Brazil Retail Sales Miss Forecasts in February

Brazil's retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in February 2026, missing forecasts of 1.0% and following a 0.4% gain in January. Results were evenly split between gains and losses. Top performers included books, newspapers and stationery (2.4%), fuels and lubricants (1.7%), supermarkets and food products (1.1%), and pharmaceutical and personal care items (0.3%). Meanwhile, office equipment and IT (-2.7%), other personal and household goods (-0.6%), textiles, apparel and footwear (-0.3%), and furniture and appliances (-0.1%) weighed on the index. Regionally, 17 of 27 states posted positive results on a seasonally adjusted basis, led by Paraná (2.9%), Bahia (2.7%), and Minas Gerais (2.5%). Expanded retail, which includes vehicles, motorcycles, parts, construction materials, and food wholesale, grew 1.0%.

Retail sales in Brazil rose by 0.4% from the previous month in January of 2026, erasing the 0.4% drop in the previous month and contrasting with the median market forecasts of a 0.1% decrease. The release reflected some traction for Brazilian consumers after low private consumption negatively impacted the fourth-quarter GDP growth and forced the Brazilian central bank to signal the start of rate cuts in March. Retail volumes were sharply higher for pharmaceutical and medical goods (2.6% vs -5% in December), clothing and footwear (1.8% vs -0.2%), and retail in supermarkets (0.4% vs -0.2%). These offset the drop in books and stationery (-1.8% vs -2.3%) and office equipment (-9.3% vs 8%). From the previous year, retail volumes were 2.8% higher from the 2.3% increase in December, a fifth consecutive acceleration.

Retail sales fell 0.4% month-over-month in December 2025, after rising 1.0% in November. Six of eight core activities declined: pharmaceuticals (-5.1%), books (-2.0%), other personal goods (-1.8%), furniture and appliances (-0.7%), apparel (-0.4%), and supermarkets (-0.3%). Office and IT equipment increased 6.0%, and fuels rose 0.3%. Extended retail, which includes vehicles, construction materials, and wholesale food, dropped 1.2% month-over-month. Vehicles fell 2.4%, and construction materials declined 2.8%. Year-on-year, retail sales rose 2.3%. In 2025, the sector expanded 1.6%, marking the ninth consecutive annual increase.