Brazil Retail Sales Miss Forecasts in February

Brazil’s retail sales increased 0.5% month-over-month in March 2026, following a 0.7% gain in February and beating expectations of a flat reading. Retail activity was broadly positive, with five of the eight surveyed sectors posting growth. The strongest increases came from office equipment, IT and communication supplies (5.7%), fuels and lubricants (2.9%), other personal and household goods (2.9%), books and stationery (0.7%), and pharmaceutical and personal care products (0.1%). In contrast, furniture and household appliances fell 0.9%, while supermarkets, food, beverages and tobacco declined 1.4%. Textiles, apparel and footwear were unchanged. Regionally, 19 of Brazil’s 27 states recorded gains, led by Maranhão (3.8%), Amazonas (3.7%), and Piauí (3.5%). Expanded retail sales rose 0.3%, while annual retail sales advanced 4.0%.

Brazil's retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in February 2026, missing forecasts of 1.0% and following a 0.4% gain in January. Results were evenly split between gains and losses. Top performers included books, newspapers and stationery (2.4%), fuels and lubricants (1.7%), supermarkets and food products (1.1%), and pharmaceutical and personal care items (0.3%). Meanwhile, office equipment and IT (-2.7%), other personal and household goods (-0.6%), textiles, apparel and footwear (-0.3%), and furniture and appliances (-0.1%) weighed on the index. Regionally, 17 of 27 states posted positive results on a seasonally adjusted basis, led by Paraná (2.9%), Bahia (2.7%), and Minas Gerais (2.5%). Expanded retail, which includes vehicles, motorcycles, parts, construction materials, and food wholesale, grew 1.0%.

Retail sales in Brazil rose by 0.4% from the previous month in January of 2026, erasing the 0.4% drop in the previous month and contrasting with the median market forecasts of a 0.1% decrease. The release reflected some traction for Brazilian consumers after low private consumption negatively impacted the fourth-quarter GDP growth and forced the Brazilian central bank to signal the start of rate cuts in March. Retail volumes were sharply higher for pharmaceutical and medical goods (2.6% vs -5% in December), clothing and footwear (1.8% vs -0.2%), and retail in supermarkets (0.4% vs -0.2%). These offset the drop in books and stationery (-1.8% vs -2.3%) and office equipment (-9.3% vs 8%). From the previous year, retail volumes were 2.8% higher from the 2.3% increase in December, a fifth consecutive acceleration.