Brazil Central Bank Cuts Selic Rate Amid Uncertainty

Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 14.25% at its June meeting, in line with market expectations and marking a third straight quarter-point rate cut. Policymakers said the decision was taken amid heightened uncertainty and aims to support economic activity without compromising their commitment to price stability. The central bank highlighted persistent inflationary pressures despite easing energy costs following the interim Iran-US peace agreement. Annual inflation accelerated to 4.72% in May, remaining above the target range, while inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 stayed elevated at 5.3% and 4.1%, respectively. At the same time, domestic economic activity remained resilient, supported by a strong labor market, with GDP expanding 1.1% in the first quarter and the central bank’s activity index rising 0.51% in April. The Copom emphasized that risks to inflation remain elevated and that future policy decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark rate to 14.50% at its April 29 meeting, in line with forecasts. The monetary policy council cited an uncertain external environment due to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which are affecting global financial conditions. National indicators continue to show a moderating economic growth trajectory, while the labor market remains resilient. Headline and underlying inflation have accelerated, moving further away from the target. Inflation expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain above target, at 4.9% and 4.0% respectively. Inflation risks are higher than usual and projections show further divergence from the target within the policy horizon. However, as uncertainty regarding these projections has increased considerably amid lack of clarity on the duration of the US-Iran conflict and it's effects, the committee deemed it appropriate to continue the monetary policy calibration cycle.

Brazil’s central bank reduced its benchmark rate to 14.75% in March, less than the expected 50bps reduction, saying a monetary policy calibration cycle is needed as the prolonged hold provided evidence of transmission on the slowdown in economic activity. External factors such as the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and global financial volatility continue to affect emerging markets, while domestically growth is moderating even as the labour market remains resilient and inflation has improved but stays above target. Inflation expectations stand at 4.1% for 2026 and 3.8% for 2027, and Copom projects inflation at 3.3% by the third quarter of 2027. The committee flagged upside risks from persistent services inflation and a more depreciated exchange rate, and downside risks from a more pronounced global slowdown or reduction in commodity prices, judging that this decision remains consistent with converging inflation to target while smoothing the cycle.