uncertainty, significantly boosting Petrobras by 4.39%, but this was offset by broader market weakness. Vale dropped 1.06% and Ambev tumbled 2.59% following a UBS downgrade to Sell, while WEG led the losses with a 3.26% decline. Major banks also struggled, with Itaúsa and Banco do Brasil falling 1.53% and 0.86% respectively. On the data front, the IBC-Br rose 0.6% monthly in February, beating forecasts due to a 1.2% industrial expansion, although the index continues to reflect an annual contraction of 1.3%.

The Ibovespa was little changed around the 198,000 mark on Thursday, hovering near the record highs reached earlier in the week, as optimism over a potential peace deal in the Middle East continued to support investor sentiment. A key Pakistani mediator in Tehran and the Trump administration indicated progress toward a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices continued to rise amid supply uncertainty, though well below recent peaks, tempering gains for Petrobras, up 0.3%. Meanwhile, that lifted major banks as energy-driven stagflation fears eased. Itaú gained 0.5%, while Bradesco and Banco do Brasil each advanced 1%. Also, Vale rose 1% on higher iron ore prices. In contrast, Ambev lost more than 2% after UBS downgraded it from sell to neutral. On the data front, the IBC-Br rose 0.6% monthly, slightly above forecasts of 0.5%, led by a 1.2% industrial expansion.