Brazil’s 10-Year Bond Yield Nears Post-Election High

2026-10-29 21:05 By Isabela Couto 1 min. read

Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 15.4%, the highest since the 15.6% touched immediately after President Lula’s runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro.

Investors remain focused on fiscal policy, particularly the government’s commitment to controlling spending and public debt, which has risen significantly in recent years.

Concerns over the lack of fiscal adjustment have intensified amid uncertainty over key appointments, including the Finance Ministry, and the direction of fiscal policy in Lula’s next term.

Major banks have raised mortgage rates as rising funding costs weigh on lending conditions.

In less than a week, Bradesco and Itaú announced increases in home loan rates amid rising government and corporate bond yields and market volatility.

Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US GDP growth and accelerating PCE inflation fueled volatility in US Treasury yields, with spillover effects on Brazil’s bond market.



News Stream
Brazil’s 10-Year Bond Yield Nears Post-Election High
Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 15.4%, the highest since the 15.6% touched immediately after President Lula’s runoff victory over Flávio Bolsonaro. Investors remain focused on fiscal policy, particularly the government’s commitment to controlling spending and public debt, which has risen significantly in recent years. Concerns over the lack of fiscal adjustment have intensified amid uncertainty over key appointments, including the Finance Ministry, and the direction of fiscal policy in Lula’s next term. Major banks have raised mortgage rates as rising funding costs weigh on lending conditions. In less than a week, Bradesco and Itaú announced increases in home loan rates amid rising government and corporate bond yields and market volatility. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected US GDP growth and accelerating PCE inflation fueled volatility in US Treasury yields, with spillover effects on Brazil’s bond market.
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Brazil’s 10-Year Yield Retreats After National Treasury Intervention
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Brazil’s 10-year government bond yield surged to around 15.45% in late October, after reaching as much as 15.6% earlier, remaining at its highest level in a decade, as Brazilian assets sold off following President Lula’s victory over Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential runoff. The move reversed optimism after the first round, when Bolsonaro outperformed polls and finished ahead of Lula. Investors had viewed a Bolsonaro administration as more likely to curb public spending, seen as key to lowering interest rates. Markets are now reassessing fiscal risks, including persistent primary deficits and rising public debt, as well as institutional uncertainty surrounding the election. Meanwhile, Brazil’s National Treasury canceled the fixed-rate and inflation-linked bond auctions scheduled for Tuesday and Thursday but maintained Tuesday’s auction of Selic-linked securities.
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